This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have a spread out schedule Saturday, with games played throughout the day. That leaves us with only a six-game main slate kicking off at 7:05 pm ET. There's plenty of strong pitching available nevertheless, both based on skills and the park factors of the stadiums featured in tonight's action.
Pitchers
Logan Webb ($10,600) is the highest-priced pitcher and has deserved that status based on his results to this point in the season. He has a relatively modest 25.5 percent strikeout rate but has an excellent 3.10 SIERA while averaging 21.2 DK points per start. A matchup against the Nationals is unimposing, though they strike out at the second-lowest rate in the league (18.9 percent), so this may not be a ceiling game for Webb.
Zack Wheeler ($9,800) is another high-priced pitcher worth highlighting. His 4.04 ERA is disappointing, though that's largely caused by an unlucky 68 percent left-on-base rate. Compared to Webb, Wheeler has a superior strikeout rate and K-BB%. The matchup is similar to Webb's, as the Guardians aren't imposing but make a lot of contact.
Those looking for upside while willing to take on more risk could turn to Dylan Cease ($8,600) and Reid Detmers ($7,500). Detmers has arguably been a better pitcher this season, as he boasts superior skills across the board. A matchup against the Pirates — among the worst offenses in the league — helps his case as well. Cease is a tournament-only option, but he arguably has the highest ceiling of any pitcher available. He's also aided by matchup, as the Twins strike out at the highest rate in the league.
Another risk but potential punt option is Allan Winans ($6,000). He's making his big-league debut for Atlanta and profiles as a good groundball pitcher but likely one without much upside. However, the price is right, particularly in a matchup against the pitcher-friendly Brewers lineup.
Top Hitters
There aren't a ton of pitchers to pick on, but Josiah Gray is one. After showing an improved ability to limit home runs early on this season, he has served up 1.6 HR/9 and 2.7 HR/9, respectively, across the last two months. That should attract us to the Giants, and Blake Sabol ($3,900) is arguably the hottest hitter on the team.
Adrian Houser has limited home runs, but the rest of his profile is poor. In particular, he has only a 15.5 percent strikeout rate. That isn't likely to work well against the potent Atlanta lineup, and Matt Olson ($6,400) is particularly likely to make him pay.
Value Bats
Zach Neto ($3,100) remains the locked-in leadoff hitter for the Angels. In good matchups, that alone makes him a value. He gets that with Osvaldo Bido on the mound, who has only a 10.2 K-BB% and a 4.87 SIERA. He's also averaged 10.7 DK points per game across his last 10 games.
Zack Gelof ($3,200) has had mixed results since his debut. He's struck out 32.1 percent of the time, but he also has four extra-base hits, two stolen bases and four runs scored. Cristian Javier got back on track his last time out but has looked vulnerable of late.
Stacks to Consider
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals (Josiah Gray): LaMonte Wade ($4,200), Joc Pederson ($4,500), Wilmer Flores ($3,400)
We discussed the reasons for targeting Gray, but to be a bit more specific, he's one of only two pitchers available who's allowed 1.2 HR/9 and the only one with a walk rate above 10 percent. San Francisco doesn't have a ton of star power up and down its roster, but the lineup is optimized on a near daily basis. That makes them a good option to consider in positive matchups. It's also a relatively cheap stack, which should leave enough salary to pay up at pitcher.
Atlanta vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Adrian Houser): Ronald Acuna ($6,600), Ozzie Albies ($6,300), Matt Olson ($6,400)
This is the layup of the day, due to both the quality of the lineup and the matchup. As a whole, Atlanta has a .355 wOBA and .225 ISO — both the highest marks in the league. Houser has the lowest K-BB% of all pitchers available for the night as well as the highest SIERA. That combination is likely to lead to a lot of runs scored. The obvious downside is the cost of the lineup, though there is some correlation between Winans and the lineup that will balance out some of the cost.
