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MLB Single Game Bets: Rangers at Pirates for Tuesday, May 23
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Last article: 2-2 (-0.40 RW Bucks)
2023 regular-season record: 2-6 (-4.40 RW Bucks)
I'm honed in on an interleague matchup between two veteran pitchers Tuesday night where I see a clear edge on paper for the visitors.
Texas Rangers 
at Pittsburgh Pirates 
Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has gotten his Texas tenure off to a rousing start, producing a 5-2 record, 2.83 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and minuscule 0.4 HR/9 across 60.1 innings over his first nine outings. The veteran right-hander's 2.45 FIP, .229 xBA, .268 xwOBA and 2.89 xERA all support the notion his success is legitimate as well. Eovaldi has a premium matchup on his hands Tuesday, as the Pirates have an anemic .201 average, .078 ISO, .263 wOBA and -21.5 wRAA against right-handed pitching in May, along with an elevated 26.9 percent strikeout rate.
Pirates starting southpaw Rich Hill has put together a solid 4-3 mark and 3.80 ERA in his own right, but there are plenty of holes to poke in those figures. Hill's below-the-surface metrics include a career-high 12.6 percent barrel rate surrendered, along with a .289 xBA, .370 xwOBA, and most alarmingly, a 5.87 xERA that significantly outpaces his base figure in that category. What's more, his matchup is a daunting one, as the Rangers are carrying an 11.3 percent walk rate, modest 18.9 percent strikeout rate, .342 average, .923 OPS, .397 wOBA and 15.5 wRAA against lefties in May (238 plate appearances).
The Rangers have the best first 5 innings moneyline record in baseball (31-13-3), including a 14-7-2 mark on the road. The Pirates are actually second, but a fairly distant one in terms of winning percentage, with a 22-15-10 tally. Eovaldi also has a 7-2 first 5 innings moneyline record, good for a 77.8 percent winning percentage in that split.
MLB Best Bet for Rangers vs. Pirates
- Rangers -0.5- 1st 5 innings (-120 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
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Josh Jung has tormented left-handed pitching all season, generating a .341 average, 1.065 OPS and .448 wOBA versus that handedness overall, with seven of his 15 hits in the split going for extra bases. Jung has 83 total bases in 44 games thus far, and he's been particularly locked in at the plate of late -- the slugger owns a .325 average and .886 OPS over his last 10 games.
Meanwhile, Hill has been fortunate not to have much poorer numbers as his previously cited metrics indicate, and the Pirates bullpen has also yielded 21 extra-base hits during May on the way to a collective 5.05 ERA.
MLB Expert Player Prop for Rangers vs. Pirates
- Josh Jung Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Tuesday MLB Game Focus Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my Game Focus Best Bets for Tuesday, May 23:
- Rangers -0.5- 1st 5 innings (-120 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Josh Jung Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
