MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Friday, April 17
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New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Best Bets and Predictions
The struggling New York Mets (7-12) visit the Chicago Cubs (9-9) on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. The Mets are mired in a brutal 8-game losing streak, scoring just 12 runs total during the skid while being shut out multiple times. New York is also 7-1 to the under on their team total in the last 8 games, highlighting a complete offensive collapse.
Cubs vs Mets Starting Pitching Matchup Kodai Senga (0-2, 7.07 ERA) starts for the Mets and has struggled early with command and hard contact. He faces Edward Cabrera (1-0, 1.62 ERA) for the Cubs, who has been sharp in limited starts with excellent stuff and low damage allowed. This creates a clear pitching edge for Chicago at home.
Weather Impact for Cubs vs Mets Warm April conditions at Wrigley Field with temperatures around 70°F and winds blowing 20 mph left to right. These strong winds are expected to carry balls out, pushing the total up to 10.5 and setting the stage for a high-scoring outcome.
Cubs vs Mets Betting Pick Current odds: • Cubs -140 to -150 moneyline • Cubs -1.5 (+130 to +140) • Mets +1.5 (-155 to -162) • Total 10.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
The sharpest play is the Cubs -1.5 run line. In a game with a high total of 10.5 fueled by strong winds, laying -1.5 runs is significantly less risky than in lower-total environments (7-8 runs).
With the Mets' offense producing just 12 runs in eight games and sitting 7-1 to the under on their team total, Cabrera's strong form against Senga's early struggles gives Chicago an excellent chance to win by two or more runs. Look for a 6-3 or 7-4 final as the Mets' skid potentially reaches nine games.
Best Bet: Cubs -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +135)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Best Bets and Predictions
The red-hot Minnesota Twins (11-8) host the Cincinnati Reds (11-8) on Friday night at Target Field. Minnesota sits at 8-2 SU in their last 10 games. The Twins are also scorching on their team total, going 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games, including six straight overs.
Twins vs Reds Starting Pitching Matchup Joe Ryan (2-1, 3.80 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 22 K in 21.1 IP) takes the mound for the Twins as their clear ace. He faces Brandon Williamson (1-1, 5.28 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), who is only in the rotation due to injuries to Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Williamson has struggled with command all season, creating the biggest pitching mismatch on tonight's slate. The Twins have also crushed elite left-handed pitchers this year, with shockingly strong performances against Framber Valdez, Tarik Skubal, and Garrett Crochet.
Recent Trends and Head-to-Head Despite colder weather pushing the total down, the Twins' offense remains in peak form at home. Minnesota is 7-3 at Target Field this season and continues to show explosive potential.
Weather Impact for Twins vs Reds A cold front will bring temperatures around 43°F at first pitch with 16 mph winds and a chance of early showers. These conditions have driven the game total down to 7.5, typically favoring unders.
Twins vs Reds Betting Pick Current odds: • Twins -175 moneyline • Twins -1.5 (+119 to +123) • Reds +1.5 (-143 to -149) • Total 7.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
Despite the cold weather, the sharpest play is the Twins -1.5 run line. Joe Ryan's dominance paired with Williamson's control issues, Minnesota's recent offensive surge, and their 9-1 team-total over streak make the Twins likely to win by two or more runs. Expect a 5-2 or 6-3 final in this clear pitching mismatch.
Best Bet: Twins -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +125)
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets and Predictions
The Atlanta Braves (12-7) visit the Philadelphia Phillies (8-10) on Friday night at Citizens Bank Park. Atlanta has been one of the most consistent teams early in the 2026 season and enters with superior lineup depth and momentum.
Braves vs Phillies Starting Pitching Matchup Martin Perez (0-1, 3.14 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) starts for the Braves and has been solid with excellent command and low damage allowed. He faces Taijuan Walker (1-2, 7.36 ERA, 1.91 WHIP) for the Phillies. Walker has struggled significantly this season, allowing hard contact and posting a high walk rate. This matchup gives Atlanta a clear pitching edge.
Recent Trends and Head-to-Head The Braves have shown strong offensive potential and look poised to exploit Walker's early-season issues. Philadelphia has been inconsistent at home and vulnerable against quality left-handed pitching. Atlanta is 6-2 in their last 8 games. The OVER is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games and their team total is 7-3 in that stretch. The Phillies are just 3-7 in their last 10 games overall with their team total 8-1 to the under in the last 9.
Weather Impact for Braves vs Phillies Warm April evening conditions at Citizens Bank Park with temperatures around 75-79°F, partly cloudy skies, light winds (7-10 mph), and low chance of precipitation. These favorable conditions should support solid run production.
Braves vs Phillies Betting Pick Current odds: • Braves -108 to -118 moneyline • Braves -1.5 (+141 to +150) • Phillies +1.5 (-170 to -172) • Total 9 to 9.5 (Over -110 to -115 / Under -105 to -108)
The sharpest plays are the Braves moneyline and Braves team total over (typically set around 4.5 runs). Perez's command advantage against Walker's 7.36 ERA and high WHIP, combined with Atlanta's offensive depth and Citizens Bank Park's hitter-friendly tendencies, makes the Braves likely to win outright and clear their team total. Look for a 6-3 or 5-2 final with the Braves scoring 5+ runs.
Best Bet: Braves OVER 4.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -120) ; Braves ML for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -108)
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Best Bets and Predictions
The New York Yankees (10-9) host the struggling Kansas City Royals (7-12) on Friday night at Yankee Stadium.
The Royals have lost 4 straight games and sit at 2-7 in their last 9 contests, while going 7-2 to the under on their team total in the last 9 games. Meanwhile, the Yankees are just 3-8 in their last 11 games, including a 9-game losing streak against the run line, and are also 7-2 to the under on their team total in the last 9 games.
Yankees vs Royals Starting Pitching Matchup Cam Schlittler (2-1, 2.49 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 30 K in 21.2 IP) starts for the Yankees and has been outstanding early with elite strikeout stuff. He faces Michael Wacha (2-0, 0.43 ERA, 0.71 WHIP) for the Royals. Both pitchers have been very effective this season, setting up a strong pitching duel.
Recent Trends and Head-to-Head Both teams have shown clear offensive struggles lately. The Royals' road woes and the Yankees' recent slump make this a prime low-scoring spot, with team totals consistently trending under.
Weather Impact for Yankees vs Royals Pleasant April evening at Yankee Stadium with temperatures around 65-70°F, partly cloudy skies, and light winds. These neutral conditions should support controlled offense rather than a high-scoring affair.
Yankees vs Royals Betting Pick Current odds: • Yankees -175 to -193 moneyline • Yankees -1.5 (+118 to +125) • Royals +1.5 (-143 to -150) • Total 8.5 (Over -107 to -110 / Under -105 to -112)
The sharpest play is the Under 8.5 runs. With both teams going 7-2 to the under on their team totals in the last 9 games, two quality starters in Schlittler and Wacha, the Royals' 4-game losing streak, and the Yankees' 3-8 slide, this matchup is primed for a low-scoring pitcher's duel. Expect a final in the 4-2 or 3-1 range.
Best Bet: Royals/Yankees UNDER 8.5 runs for 0.5 unit (Caesars Sportsbook +100)
Friday's Best Bets and Predictions
Best MLB Bets
- Cubs -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +135)
- Twins -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +125)
- Braves OVER 4.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -120)
- Braves ML for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -108)
- Royals/Yankees UNDER 8.5 runs for 0.5 unit (Caesars Sportsbook +100)
