MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

On last Tuesday's RotoWire MLB podcast, Jeff Erickson and Tim Heaney briefly looked ahead to 2020 drafts and discussed various possibilities for what the first round may look like. Several NFBC veterans chimed in on the topic via Twitter, including RotoWire's Scott Jenstad who shared his thoughts in his recent Oak's Corner column. Much debate surrounded whether Ronald Acuna, Mike Trout or Christian Yelich will be taken with the first overall pick. While argument can be made for all three players, today's column makes a case for Acuna, who has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball the last three weeks.

We'll also look at several other players whose stocks have risen in recent weeks, both for 2020 drafts and the remainder of 2019. Conversely, we'll look at players whose values have decreased for 2020 amidst their August struggles. With that in mind, which players will you target in the first few rounds of 2020 drafts? Who burned you in the first few rounds this season that you'll  avoid next year? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.

Before moving on to this week's risers and fallers, a quick reminder of how this column is meant to be used is in order. This is not an add/drop list, so don't go dropping Trevor Bauer for Amed Rosario based on seeing their names here. It's instead a discussion of players whose stocks appear to have meaningfully appreciated or depreciated in recent weeks.

RISERS

Ronald Acuna, OF, Braves: When you look at Acuna's ridiculous numbers this season – a .296 batting average with 35 home runs, 85 RBI, 104 runs scored and 29 stolen bases – it's easy to forget that he's only 21. However, Sunday's potential playoff preview against the NL-leading Dodgers was a reminder that the Venezuelan native still has some lessons to learn, as Acuna was pulled from the game by Braves manager Brian Snitker for lack of hustle. Notwithstanding Acuna's mental gaffe, he is absolutely locked in at the plate, hitting .351 with eight homers and 15 RBI the last two weeks. We all know he'll be a consensus top three fantasy pick in 2020 drafts. What separates him from fellow MVP candidates Mike Trout and Christian Yelich are his 36 stolen base attempts. After running rampant in July (12 steals on 14 attempts), Acuna has four steals on six attempts since and has a decent shot of reaching 40 for the season. With stolen bases down overall, Acuna's five category contributions make him the current favorite to be the top pick next year. If he can improve his current 81 percent success rate on the base paths, look out.

Jack Flaherty, SP, Cardinals: Flaherty's been the best pitcher in baseball the last two months, going 3-1in his last eight starts with ratios under one. During that span, the right-hander has permitted a mere five runs with a 61:14 K:BB over 50.1 innings. Drafted among the top-20 starters in 2019 drafts, Flaherty hasn't taken a huge step forward this season as his numbers are right in line with 2018, but his recent hot stretch puts him in line to be drafted in the first six rounds in 2020.

Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Dodgers: A fourth-round pick prior to this season, Bellinger will be a first-rounder in 2020 after recently surpassing 40 home runs for the first time in his career. With five long balls in his last seven games, he has 42 this season and is within reach of breaking Shawn Green's franchise-record 49 set in 2002. Aside from his power, Bellinger has made significant improvements at the plate this year. He's cut his strikeout rate by seven and half percentage points, down to 16.3 percent. This improvement correlates with his contact rate (80.6 percent), up nearly eight percentage points from 2018. If the season ended today, Bellinger's .318 batting average would blow his career high (.267) out of the water. The fact that he has a chance to lead MLB in home runs while hitting well over .300 and chipping in double-digit steals cements his rise up draft boards for 2020.

Shane Bieber, SP, Indians: Prior to the season, if you were forced to bet on the Indians top starter through Aug. 19, how many of you would have bet on Bieber? I suppose that depends on the odds, but with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer healthy (and in Bauer's case, on the team) to start 2019, it may have required extremely large odds to choose the second-year starter. However, everyone who bet on Bieber this season has reaped major rewards. He's 12-5 with three complete games and a 200:33 K:BB over 162.1 innings. His 6.06 K/BB ranks fifth in the majors behind some elite company: Max Scherzer (7.56), Hyun-Jin Ryu (7.00), Justin Verlander (6.71) and Walker Buehler (6.38). Bieber is a big reason the Indians felt comfortable enough to trade Bauer in the midst of both the playoff and AL Central races. With a 2019 NFBC ADP of 133.7, he's been a tremendous value this season. Just be prepared to draft him 100 spots higher next March. In the meantime, check out his hilarious Twitter exchange with pop superstar Justin Bieber a few weeks ago.

Juan Soto, OF, Nationals: Soto's incredible stat line as a 19-year-old carried many of his fantasy owners to their league championship last season. However, it was fair to question whether his success would carry over to 2019, especially after Bryce Harper left a big void in the Nationals' lineup once he signed with the Phillies in free agency. Soto could have been a first-round pick in 2019, but the uncertainly caused him to fall to the third or fourth round. Fast forward to present day and his numbers are right in line with last season's. One notable improvement, however, is his 12 stolen bases on 13 attempts. Soto only swiped five bags last season and never really lit up the base paths in the minors, so this is a pleasant development, albeit not all that surprisingly considering his age. With two homers Sunday, Soto has 28 this season and if he keeps getting the green light on the base paths, he'll have a shot at a 35/15 season. That type of production would make him a fringe first-rounder in 2020 drafts.

Amed Rosario, SS, Mets: Rosario has disappointed fantasy owners with only 15 stolen bases this season after most thought he would swipe at least 30. With six weeks left in the season, he has a chance to top last year's mark (24), but he'll need to be more aggressive on the base paths with only three attempts the last two weeks. One thing Rosario has done well lately is get on base. He's 14-for-29 (.483) over the last week, mostly hitting leadoff for the Mets. Fantasy owners seeking runs, average or stolen bases should ride the hot streak while it lasts.

FALLERS

Trevor Bauer, SP, Reds: One of the first starters off the board in 2019 drafts, Bauer likely will slip several rounds next March after his ratios dropped significantly this season (4.12 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). Perhaps this is the pitcher Bauer has been all along, with his spectacular 2018 looking more and more like a distant outlier? Since being traded to the Reds, the enigmatic starter has allowed 13 runs in three starts. One of those starts was a gem in front of his new home crowd, but he got shelled in his last outing, giving up nine earned runs against the Nationals. Bauer's inconsistency will scare off some fantasy owners next year, but his second consecutive season of 200-plus strikeouts will maintain some value; just not at a second- or third-round price.

Josh Hader, RP, Brewers: Earlier this season, Hader was basically unhittable. Unfortunately, the hard-throwing southpaw hasn't looked the same since the calendar flipped to August. With four blown saves in his last five appearances and a 12.86 ERA during that stretch, it's fair to wonder if Hader is dealing with some sort of injury or mechanical flaw. Whatever the case, a few games off to regroup may benefit the lefty, whose 2.06 HR/9 is more than double last year's mark (1.00).

Oscar Mercado, OF, Indians: Featured in the risers section of this column three weeks ago, Mercado limped to a .221 average with one homer, two RBI and zero steals since. A three-hit outburst Sunday boosted his average, but his recent cold stretch reminds us that Mercado is still a rookie who will have frequent ups and downs as big-league pitchers make their adjustments. With 13 homers and 23 steals between Cleveland and Triple-A Columbus, Mercado's power-speed repertoire makes him an interesting target for 2020 drafts, especially if he remains in the two-hole of the Indians' lineup. Just keep an eye on his game logs down the stretch if you're relying on Mercado in any important leagues.

Domingo Santana, OF, Mariners: Remember when Santana was the hottest hitter in baseball to open 2019? Those days are long gone, as he's 2-for-30 with a 50 percent strikeout rate in August. He returned to Seattle's lineup Sunday after being benched for three games due to his struggles, but remained hitless in four at-bats while fanning twice. Those still holding onto Santana may wish to reconsider.