Coby Mayo

Mayo has a near-flawless track record as a hitter. The corner infielder's age-21 season was a tour de force across Double-A and Triple-A, as he slashed .290/.410/.563 with 29 homers, a 24.1 K%, 15.1 BB%, 35.1 Hard% and 15.7 Soft% in 140 games. His groundball rate was below 36% at both stops, and Mayo had an elite 106.6-mph 90th percentile exit velocity at Triple-A. He doesn't have the most aesthetically pleasing swing, but from an impact and swing-decision standpoint, Mayo passes any evaluation with high marks. The two biggest knocks on him for fantasy are things that are outside his control. He hits right handed and Oriole Park at Camden Yards was 34% worse than league average for righty homers in 2023 and 19% worse than league average in 2022, per Baseball Savant. Last year, it was the third-worst park for righty power. Additionally, Baltimore will likely need to clear room ahead of him on the organizational depth chart via a trade in order for Mayo to see MLB time early in 2024. He appears to be big-league ready but with nowhere to play, making him a high-variance option in draft-and-hold formats. For instance, a Ryan Mountcastle trade would significantly increase Mayo's short-term appeal, but no such move is guaranteed. He saw more time at third base than first base in 2023, but he profiles best with this team at first base and designated hitter long term.

Mayo is a decent buy-low target in dynasty leagues this offseason, as his most recent stat line (.250/.331/.398, 34.5 K%, .148 ISO in 34 games at Double-A) undersells his realistic potential. The Orioles have flipped the switch to contention, so the days of them slow-cooking their best prospects in the minors are over. Mayo getting pushed from High-A, where he slashed .251/.326/.494 with a 21.5 K% and .243 ISO while getting a little unlucky (.275 BABIP) as a 20-year-old, to Double-A was an aggressive promotion from Baltimore. The player type matters here too, as the typical big (6-foot-5, 215 pounds) power-hitting corner infielders can be slower to develop than contact-oriented middle infielders. Strikeouts will be part of the package with Mayo over the next couple years against upper-level and big-league pitching, but he could eventually develop an above-average hit tool to go with his plus power. Additionally, Mayo could develop even more power as he continues to fill out his frame. The Orioles will have a stacked depth chart by the time Mayo is ready for the majors, so he may have to move to first base, right field or designated hitter.

Mayo, who received $1.75 million (over triple slot value) after the Orioles selected him in the fourth round in 2020, had essentially a perfect pro debut. He hit .319/.426/.555 with nine home runs, a 13.4 BB% and an 18.5 K% in 53 games split evenly between the Florida Complex League and Low-A. The 6-foot-5 third baseman has kept his body in great shape, maintaining strength without adding bad weight, and he was playing at appropriate levels for a 19-year-old slugger. Players who are as big, young and powerful as Mayo typically come with hit tool concerns, but so far that's looking like a major strength of his. While he is a good athlete for his size and position, Mayo's 11 steals on 11 attempts aren't very relevant, as he figures to slow down and lower-level stolen-base totals don't tell us much with any player. He seems to have an excellent eye at the plate, and when he chooses to swing, he typically hits it hard and in the air. Mayo is still at least a couple years away from the majors, but he is looking like a potential Austin Riley-esque middle-of-the-order staple.