I'm going to continue to dig for breakouts while they still might be on the waiver wire. This week's leaderboard features starting pitchers (min 20 IP) who are rostered in fewer than 75 percent of all NFBC RotoWire Online Championship leagues and have a strikeout minus walk rate (K%-BB%) of 10 percent or more. It's time to see if any of them are worth rostering.
| Name | K%-BB% | Roster% | IP | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski | 18.3% | 63% | 34 | 4.76 | 3.20 | 1.50 | 10.6 |
| Jake Irvin | 15.6% | 10% | 34 | 4.93 | 4.26 | 1.30 | 10.3 |
| Kyle Freeland | 14.4% | 3% | 25 | 5.04 | 4.09 | 1.36 | 8.6 |
| Chris Paddack | 13.7% | 0% | 30 | 7.63 | 4.32 | 1.66 | 8.0 |
| Mike Burrows | 13.6% | 70% | 37 | 5.97 | 4.28 | 1.65 | 8.7 |
| Keider Montero | 13.5% | 37% | 33 | 3.48 | 4.52 | 1.01 | 6.8 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 13.4% | 13% | 31 | 5.81 | 4.21 | 1.58 | 9.6 |
| Peter Lambert | 12.9% | 50% | 22 | 2.42 | 4.11 | 1.16 | 9.4 |
| Patrick Corbin | 12.7% | 1% | 24 | 3.65 | 4.24 | 1.26 | 7.4 |
| Walker Buehler | 12.4% | 10% | 30 | 5.64 | 3.79 | 1.52 | 8.7 |
| Janson Junk | 12.3% | 66% | 38 | 2.82 | 3.89 | 1.04 | 6.4 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 12.0% | 8% | 31 | 6.32 | 4.13 | 1.40 | 9.5 |
| Sean Burke | 11.8% | 75% | 39 | 2.72 | 4.03 | 1.01 | 7.3 |
| Noah Cameron | 11.8% | 61% | 31 | 5.40 | 4.35 | 1.61 | 8.1 |
| David Peterson | 11.2% | 7% | 34 | 6.29 | 3.57 | 1.60 | 9.2 |
| Kumar Rocker | 11.0% | 25% | 28 | 4.71 | 4.16 | 1.43 | 7.7 |
| Michael McGreevy | 10.9% | 65% | 39 | 2.52 | 4.05 | 0.92 | 5.5 |
| Aaron Civale | 10.8% | 2% | 36 | 2.95 | 4.71 | 1.34 | 6.7 |
| Dustin May | 10.3% | 45% | 36 | 5.15 | 4.28 | 1.53 | 6.2 |
| Kodai Senga | 10.3% | 19% | 20 |
I'm going to continue to dig for breakouts while they still might be on the waiver wire. This week's leaderboard features starting pitchers (min 20 IP) who are rostered in fewer than 75 percent of all NFBC RotoWire Online Championship leagues and have a strikeout minus walk rate (K%-BB%) of 10 percent or more. It's time to see if any of them are worth rostering.
| Name | K%-BB% | Roster% | IP | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski | 18.3% | 63% | 34 | 4.76 | 3.20 | 1.50 | 10.6 |
| Jake Irvin | 15.6% | 10% | 34 | 4.93 | 4.26 | 1.30 | 10.3 |
| Kyle Freeland | 14.4% | 3% | 25 | 5.04 | 4.09 | 1.36 | 8.6 |
| Chris Paddack | 13.7% | 0% | 30 | 7.63 | 4.32 | 1.66 | 8.0 |
| Mike Burrows | 13.6% | 70% | 37 | 5.97 | 4.28 | 1.65 | 8.7 |
| Keider Montero | 13.5% | 37% | 33 | 3.48 | 4.52 | 1.01 | 6.8 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 13.4% | 13% | 31 | 5.81 | 4.21 | 1.58 | 9.6 |
| Peter Lambert | 12.9% | 50% | 22 | 2.42 | 4.11 | 1.16 | 9.4 |
| Patrick Corbin | 12.7% | 1% | 24 | 3.65 | 4.24 | 1.26 | 7.4 |
| Walker Buehler | 12.4% | 10% | 30 | 5.64 | 3.79 | 1.52 | 8.7 |
| Janson Junk | 12.3% | 66% | 38 | 2.82 | 3.89 | 1.04 | 6.4 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 12.0% | 8% | 31 | 6.32 | 4.13 | 1.40 | 9.5 |
| Sean Burke | 11.8% | 75% | 39 | 2.72 | 4.03 | 1.01 | 7.3 |
| Noah Cameron | 11.8% | 61% | 31 | 5.40 | 4.35 | 1.61 | 8.1 |
| David Peterson | 11.2% | 7% | 34 | 6.29 | 3.57 | 1.60 | 9.2 |
| Kumar Rocker | 11.0% | 25% | 28 | 4.71 | 4.16 | 1.43 | 7.7 |
| Michael McGreevy | 10.9% | 65% | 39 | 2.52 | 4.05 | 0.92 | 5.5 |
| Aaron Civale | 10.8% | 2% | 36 | 2.95 | 4.71 | 1.34 | 6.7 |
| Dustin May | 10.3% | 45% | 36 | 5.15 | 4.28 | 1.53 | 6.2 |
| Kodai Senga | 10.3% | 19% | 20 | 9.00 | 4.87 | 1.95 | 10.4 |
| Bailey Ober | 10.2% | 73% | 38 | 3.55 | 4.64 | 1.13 | 6.9 |
| Tyler Mahle | 10.1% | 43% | 36 | 5.00 | 4.10 | 1.53 | 8.5 |
| Erick Fedde | 10.1% | 3% | 38 | 3.79 | 4.79 | 1.13 | 5.7 |
| Steven Matz | 10.1% | 73% | 37 | 3.86 | 4.41 | 1.10 | 6.8 |
Here are my thoughts on some of the pitchers. They are listed in my preference for rostering them.
Sean Burke: While not striking out many batters (7.3 K/9), he's been solid across the board and is getting better, with a 0.93 ERA (3.60 xFIP) over his last three games. Also, I think he has some strikeout upside if he leaned into his slider more (14 percent swinging strike rate). Other fantasy managers have noticed, since he's right at the 75 percent rostership percentage cutoff.
Janson Junk: While he won't maintain a 2.82 ERA, he should be able to keep it under four. He's having success by not walking batters (1.9 BB/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (50 percent groundball rate). His groundball rate could be even higher if he didn't throw his four-seamer (34 percent groundball rate) a third of the time. Junk's strikeout, walk and groundball rates are similar to those of Logan Webb and Framber Valdez.
Carmen Mlodzinski: Over the first four games of the season, Mlodzinski had a 1.77 ERA (3.63 xFIP). Then the last three games happened, where he got BABIP'd to death (9.22 ERA, .450 BABIP, 42 percent left on base rate). Over that stretch, he maintained his velocity and pitch mix while posting a 2.99 xFIP. I'd tried to add him in all my leagues where available.
Peter Lambert: I suspect Lambert's stock will take off after he shut out the Dodgers on Tuesday. He is throwing his good four-seamer (11 percent swinging strike rate, 24 percent groundball rate), slider (14 percent swinging strike rate, 71 percent groundball rate), and changeup (20 percent swinging strike rate, 54 percent groundball rate) a combined 70 percent of the time. He throws three other pitches (cutter, curve, sinker), but they don't do anything. He could have some upside if he leaned into his best three the most. The only issue keeping him from going higher is his 4.4 BB/9. The walks will eventually come back to bite him.
Keider Montero: Montero makes the list based on his low 1.9 BB/9. Strikeouts (6.7 K/9) are a problem, but I see some upside if he starts trusting his slider (17 percent usage, 14 percent swinging strike rate ) and changeup (16 percent usage, 13 percent swinging strike rate). One issue surrounding him is that his rotation spot could be lost once (if) some other starters (Case Mize and Justin Verlander) get healthy.
Mike Burrows: After losing 0.7 mph from last season, he is getting hit around with 1.9 HR/9 and .373 BABIP. Even if a you assume his 4.28 xFIP accurately reflects his talent, that's not even close to a plug-and-forget-it guy. Another streamer.
Patrick Corbin: I'm coming around to the idea that Corbin might be a streaming option. He's been the same pitcher for the past three seasons, but this year, he's been a little lucky (81 percent left on base rate).
Jake Irvin: Irvin is getting a ton of strikeouts (10.1 K/9), but his walk rate (3.9 BB/9) is holding him back, leading to a 1.30 WHIP. I think you get what you see with him: a streamer against weak opponents but not much more.
Walker Buehler: Buehler needs to find some consistency, especially in terms of finding the plate. In his two blowups this year, he walked three batters and allowed four earned runs in fewer than three innings pitched. His 3.6 BB/9 isn't a deal breaker, but it's tough to know when he'll be on or off. A gamble.
Kyle Freeland: The Rockie has seen his xFIP drop for the third straight season (from 5.13 to 4.38 to 4.29 to 4.09) with his fastball velocity increased during that time (from 88.8 mph to 91.5 to 91.6 to 92.0). Those home starts (5.91 ERA this year) just eat into the overall numbers. That said, I think he could be started on the road against weaker teams. Using our Projected Starters Grid, the next two starts he has on the road are against the Phillies and Dodgers. Two hard passes for now, but don't ignore as the season goes on.
Lance McCullers Jr.: His stats are being affected positively by his first three starts. Over his last three starts, he has a 6.75 ERA (5.09 xFIP) and a 6.2 BB/9. His fastball velocities are down by about 0.5 mph. I'll be interested in him if he can put three strong starts together.
