College Baseball Picks: Golden Spikes Award Best Bets
The Golden Spikes is one of the coolest awards in sports, given to the best amateur baseball player. Like a lot of these new markets, it's in its third year of bet ability, giving a sample size of how to attack them. In 2024, we crushed the Charlie Condon 15/1 number for an inaugural cash.
With my trusty formula, I have identified some big-time players for 2026. Before we get there, let's talk about that formula that will get us right.
Like any award, there are certain criteria to consider heavily. Because this isn't a popular award to bet yet, you won't find anybody else giving you this insight, so listen up:
- Target players in a Power 5 (now Power 4) conference. Since 2011, only two non-P5's have won — Kris Bryant and Kyle Lewis.
- Stay away from pitcher-only players. Since 2010, only Trevor Bauer and Kevin Kopps have won. Not even Paul Skenes.
- Target players on teams that will likely make the field of 64. Since 2007, there have only been three non-playoff winners, and one was Bryce Harper at JUCO.
- Target draft-eligible/likely first-rounders.
- Target players who will likely have big statistical profiles (i.e .400+ average/30 HRs).
There are three finalists every year, and usually the top pitcher is one of them to honor the dominant season they had. 2025's winner, Arkansas' Wehiwa Aloy, was a statistical outlier with 21 HR and a .350 average. The offensive field in terms of realistic candidates was down overall, but that definitely won't be the case in 2026. We are genuinely looking at one of the deepest and most talented classes of bats seen in quite a long time.
As a matter of fact, it's tough to pick this award in the preseason, because there are 15 or more legitimate contenders that I can see winning. The most obvious would be the consensus preseason 1.1 pick, UCLA's Roch Cholowsky. Alabama's Justin Lebron and Georgia Tech's Drew Burress both have 1.1 juice as well, so their cases will be strong.
In a challenging year to pick from a loaded field, this is how I'm attacking the board at the current odds.
*Disclaimer - at the time of this article, Caesars is the only book offering this market (with limited bet amounts). I'm expecting Bet Rivers to offer this market prior to opening day on 2.13, so stay tuned.
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Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech (+750)
If you have followed me long enough, then you should be well aware of this dude. I've tweeted and wrote several articles including him over the years. This 5'9", 180-pound dynamo might originally throw you off with his immense power, but it's no accident. After amassing a laughable 25 bops and .381 average as a freshman, he racked up 19 last season, giving him 44 in 118 games at Georgia Tech in two years.
It's not just the power though. The kid hits for average (.357 career), while keeping a 111:79 BB:K ratio. For some reason, Burress was the fourth-favorite at market open at 12/1, which made no sense. I discussed on my podcast, Breaking Bet, how his accurate price should have been about 7/1, so naturally I bet it, and that's roughly where it stands now. Burress checks all the boxes to win this award from an individual standpoint, to go along with his pedigree and preseason draft hype.
Georgia Tech is expected to have another loaded lineup that projects to be top-10 overall in the nation. With other potential first rounders like catcher Vahn Lackey (a possible top-10 pick and first catcher off the board) and second baseman Jarren Advincula, who transferred from Cal, there will be no shortage in production for this offense. The depth of this lineup will not allow pitchers many opportunities to pitch around Burress, giving him a shot to crack the 30-homer threshold.
If he repeats that 2024 freshman campaign, we'll likely be seeing the ACC Player of the Year as a Golden Spikes finalist.
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Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State (+2,500)
Without a doubt, one of my favorite players on the board this year. Ace Reese may not be known outside of College Baseball circles, but make no mistake: this kid can play! After transferring from Houston last year, all Reese did was win the SEC Newcomer of the Year in 2025 with a 21-homer, .352-average campaign. In a turmoil-filled down year for the Dawgs in '25, the transfer was a big time bright spot.
Now, Brian O'Connor bolted from UVA to head up the program, where they are expected to be College World Series contenders for 2026. If you know anything about Brian O'Connor, he's led some offensive WAGONS over the years at Virginia. The new look Mississippi State team will definitely be relying on Reese to take an even bigger jump this year.
He certainly has the juice for a 25-homer plus season to go along with a high-.300s batting average. The one bugaboo in his offensive game is the strikeouts. There were 52 Ks in 57 games (263 plate appearances) last season, which will need to be cleaned up. Regardless of the wrong number and bang-for-buck value here, this is definitely a contender.
In a conference stocked with future MLB superstars, it could reasonably be Ace Reese who walks away with the SEC Player of the Year crown. Aside from the obvious achievement that would be in itself, the last three SEC POY have won the Golden Spikes ('23 Dylan Crews, '24 Charlie Condon, '25 Wehiwa Aloy).
Myles Bailey, 1B, Florida State (+10,000)
Before odds came out, there was one player I was circling. One dude who I felt would have a chance to win the Golden Spikes. Much to my surprise, we've seen Bailey open at a staggering 100/1, which makes NO SENSE AT ALL. Realistically, I thought — and still think — he would (and should) be 30/1 or less. Yet, here we are with a long-shot price for what actually is one of the best bets.
Interestingly enough, Bailey didn't even make the preseason watch list for the award. Not sure what to make of that. The draft-eligible sophomore is without question one of the biggest power hitters in the country. As a matter of fact, he could have the most raw power.
After a stellar rookie season at FSU with 19 homers and a .327 average, Bailey looks poised to be "the guy" for the Noles in 2026. The 6'4", 257lb lefty is a thunderous bat that should have a massive 2026. Obviously, the 76 strikeouts (to 32 walks) is a big problem that needs to be ironed out. The swing tends to be a bit long, while the pitch recognition and plate discipline needs to be cleaned up. You're not winning the Golden Spikes with those kind of strikeout numbers.
However, head coach Link Jarrett spoke on Bailey's development from last year in terms of being more efficient and cleaning up his approach. The bottom line is when you have a player who can realistically hit 35 home runs, there's no chance his odds should be this big. Myles Bailey definitely needs to be in your portfolio.
Other Players Worth Adding
Caden Sorrell, OF, Texas A&M (+5,000)
Sorrell, or as I like to call him, "Instant Offense," was 150/1 at open. Another laughable number. I tried to smack it, but couldn't even get $5 down on him. Quickly cut to 50/1, Sorrell is still too big of a price.
After missing half of the 2025 season to a severe hamstring injury, Sorrell provided a momentous spark to a struggling Aggies offense with his 12 homers in 26 games (.337 average and 1.219 OPS). The projected first-rounder is a strong hitter that can carry an offense even when he's only at 60 percent. Now that he's a full go in 2026, we could see a huge jump.
With Gavin Grahovac returning from a torn ACL and Chris Hacopian transferring in from Maryland, Sorrell will be able to produce big numbers in what should be a potent TAMU lineup.
Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA (+650)
I had to at least talk about Cholowsky. The award and 1.1 draft favorite is here for a reason. Though College Baseball is gaining a lot of popularity over the last few years, it's still not mainstream to the point where many know the stars prior to the CWS. Having played in Omaha, it gave the rest of world a chance to learn about Cholowsky.
In this deep of a field, I typically don't love giving out favorites, especially preseason. However, the truth is, this kid is not only a stud, but he's most likely putting up a monster year. After 23 bops and a .353 average in 2025, Cholowsky is poised to flirt with 30 homers. The Bruins play in a weak Big 10 conference with a lot of layups on the schedule. The offense is loaded with talent again. Cholowsky has protection in the lineup. Plus he's got the pedigree and hype individually, along with the team as UCLA is the preseason No.1 teams on a lot of big boards.
In all likelihood, this is the best number you're getting on Roch all season long. While it's a short number, the value is pretty good for what you're getting. We get obsessed with value in terms of odds, but sometimes numbers like this are valuable. For example, if you got Shohei Ohtani to win NL MVP at +250, that would be value despite a short number.
Cholowsky is a bonafide superstar, so it's not a bad proposition to take him with what he's projected to do in 2026 on a team that might win 45 games and be a national hosting (top 8) seed.
Don't forget to follow me all season long on my Breaking Bet podcast and discord for picks and breakdowns.
