One interesting metric Ariel Cohen publishes as part of his ATC projections is Inter-Projection Standard Deviation (InterSD). InterSD shows the disagreements among the various projection systems which go into ATC, with a larger number meaning the projections differ by a larger amount. Players who stand out in InterSD tend to be volatile in some regard.
For this column, we'll examine hitters with the highest InterSD inside the top 150 in ADP in an effort to find volatile hitters who might be undervalued by drafters. We'll present the case for and against these players and offer a final verdict on these four divisive hitters.
CJ Abrams, SS, WAS
Abrams was one of the top prospects in fantasy baseball put it all together in his sophomore season, earning him $17 of value in 2023. His ADP in 2024 sits inside the top 50 picks, with the fourth-highest InterSD among all hitters in the top 50. That's behind Fernando Tatis Jr., Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Most of the production for Abrams came from July 1 onward, with 11 home runs, 38 stolen bases, and a .257 batting average in his final 345 plate appearances. He started slow, with only seven home runs, nine stolen bases and a .230 average in his first 269 plate appearances. Let's lay out the case for and against Abrams in 2024.
The Case For Abrams
It's easy to make a case for Abrams based on his stolen base upside, as he swiped 47 bags while converting
One interesting metric Ariel Cohen publishes as part of his ATC projections is Inter-Projection Standard Deviation (InterSD). InterSD shows the disagreements among the various projection systems which go into ATC, with a larger number meaning the projections differ by a larger amount. Players who stand out in InterSD tend to be volatile in some regard.
For this column, we'll examine hitters with the highest InterSD inside the top 150 in ADP in an effort to find volatile hitters who might be undervalued by drafters. We'll present the case for and against these players and offer a final verdict on these four divisive hitters.
CJ Abrams, SS, WAS
Abrams was one of the top prospects in fantasy baseball put it all together in his sophomore season, earning him $17 of value in 2023. His ADP in 2024 sits inside the top 50 picks, with the fourth-highest InterSD among all hitters in the top 50. That's behind Fernando Tatis Jr., Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Most of the production for Abrams came from July 1 onward, with 11 home runs, 38 stolen bases, and a .257 batting average in his final 345 plate appearances. He started slow, with only seven home runs, nine stolen bases and a .230 average in his first 269 plate appearances. Let's lay out the case for and against Abrams in 2024.
The Case For Abrams
It's easy to make a case for Abrams based on his stolen base upside, as he swiped 47 bags while converting a high rate of his chances (92 percent). He also earns tons of stolen base chances and projects to hit leadoff, the spot he filled in all but four games from July 7 through the end of the year.
Abrams makes above-average contact both overall and in the zone, which aligns with the very positive grades on his hit tool. In a previous article, I covered aggressive hitters, looking at how their zone swing rates could indicate solid hit tools. Abrams has a 72.3 percent zone swing rate, over three points above the league average. That should keep his floor relatively high, though we can't overlook his more aggressive approach. A player with the ability to put the ball in play who also has stolen-base upside is typically a profile to target, especially when those skills also come with some power.
The Case Against Abrams
Alongside his high zone swing rates, Abrams also chases over six percentage points more frequently than the league norm. Abrams did improve his chase rate from 43.8 percent (2022) to 38.6 percent (2023), so he's at least making progress. The power is merely average for Abrams, as he owns a five percent barrel per plate appearance rate, mainly due to his high groundball rate.
Abrams improved his groundball rate from 50.9 percent in 2022 to 43.7 percent in 2023, but that could be fluky. It's worth noting Abrams traded groundballs for slightly more flyballs (38.1 percent) in 2023, which could reflect an intentional launch-angle change.
It's a mixed bag for Abrams, as his 92.6 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives ranked merely 163rd out of 258 qualified hitters in 2023. His maximum exit velocity gives us hope at 112.5 mph, but his EV50 (the average exit velocity of the hardest 50 percent of his batted balls) of 98.8 mph (ranked 200th) suggests he may not hit the ball hard consistently enough. You could look at that mark another way, however, since his EV50 puts him near Chas McCormick, Luis Rengifo, Ozzie Albies and Cedric Mullins last season.
Verdict
A reasonable floor for Abrams is 15-18 home runs with 35-40 stolen bases and a .245 batting average. However, there's an upside outcome within reach of 20 home runs, 50 stolen bases, and a .255 batting average. We don't even have to play the what-if game around his health because he'll likely accumulate 600+ plate appearances hitting leadoff. The price feels a bit high, but it's worth buying Abrams to pair with an early-round hitter like Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman or Yordan Alvarez.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, TOR
Guerrero's 2021 season feels like the outlier, though his exit velocity metrics and prospect pedigree make us want to believe. He's coming off one of his worst seasons, seeing dips in home runs, runs, and batting average. With Guerrero going in the late second or early third round of 15-team leagues, let's examine the case for and against him.
The Case For Guerrero
He consistently boasts above-average zone contact skills, coming in at 87.3 percent last season. Guerrero has a more aggressive approach, evident by his 76.8 percent zone swing rate. However, that indicates his above-average hit tool and his ability to recognize when to swing at pitches in the strike zone.
Due to his ability to make contact while hitting the ball hard, his expected stats typically suggest better actual results. Guerrero's barrels per plate appearance consistently sit at double the league average, while his EV50 of 104.1 mph ranked 12th among qualified hitters. That's the mark of an elite power hitter.
The Case Against Guerrero
While Guerrero hits the ball as hard as anybody, he still has a launch-angle problem. His 46.2 percent groundball rate in 2023 was the second-lowest of his career, and he's never finished with a mark lower than 44.8 percent, the number he managed in his peak season back in 2021.
Worryingly, Guerrero's average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives has also declined from 2021 to 2023. In 2021, Guerrero ranked eighth at 98.5 mph, then sixth at 98.2 mph in 2022. However, he dipped to 95.3 mph last season, good for just 52nd. That's still a solid number, but it's concerning to see a dip of approximately three mph compared to the previous two seasons. One possible explanation involves a knee injury which popped up in May and September. The issue didn't send him to the injured list but likely impacted his power.
Verdict
Having a bounceback season closer to 2022 seems reasonable, though don't expect a repeat of Guerrero's peak numbers from 2021. After going in the first round in some drafts in 2023, Guerrero comes at a slightly discounted price. Many projections hint at a better season than 2023, and hopefully, his knee issue doesn't linger into 2024.
Josh Lowe, OF, TAM
Lowe teased us in the minors with 22 home runs and 26 stolen bases in 2021 at Triple-A and 14 homers and 25 steals at Triple-A in 2022. After an underwhelming debut season in 2022 with two homers and three steals in 198 plate appearances, Lowe earned $21 of value after hitting 20 home runs and stealing 32 bases with a .292 batting average in 501 plate appearances.
The Case For Lowe
Lowe has the power and speed that fantasy players love. Lowe converted 91 percent of his stolen base chances and had tons of opportunities, attempting 35 steals. He has average to above-average speed to help him take advantage of any chances to run. Lowe's 7.6 percent barrels per plate appearance sat nearly four points above the league average, while his 113.3 mph maximum exit velocity ranked 70th out of 258 qualified hitters.
The Case Against Lowe
Lowe used an aggressive approach with a high zone swing rate and also chased 38.9 percent of the time, seven points above the league average. His overall and zone contact rates finished four points below the league norm, raising concerns about whether he could post another season with a batting average anywhere near .290.
Lowe ran a high BABIP in the minors and has carried that into the majors, with a career .353 BABIP at the highest level. Betting on a player sustaining a high BABIP typically isn't a viable strategy, though this game has outliers. Finally, platoon risks give us further pause with Lowe, given his career .534 OPS and 51 wRC+ in 113 plate appearances against lefties. That could limit his volume moving forward.
Verdict
Lowe's power is a mixed bag, as he ranks 191st in exit velocity on flyballs and line drives at 91.9 mph, tied with Harold Ramirez, Leody Taveras and Akil Baddoo. That indicates Lowe doesn't crush the ball when he elevates it, which can be a concern, though we probably shouldn't overreact. Fantasy managers love hitters with power and speed, but the projections say to be careful on a repeat of 2023.
A hitter giving us 18-20 home runs with 23-25 stolen bases and a .250 batting average is still a valuable asset. However, there's a chance he's a bit overvalued, especially if his lower plate-appearance total due to platoons keeps his homers and steals in check. Go after Cedric Mullins instead about 60-70 picks later.
Zack Gelof, 2B, OAK
Gelof is the only Athletics player going inside the top 200 picks. He has one of the higher InterSD among hitters inside the top 150. Gelof came up in July and made an immediate fantasy impact with 14 homers, 14 stolen bases and a .267 batting average. He batted second in the lineup in 78.3 percent of his plate appearances, which should continue in 2024.
The Case For Gelof
Gelof's power and speed skills look legitimate. That's evident in his above-average barrels per plate appearance rate of seven percent. Though his exit velocity on flyballs and line drives of 93.2 mph (ranked 156th out of 343 qualified hitters with at least 150 batted-ball events) might not pop off the page, he pulls the ball 46.6 percent of the time. The visual below shows the hitters who managed at least a 1.000 xwOBA on pulled barrels and an average exit velocity within 0.2 mph of Gelof's mark on those batted balls:
Gelof averages 104.2 mph on pulled barrels, near hitters like Adley Rutschman, Jonathan India, Jarred Kelenic, Dansby Swanson, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Tucker. Gelof combined that power with good speed, as the athletic infielder played solid defense and converted 87 percent of his stolen-base attempts while showing 91st-percentile sprint speed. Those underlying skills make the power and speed Gelof showed in his 69-game debut easier to buy into.
The Case Against Gelof
Like some power hitters, Gelof struggles to make contact, evidenced by his 74.7 percent zone contact rate and his overall contact rate of 67.9 percent. That's roughly 10 percent below league average in both categories, revealing his struggles to make contact, which could lead to inconsistencies in his sophomore season. Gelof swings in the zone 73.5 percent of the time, showing a slightly more aggressive approach, which can be problematic when paired with weak zone contact numbers. Additionally, Gelof's team context raises concerns after the Athletics ranked 26th in wRC+ in 2023 with a collective mark of 89.
Verdict
Gelof possesses the power and speed skills to finish with a 20/20 season. Besides the homers and steals, temper expectations on his runs plus RBI. He ran a higher BABIP in the minors due to his healthy line drive rates and speed, but the plate discipline makes us question whether that sustains. Considering a reasonable outcome of a .250 batting average, 20 homers, and 20 stolen bases, Gelof should easily match and exceed his projected value of $11 based on ADP.
