Farm Futures: Dynasty Rankings Update/Top 100 Prospects

Farm Futures: Dynasty Rankings Update/Top 100 Prospects

This article is part of our Farm Futures series.

I completed the full update to the top 400 dynasty rankings Friday night. These take so much time and effort to get to a point where I feel comfortable publishing them that I was unable to finish the full update to the top 400 prospect rankings this week, as initially planned. However, I will provide a sneak peak at the updated top 100 prospects at the bottom of this article.

First, I want to note some things regarding how these dynasty rankings are intended to be used.

  • These are for 5x5 rotisserie leagues where OBP is used instead of AVG.
  • These are roughly intended for 15-team leagues where every team starts two catchers. (One example of these first two factors coming into play is Adley Rutschman being the sixth ranked prospect, while he is the 10th ranked prospect on the prospect rankings, which are for AVG leagues where roughly 20 catchers are started).
  • I love the guys who steal bases and provide positive value in other categories, but the Adalberto Mondesi types aren't anchors to me in dynasty leagues, because you don't need to win that category or even finish top third to win your league. In fact, if my roster build has been executed perfectly, stolen bases will be my worst offensive category.
  • Like any good set of projections, these rankings are intended to be used as a starting point or a tool, NOT as a decisive factor in trades or startup drafts. Part of what makes these rankings

I completed the full update to the top 400 dynasty rankings Friday night. These take so much time and effort to get to a point where I feel comfortable publishing them that I was unable to finish the full update to the top 400 prospect rankings this week, as initially planned. However, I will provide a sneak peak at the updated top 100 prospects at the bottom of this article.

First, I want to note some things regarding how these dynasty rankings are intended to be used.

  • These are for 5x5 rotisserie leagues where OBP is used instead of AVG.
  • These are roughly intended for 15-team leagues where every team starts two catchers. (One example of these first two factors coming into play is Adley Rutschman being the sixth ranked prospect, while he is the 10th ranked prospect on the prospect rankings, which are for AVG leagues where roughly 20 catchers are started).
  • I love the guys who steal bases and provide positive value in other categories, but the Adalberto Mondesi types aren't anchors to me in dynasty leagues, because you don't need to win that category or even finish top third to win your league. In fact, if my roster build has been executed perfectly, stolen bases will be my worst offensive category.
  • Like any good set of projections, these rankings are intended to be used as a starting point or a tool, NOT as a decisive factor in trades or startup drafts. Part of what makes these rankings so hard to put together is that there are so many factors at play regarding how valuable a certain player is to your team. Are you a legitimate contender? Are you loaded on the pitching side but light on hitting? Have your past tendencies shown a strong ability to add closers off the waiver wire, or a strong ability to add the next hot prospect before he is seen as a consensus top-100 prospect? Is your league in danger of dissolving in a year or two? These (and many other factors) are all worth considering when evaluating each individual player.
  • I feel good about these rankings — good enough to put my name behind them anyway — but I promise you I'd change dozens of things about these in a couple days, let alone a couple weeks, and you could probably convince me I'm too high or too low on many of these players less than 24 hours after I published them. I say this to stress again that these are a tool, not the be all end all.
  • Dynasty baseball is supposed to be fun, and if you know what you're doing, you'll have a blast. Don't accept a trade that's going to make the game less fun for you just because a set of rankings tells you it's a good deal. If you're able to separate emotion from the game, then you're a rare breed, and you're also probably quite successful. However, I always remember my bad trades more than my good trades, so just be careful out there.
  • If I'm much higher or lower on someone than you are, it's fine (and recommended) to trust your own evaluations to a large degree, especially if dynasty baseball is something you've had success with in the past.

I'm happy to discuss any player in the comments section or on Twitter, but here are some quick notes on the top of the rankings:

My top 11 (Acuna, Tatis, Soto, Vlad, Trout, Turner, Betts, Bellinger, Bichette, J-Ram, Harper) was pretty easy to put together. Once I ranked those guys, the order didn't change once over the span of the rest of the time I spent on these.

I told my friend Ian Kahn a few days ago that I wasn't going to have any pitchers in my top 20, but I ended up making a late audible to move Gerrit Cole up to 15. Yes, a rebuilding club whose window to win won't open for a couple years should be looking to trade Cole, but they can drive a hard bargain and get a massive haul, while the contending teams with Cole are locked and loaded to hunt championships for the foreseeable future.

Shohei Ohtani's ranking is for weekly leagues and I'm ranking him here based on the assumption that I'm only ever going to start him as a hitter, with the potential exception of a rare two-start week. Of course, the dream for anyone who has Ohtani in dynasty is that he scraps pitching and becomes a full-time right fielder, at which point he could challenge for a 50-homer/25-steal season. His value in dynasty leagues has been all over the map ever since he signed with the Angels, and I still think there could be plenty of volatility here going forward, so I don't feel great about where I have him.

Christian Yelich (24), Trevor Story (44) and Francisco Lindor (50) were three of the biggest fallers. 

Yelich might be the hardest player to value in dynasty right now — probably either him or Ohtani. Prior to 2020, Yelich was a god in OBP dynasty — someone you could build around who would anchor all five roto categories and who looked poised to have another 4-5 more years of prime production. His recurring back issues are concerning, but not as concerning as his 31.2 K% since the start of 2020. Of course, the back issues are a factor with the strikeouts, and the conditions of the 2020 season seemed to hurt him more than most players, so I don't think this new K-rate is undoubtedly here to stay, but it could be. Story's production has been down this year and he may only have two months (or less) left to call Coors Field home, so that uncertainty makes him very tricky to value. I know Lindor isn't as bad as he has been this season, but all of his batted-ball data is at a career-worst level and I'm not sure what level we can expect him to bounce back to. This could be an overreaction, but shortstop is so deep and his stolen bases are less of a swing factor than they are in redraft contests with overall prizes, so I'm wary about assuming we'll see the 2018-2019 version of Lindor again.

TOP 100 PROSPECTS

This is a sneak peak at the top 100 of the top 400 prospect rankings, which will be updated next week. As you should know, the prospect rankings are for 5x5 rotisserie with AVG instead of OBP and are roughly intended for 20-team leagues where each team starts one catcher. I'll probably make some changes inside the top 100 before fully updating the rankings on the site, but this preview should capture the notable movement you'll see. I've also noted where I think the tier drops are within the top 100.

 TIER 1PositionTeamDOBSigned
1Jarred KelenicOFMariners7/16/19992018 Draft
2Wander FrancoSS/2B/3BRays3/1/20012017 J-2
3Julio RodriguezOFMariners12/29/20002017 J-2
4CJ AbramsSS/OF/2BPadres10/3/20002019 Draft
5Bobby WittSS/3BRoyals6/14/20002019 Draft
 TIER 2    
6Brennen DavisOFCubs11/2/19992018 Draft
7Noelvi Marte3B/SSMariners10/16/20012018 J-2
8Marco LucianoSS/3B/OFGiants9/10/20012018 J-2
9Ke'Bryan Hayes3BPirates1/28/19972015 Draft
10Adley RutschmanCOrioles2/6/19982019 Draft
11Alex KirilloffOFTwins11/9/19972016 Draft
12Riley GreeneOFTigers9/28/20002019 Draft
13Vidal BrujanOF/2BRays2/9/19982014 IFA
14Corbin CarrollOFDiamondbacks8/21/20002019 Draft
15Spencer Torkelson1B/3BTigers8/26/19992020 Draft
 TIER 3    
16Alek ManoahRHPBlue Jays1/9/19982019 Draft
17Triston Casas1BRed Sox1/15/20002018 Draft
18Jasson DominguezOFYankees2/7/20032019 J-2
19Tyler Freeman2BCleveland5/21/19992017 Draft
20Austin MartinOF/3B/2BBlue Jays3/23/19992020 Draft
21Luis MatosOFGiants1/28/20022018 J-2
22Nick Gonzales2BPirates5/27/19992020 Draft
23Heliot RamosOFGiants09/07/19992017 Draft
24Michael HarrisOFAtlanta3/7/20012019 Draft
 TIER 4    
25Hedbert PerezOFBrewers4/4/20032019 J-2
26George KirbyRHPMariners2/4/19982019 Draft
27Max MeyerRHPMarlins3/12/19992020 Draft
28Grayson RodriguezRHPOrioles11/16/19992018 Draft
29Shane McClanahanLHPRays4/28/19972018 Draft
30Jackson KowarRHPRoyals10/4/19962018 Draft
31Trevor LarnachOF/DHTwins2/26/19972018 Draft
32Jordan Groshans3BBlue Jays11/10/19992018 Draft
33Josh Jung3BRangers2/12/19982019 Draft
34Josh LoweOFRays2/2/19982016 Draft
35Robert HassellOFPadres8/15/20012020 Draft
36Drew WatersOFAtlanta12/30/19982017 Draft
37Royce LewisSS/OF/3BTwins6/5/19992017 Draft
38Michael Busch2B/1B/OF/DHDodgers11/9/19972019 Draft
39Simeon Woods RichardsonRHPBlue Jays9/27/20002018 Draft
40Wilman DiazSS/3B/OFDodgers11/15/20032020 J-2
41Francisco AlvarezCMets11/19/20012018 J-2
42Gunnar Henderson3B/SSOrioles6/29/20012019 Draft
43Jesus SanchezOFMarlins10/7/19972014 J-2
 TIER 5    
44Jeter Downs2BRed Sox7/27/19982017 Draft
45Sixto SanchezRHPMarlins7/29/19982015 IFA
46Cade CavalliRHPNationals8/14/19982020 Draft
47Matt ManningRHPTigers1/28/19982016 Draft
48Alek ThomasOFDiamondbacks4/28/20002018 Draft
49George ValeraOFCleveland11/13/20002017 J-2
50Brandon MarshOFAngels12/18/19972016 Draft
51Logan GilbertRHPMariners5/5/19972018 Draft
52Nate PearsonRHPBlue Jays8/20/19962017 Draft
53MacKenzie GoreLHPPadres2/24/19992017 Draft
54DL HallLHPOrioles9/19/19982017 Draft
55Nolan Gorman2B/3BCardinals5/10/20002018 Draft
56Tyler SoderstromC/3B/OFA's11/24/20012020 Draft
57Pete Crow-ArmstrongOFMets3/25/20022020 Draft
58Jarren DuranOFRed Sox9/5/19962018 Draft
59Ronny MauricioSS/3BMets4/4/20012017 J-2
60JJ BledayOFMarlins11/10/19972019 Draft
61Hunter BishopOFGiants8/24/19982019 Draft
62Austin WellsC/OFYankees7/12/19992020 Draft
63Garrett MitchellOFBrewers9/4/19982020 Draft
64Jordyn AdamsOFAngels10/18/19992018 Draft
65Liover PegueroSSPirates12/31/20002017 J-2
66Oswald PerazaSSYankees6/15/20002016 J-2
67Nick Pratto1BRoyals10/6/19982017 Draft
68Kristian RobinsonOFDiamondbacks12/11/20002017 J-2
69Carlos ColmenarezSS/2B/3BRays11/15/20032020 J-2
70Cristian Hernandez3B/SS/OFCubs12/13/20032020 J-2
71Zac VeenOFRockies12/12/20012020 Draft
72Pedro LeonSS/OFAstros5/28/19982020 J-2
 TIER 6    
73Slade CecconiRHPDiamondbacks6/24/19992020 Draft
74Nick LodoloLHPReds2/5/19982019 Draft
75Reid DetmersLHPAngels7/8/19992020 Draft
76Zach McKinstry2B/3B/OFDodgers4/29/19952016 Draft
77Asa LacyLHPRoyals6/2/19992020 Draft
78Josiah GrayRHPDodgers12/21/19972018 Draft
79Emerson HancockRHPMariners5/31/19992020 Draft
80Shane BazRHPRays6/17/19992017 Draft
81Daniel EspinoRHPCleveland1/5/20012019 Draft
82Orelvis Martinez3BBlue Jays11/19/20012018 J-2
83Chris RodriguezRHPAngels7/20/19982016 Draft
84Travis SwaggertyOFPirates8/19/19972018 Draft
85Hunter GreeneRHPReds8/6/19992017 Draft
86Taylor TrammellOFMariners9/13/19972016 Draft
87Tanner BurnsRHPCleveland12/28/19982020 Draft
88Luis MedinaRHPYankees5/3/19992015 J-2
89Heriberto HernandezC/DH/OFRays12/16/19992017 IFA
90Erick PenaOFRoyals2/20/20032019 J-2
91Quinn PriesterRHPPirates9/15/20002019 Draft
92Angel Martinez2B/SSCleveland1/27/20022018 J-2
93Roansy ContrerasRHPPirates11/7/19992016 J-2
94Austin HendrickOFReds6/15/20012020 Draft
95Jordan Walker3B/OFCardinals5/22/20022020 Draft
96Geraldo PerdomoSSDiamondbacks10/22/19992016 J-2
97Maximo AcostaSSRangers10/29/20022019 J-2
98Will Wilson2BGiants7/21/19982019 Draft
99Luis GilRHPYankees6/3/19982015 IFA
100Gilberto JimenezOFRed Sox7/8/20002017 IFA

I'll have an article next week accompanying the updated prospect rankings, but I'm also happy to answer any initial questions in the comments of this article. In the meantime, I hope everyone enjoys the holiday weekend. Cheers.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
James Anderson
James Anderson is RotoWire's Lead Prospect Analyst, Assistant Baseball Editor, and co-host of Farm Fridays on Sirius/XM radio and the RotoWire Prospect Podcast.
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