This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
They say a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally, and that was the case for me yesterday, as the picks were as good as they've been all season. My hope in writing these columns is to provide some information, and allow readers to sort through it and pick the right combo. Hopefully someone did and took down a GPP last night. The day job had me slammed and I failed to enter one unfortunately. Minor consolation, I entered a single-game tournament that didn't look like it would fill at the last minute and won! Not a huge prize, but a 15x return on investment had me sleeping well.
All of that success likely means I'm destined for regression Saturday, where we've got an odd eight-game main slate that features all games starting between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. No night games, unfortunately, means no Coors Field, no Yankees and no Dodgers, so we'll really have to dial it in offensively. All 16 teams have listed starters, so there shouldn't be many surprises. Let's dive in!
Pitching
We've only got one five-figure arm Saturday in Miami's Pablo Lopez ($10,000) who faces off against the slate's second-highest priced arm in Logan Webb ($9,700). Both are terrific options both on talent and form, but it may come surprising to hear both offenses are in the top-five in terms of wOBA against righties and fan 22.0 percent or less. My preference in the top tier turns to Dylan Cease ($9,600) for GPPs. He's been incredibly inconsistent, but the Rays have the highest strikeout rate of the opponents in the upper tier of arms at 24.7 percent, while posting only a .297 wOBA and are somewhat injury depleted. Triston McKenzie ($9,400) is surging and figures to be a fine choice against Baltimore, too.
The next tier down is going to lead many to safe choices in Nick Pivetta ($9,000) against lowly Oakland or Houston's Luis Garcia ($8,900) against Kansas City, where he should see ample run support. In an effort to be different, I'd encourage consideration of Drew Rasmussen ($8,700) or Tyler Mahle ($8,600). Rasmussen comes with some risk, as the White Sox don't strike out (19.5 percent) and he's not proven he can make it six innings, but Chicago ranks 28th against righties with only a .279 wOBA and .110 ISO. Mahle seems to be surging with three quality starts in his last four, showing he does have innings upside. Washington also doesn't strike out much (20.5 percent), but a 95 wRC+ isn't of much concern.
I have a hard time justifying the prices on most of the arms below the above names. Eight thousand for Marco Gonzales? No thanks. JT Brubaker was one of my misses Friday; dare we go to the well again against Arizona? There isn't a ton of upside in Roansy Contreras ($6,900), but he's the one name that sticks out at the bottom. Arizona strikes out 24.7 percent of the time against righties, hopefully allowing Contreras' 9.2 K/9 to play up a tad. He's averaged 24.75 FanDuel points (FDP) in his last four despite not going more than five frames. That's a reasonably safe floor at a nice discount.
Top Targets
Jose Ramirez ($4,600) is $500 more than any other bat Saturday, a steep price to pay for sure. But he's almost always a plug and play against righties, where he carries a .459 wOBA, 210 wRC+, .357 ISO, and only 8.6 percent K rate. Tyler Wells hasn't been as bad as the price suggests, and Ramirez's hard-hit rates aren't great either. But best not overthink this.
I can't quite get to a Boston stack on Saturday against Paul Blackburn, who's been darn good in his own right. But any of Rafael Devers ($4,000), Xander Bogaerts ($3,800) and/or J.D. Martinez ($3,800) profile well, with all having a wOBA of at least .377.
Value Bats
I intentionally omitted Houston bats from the prior section. They are going to be incredibly popular, and you'll need at least one piece, likely more, against Kris Bubic to compete. So you can simply grab Yordan Alvarez ($4,000) and/or Jose Altuve ($3,800) and move on, which is certainly more than fine. Altuve in particular has shown great power against lefties with a .361 ISO. But we can also trust the stats and potentially seek some value in this lineup from Jeremy Pena ($3,400), who carries a team-leading .412 wOBA and 179 wRC+, with just a 13.5 percent soft contact rate.
Joey Votto ($2,800) has been quietly productive since returning from injury on May 20th, hitting .333 with a .546 wOBA, 249 wRC+, .600 ISO and 52.2 percent hard-hit rate against righties. He's also gone deep in consecutive games.
Glenn Otto has been pretty solid for the Rangers, but has been hit hard by righties for a .370 wOBA against just a .265 wOBA to opposite-handed bats. The struggle here is if we trust that, we can't trust the Mariners, because most of their success against righties comes from opposite-handed bats. Ty France ($3,500) is the exception, having posted a .399 wOBA and 172 wRC+ in this situation. If we want to trust the Mariners work as opposed to Otto's, we can potentially find further value from a surging Taylor Trammell ($2,300) who has nine hits over his last seven games, and boasts a .489 wOBA, .350 ISO and 236 wRC+ across just 25 plate appearances.
Stack to Consider
Rangers vs. Mariners (Marco Gonzales): Corey Seager ($3,900), Mitch Garver ($3,100), Nathaniel Lowe ($2,800)
If we're going to trust the advanced numbers, and those alone, the Rangers are in for smashing success Saturday. It's a small sample, just 44 plate appearances, but lefties are crushing Gonzales to the tune of a .524 wOBA and 1.240 OPS despite just a moderate 31.4 percent hard hit rate. Texas, conveniently, has four regular bats that carry a wOBA of at least .380, which is where our anchor in Seager sits, also sporting a 155 wRC+ and .294 ISO with just a 10.0 percent soft contact rate. Lowe has the same ISO, while sitting with a .394 wOBA and 165 wRC+. Garver gives us some additional power potential, albeit from the right side, boasting a .342 ISO to go with a .412 wOBA and 178 wRC+. This will be a true test for BvP however, as this trio is a combined 6-of-25 (.240) against Gonzales overall.
