This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
After only a showdown slate to work with Sunday, we return to the traditional contest format Monday – albeit with only two games. Instead of our typical breakdown, I'll spend a bit of time discussing each team and how they can be projected to set up Monday.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
The pitching matchup is Framber Valdez ($8,200) and Nathan Eovaldi ($7,800), the two lowest-priced pitchers on the slate. While that makes sense given their counterparts in the National League, the fact that Valdez is more expensive than Eovaldi is interesting. Both stumbled in the second half of the regular season, though Eovaldi appears to have turned things around by posting 15:0 K:BB across 13.2 postseason innings while allowing only two earned runs. Meanwhile, Valdez allowed posted a 4.66 ERA in the second half of the regular season and was crushed in his lone postseason start to this point.
While his HR/9, wOBA and other metrics don't reflect handedness splits, Valdez had a 23.3 percent strikeout rate against righties as opposed to a 31.7 percent mark against lefties. I'd be looking to target right-handed hitters against as a result. The Rangers haven't faced a southpaw to this point in the postseason, but Robbie Grossman ($2,900) closed the regular season hitting third in that scenario. Mitch Garver ($3,600) has occupied that spot in the postseason and would be a strong value option as well. The rest of a potential stack is fairly obvious, just don't automatically fade Corey Seager ($6,300) because he doesn't have the handedness advantage.
On the other side of the matchup, Eovaldi has a similar phenomenon to Valdez. His surface stats are worse against righties, but his K% dips significantly against lefties. The Astros have a nice lefty stack through the middle of their lineup, with Yordan Alvarez ($6,200) and Kyle Tucker ($5,100) being the obvious options and Michael Brantley ($3,400) checking in as the potential value.
I'd be more interested in stacking the Rangers, but recency bias is admittedly playing a factor in this analysis.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
We get a great matchup in Game 1 with Zac Gallen ($8,500) taking on Zack Wheeler ($8,700). Wheeler has been lights out in two postseason starts (18:1 K:BB, three ER across 13 innings), which is largely a continuation of his regular season. On paper, I don't have interest in stacking the Arizona offense. For those who want to play contrarian, a reasonable strategy given the small slate, lefties should be targeted as Wheeler has wide splits based on handedness. Corbin Carroll ($5,600) and Ketel Marte ($4,700) are the obvious and expensive options, while Geraldo Perdomo ($3,000) will be more unique and is also very cheap. He's the ninth hitter and could be an unconventional stack to connect to the top of the order.
The Phillies join Texas as a good stacking option on paper. Gallen was a Cy Young candidate for much of the season, but his performance faded down the stretch. His postseason results look solid, but he has only an 8:5 K:BB across 11.1 innings. The Phillies are my favorite stack of the day. The top of the order is an obvious option, but Alec Bohm ($3,700) and Bryson Stott ($3,800) hit immediately after the elite hitters and represent values.
Conclusion
On paper, I'd rank the SP in the following order: Wheeler, Eovaldi, Valdez, Gallen.
I'd rank potential stacks: PHI, TEX, HOU, ARI
