Collette Calls: Home Run Derby Curse?

(Stats are through games played on August 19th.)

We are about a month past what was a rather entertaining Home Run Derby in Seattle this season, so we have enough data to look at whether participating in the gala ruined any of the eight notable hitters from that event. 

The "Home Run Derby Curse" is something we have heard often over the years along with the Madden Curse from that other sport, but is this curse real or is it something which should be chucked into the pseudoscience bin, where things such as the Age 27 theory and the idea that banning the shift will fix batting average live?

Mike Petriello of MLB.com touched on this subject in 2021 for an article and found that five of the eight participants in 2017 did worse after the derby simply by comparing OPS. He then went into some of the underlying causes of some of the declines, as some of the players came down with injuries while others were simply unable to continue producing at the unsustainable levels they had in the first half of the season. 2018 saw similar results, as did 2019. 

If that three-year recent review was not enough for you, SABR posted an article to its Fall 2010 Baseball Research Journal written by Marcus Jaiclin and Joseph McCollum. In an article that Chevy Chase would not enjoy reading, the authors concluded about the curse that, "we have no choice but to conclude that it's fiction."

More recently, LIam Bradford of The Spokesman-Review in Spokane, Washington wrote on the topic and got some interesting quotes from minor-league hitting coach Zach Osborne. Osborne firmly planted himself on the fence in stating that:

"It can definitely affect certain hitters, depending on their approach," Spokane Indians hitting coach Zach Osborne said. "The amount of reps that they get in the derby can put them in that pull-heavy mindset. It gets them away from the in-game approach of getting the ball off-gap or to center field."

"I don't think it will ruin a player's swing. It might put them in a funk for a couple games, but the good ones can make that adjustment," Osborne said. "It can lead guys to be more prone to swinging at off-speed pitches in the dirt and hitting soft ground balls."

Bradford went on to quote a stat from MLB.com stating that 43 of the 74 participants between 1999 and 2010 saw a decrease in their production after the All-Star break. He also noted that from that aforementioned span of 2017-2019, one player saw their OPS drop by 200 points or more in the second half of the season. With that factoid in mind, let's look at the eight most recent participants of the derby and how they are doing since the break.

#1 Seed - Luis Robert Jr.

We know the All-Star break was not right at the 80-game mark, but for the purposes of this article, we can use that as a landing point. Note that Robert Jr.'s home run to flyball ratio had peaked prior to the break, but also that his pull tendencies began increasing in June and have continued to rise throughout this summer. There is much to be disappointed with in Chicago this season, but this is the one bastion of production we have enjoyed throughout the season while everything around him has mostly fallen apart in some way, shape or form. 

#2 Seed - Pete Alonso

Maybe the Derby was exactly what Alonso needed to fix his season? While he did not three-peat as the champ, Alonso has been a beacon of hope for a dismal summer in Queens for fantasy managers as he has been on a production tear with 12 homers, 21 runs and 32 RBI since the break. Nothing to see here; move along folks. The Polar Bear is feasting as he prepares for a winter of postseason hibernation.

#3 Seed - Mookie Betts

Elites are going to elite. Betts has been awesome in the second half with 8 homers, 29 runs, 24 RBI and a .355 batting average. He does not steal many bases these days, but he has an outside shot to reach 50 homers and become just the fourth player in the last 10 seasons to have at least 50 homers, 100 runs and 100 RBI, joining Pete Alonso, Aaron Judge (2x) and Giancarlo Stanton despite being a fraction of their sizes. Matt Olson and Shohei Ohtani are both locks to make the 50/100/100 club but Betts could join them if he continues his hot second-half hitting. The derby clearly had no negative impact on him. 

#4 Seed - Adolis Garcia

Ladies and gentlemen, we have one. Garcia has indeed played right into the concerns which Osborne outlined in his quote to the paper in July. Garcia has seen his pull rate as well as his groundball rate spike in recent weeks while his production has dipped. He had 23 homers, 69 runs, and 75 RBI prior to the break, but has seven, 20 and 17 in those same categories over his last 30 games as the Texas offense has cooled off around him. The biggest issue for Garcia these days is his struggle to make contact with pitches in the strike zone, as he appears to be in a serious rut at the plate:

Seed #5 - Randy Arozarena

I do not watch every Rays game, but I do watch most of them, and it took Arozarena a few weeks to realize the Home Run Derby was over. He looked as lost as he ever has in his career for most of July, as he lost all semblance of plate discipline and struggled through his at-bats offering at pitches he could do little with. He's continued giving up the plate discipline he demonstrated earlier in the season when he was showing signs of reaching another level of production:

He has only recently begun showing signs of discipline at the plate and laying off sliders down and away or elevated fastballs up and in. Perhaps he is turning a corner now and get back to better production down the stretch, but July was a rather brutal stretch for Arozarena as he got into and out of a home run mindset.

Seed #6 - Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero Jr.'s season has been problematic all year as the surefire first rounder has been anything but that this season despite the park and lineup changes in Toronto. It took him until nearly June to hit his first home run in front of the hometown fans, and he's returned to a high level of grounders for most of this season. About the only thing that has gone right for him this season was him winning the derby in July, because his season has otherwise been consistently underwhelming. The saving grace for managers could be a Toronto schedule which looks like this the rest of the way:

• 3 @ Baltimore
• 3 vs Cleveland
• 3 vs Washington
• 3 @ Colorado
• 3 @ Oakland
• 3 vs Kansas City
• 4 vs Texas
• 3 vs Boston
• 3 @ New York
• 3 @ Tampa Bay
• 3 vs New York
• 3 vs Tampa Bay

There are plenty of favorable matchups for Guerrero Jr. and his mates to add some serious fantasy damage down the stretch if they're up for it.

Seed #7 - Julio Rodriguez

Rodriguez is coming off a week where he seemingly went 34 for his last 20. All kidding aside, the kid is red hot and has shown no ill effects of trying to put on a show for the hometown fans in July. Yes, his pull rate has noticeably spiked, but he's also hitting flyballs over the fence at twice the rate he was before the break while hitting everything else in sight. The good news for him is the lineup around him is improving as well after most of it was in a slumber for a good portion of the season. 

Seed #8 - Adley Rutschman

Rutschman has had an incredibly consistent season given his youth and the demands of his position. Sure, he may have gotten a little pull-happy since the derby, but his production has not suffered much from it and Baltimore continues to far exceed preseason expectations. If not for the dimensions in Camden, he could be having a monster season. 

Arozarena and Garcia have had issues since the break and the derby, but the other six have maintained their production if not improved it. This is very much in line with the previously mentioned research, which only reinforces the fact that the concern about the Home Run derby messing up swings is mostly yet another example of baseball fiction over fact.