College Baseball Best Bets: Sunday, March 289
Well, the cookie ain't really crumbling my way this weekend. Another tight/one-run loss with the Auburn-Alabama game, add it to the resume. We still have an opportunity to get right with a little Sunday magic.
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Mississippi State Bulldogs (-180) @ Ole Miss Rebels (+140) | Total: N/A
One thing I felt strongly about this season was Mississippi State was going to be a legit Omaha threat. As a preseason Omaha 8 team of mine, State was bringing in a new element with Brian O'Connor leading the charge in his new chapter. The Dawgs haven't disappointed this season as they sit with a pristine 23-4 (6-2 SEC) record. They've already taken the series at in-state rival Ole Miss. But the real question will be if the latter shows any fight to avoid a sweeparoo.
I believed the best chance for Ole Miss to win a game in this series was Friday with ace Hunter Elliott pitching. They took a one-run lead in the 9th and ultimately blew it. They were trounced on Saturday. And now on Sunday they're thin with pitching as they have no dedicated starter. But for Miss State, they've got a solid Sunday starter in Duke Stone ready to go.
Stone isn't invincible, but he's still somebody that should be able to give you four-plus innings with a chance to stay in the game. Although he has gotten touched up in his last two starts against Vandy and Arkansas, allowing six earned and nine hits in 8.2 IP. He'll now see a Rebs offense that's hit and miss.
Where Ole Miss has a chance to score some runs in this one starts with Tristan Bissetta (.355 avg, 1.219 OPS, 14 HR) and Judd Utermark (.307 avg, 1.128 OPS, 11 HR) pacing this lineup. After them, there hasn't been enough quality, with no other bats having more five homers. Unless somebody steps up, it's likely going to rely on either Bissetta or Utermark to make a big impact here. Luckily for Ole Miss, Stone has allowed five homers already.
I'm not sure who Ole Miss will be throwing because they've already used so many key arms in this series. They do have a few high-leverage guys that should be available like JP Robertson (2.93 ERA), Grayson Gibson (2.25 ERA), and Landon Waters (0.00 ERA), so I'd imagine there will be mixing and matching. Whoever it is will be dealing with a deep Dawgs lineup led by potential 2026 first-rounder Ace Reese (.333 avg, 7 HR) and Bryce Chance (.444 avg, 1.111 OPS). There's a lot of capable bats in this lineup worth mentioning, but frankly I would have to highlight almost the entire offense.
Pretty much every advantage leans with Mississippi State in this one. However, it's incredibly difficult to sweep a rival on the road. Against my better judgement, I'm taking a shot on Ole Miss to salvage the series with a nice plus money price. This should be higher scoring so anything under 14.5 should be in play with an over.
Pick: Ole Miss ML +140 (FD)
