College Baseball Best Bet: Thursday, March 25
The last weekend of March is featuring a fat buffet of goodies with the schedule. We're almost at that point where we are truly learning who is for real and who isn't. The Thursday slate is a little light, making it a challenge to throw down a bet, but I have something worth a shot.
Miami Hurricanes (+124) at Clemson (-160) (O/U: 11)
It's not very likely we'll be seeing one of these two teams compete for the ACC crown, but they're still capable of putting up a good fight. Miami was really struggling before last week, losing three straight series, but a non-conference weekend series against Creighton acted as a nice little slump buster to get right. For Clemson, it's been bad... all bad.
What's killed Clemson so far is they're basically done before the series starts. Friday guy Aidan Knaak was trending as a first-rounder, maybe even top-15 pick, for this summer's draft the last couple years. But it's been a downhill regression with him that's putting the Tigers in a hole almost every Friday night. Last week against Notre Dame, he actually was solid (5 IP, 1 ER, 8K), but Clemson ran into the buzz saw that is my guy Jack Radel. Previously, he got shellacked against Georgia Tech (duh) for six earned over four frames, and bombarded against South Carolina for four runs over five innings. With Knaak's inability to be consistently effective and eat up innings, it's putting Clemson at a disadvantage. Additionally, the offense isn't delivering enough either.
The offense's counting stats have been strong, but they're shaky run production during these weekend series isn't helping. Against Ga. Tech, the Tigers only scored 16 runs on the weekend with 13 coming from the Sunday game, which inflated the numbers. At Notre Dame last weekend, Clemson only managed 11 runs. And, with 27 runs in six conference games (4.5 runs per game), that won't get you many wins in the ACC.
Clemson will see Miami's freshman lefty, Sebastian Santos-Olson on Thursday. SSO is sporting a 4.5 ERA in six appearances (four starts), along with an 18:9 K:BB ratio in 18 innings. Normally, it would be AJ Ciscar in a Game 1, but there's rumors floating around he's dealing with an injury of some sort. It's difficult to know what to expect from Santos-Olson as he faces a Clemson offense with some solid production in the lineup.
The Tigers are sporting a .297 average with 34 homers, anchored by Nate Savoie (.392 avg, 9 HR, 1.195 OPS), Jacob Jarrell (1.084 OPS, 11 HR), and Tryston McCladdie .337 avg, 5 HR) with several others contributing. SSO obviously needs to cut down on the free passes, but the focus also has to be pitching low in the zone since the Tigers play in a band box.
Knaak will see a Miami lineup anchored by my guy Daniel Cuvet and his impressive start (.341 avg, 1.269 OPS, 10 HR). With Derek Williams having a breakout year (.422 avg, 1.347 OPS, 9 HR) and Alex Sosa on fire (.330 avg, 1.135 OPS, 8 HR), the Canes have a path to score in this one. Knaak is seeing a red-hot offense that's batting .324 with 45 bops.
Part of me wants to back Clemson and Knaak, especially seeing how he's gotten literally ZERO runs of support in his last three outings, but I can't bet on them right now. I don't love betting Miami with a SSO on the mound either, but it has been the hotter offense. I'm rolling with the Hurricanes in this one and would play an over if we get anything under 11.5.
The Pick: Miami ML (-140 DraftKings)
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