College Baseball Best Bet: Saturday, March 28
Jackson Flora once again gave up no runs and yet UCSB couldn't win the game. SMH. But it's a new day with some new looks on the board. Perhaps a day for redemption for myself and others.
Auburn Tigers (-154) at Alabama Crimson Tide (+120) (O/U: 11.5)
Auburn Tigers (-154) @ Alabama Crimson Tide (+120) | Total: 11.5
Alabama absolutely boat-raced the Auburn Tigers on Friday. After Auburn grabbed a 1-0 lead, it was lights out for them. No. 11 isn't just the number one of my favorite players of all-time, Julio Jones wore. It's not only the name of one of my favorite places in Miami, but it represents how many consecutive runs Bama went on to score enroute to a mercy rule victory.
Looking for a flush, Auburn is sending out Jackson Sanders to the mound. If I'm not mistaken, this is the second straight Saturday I've written up a game involving him. Heading into that matchup last week against Texas, I mentioned how good he had been doing, but hadn't faced a buzzsaw like the Longhorns yet. While that came to pass in a 4 ER-2.2 IP performance, he has a chance to bounce back this weekend against the Tide.
Sanders is still having a good year with his 3.66 ERA and 45:8 K:BB ratio across 32 IP. And while he won't face many lineups of Texas' caliber, Alabama is still no slouch. And the crazy part is its best player and likely top three pick in this summer's draft, Justin Lebron, hasn't even gotten hot. He does have 11 homers even if he's only batting .284, but does have 22 steals. Along with Lebron, it's Brady Neal going scorched Earth for this team (.368 average, 1.094 OPS, 5 HR). This Bama lineup does have some juice and several contributors. If Sanders wants to bounce back he needs to avoid the big mistake he made against Texas: the long ball.
On the other side, the Crimson Tide is going with Zane Adams and his 4.11 ERA, along with a 33:6 K:BB ratio in 30.2 IP. He finally had a nice bounce back last week against Florida with three underwhelming starts at best before that. We can probably chalk the Auburn lineup getting shut down to this random Tyler Fay hot streak. But, usually these boys can bang. Bristol Carter is still leading the way (.388 avg, 1.007 OPS, 17 SB), but Brandon McCraine, Chris Rembert, and Chase Fralick are right there with him. It's fair to say we haven't seen the Tigers lineup hit their ceiling yet, but they're still dangerous.
With Bama riding a four-game win streak in conference play and at a big +120 home dog price, it's hard to not take them in this one. In fact, I wouldn't blame you if you did. The thing is, most of the time, good teams rebound after getting the brakes beat off them. And not only is Auburn a good team, but I think if they lose this one, they're getting swept. So, if they do get one, it would be this Saturday game.
The Pick: Auburn ML (-154 DraftKings)
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