This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article 1-5-1 -4.90
Season 46-48-1 +11.07
Houston Astros 
at Washington Nationals 
7:05 pm EDT
Framber Valdez vs. Josiah Gray
The Nationals are 1-10 in their last 11 games at home and the Astros are on a 10-game winning streak. They are also 13-2 in their last 15 games with a run differential of 4.7 – 1.8 (2.9). The Nationals have been terrible at home with a 4-13 record and scoring 42 runs in 17 games for a 2.47 average. Gray has three home starts with a 5.40 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.
MLB Best Bet #1 for Nationals-Astros: Nationals under 3.5 runs for 1.18 RW buck (FanDuel -118)
MLB Best Bet #2 for Nationals-Astros: Astros -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +115)
Baltimore Orioles 
at Detroit Tigers 
7:10 pm EDT
Jordan Lyles vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
I would feel better about this one if it was in Baltimore, but the Tigers' offense is one of the worst in baseball and they have only scored 3 runs in seven out of 32 games.
MLB Best Bet for Orioles-Tigers: Tigers under 4 runs for 1.08 RW buck (FanDuel -108)
Seattle Mariners 
at New York Mets 
7:10 pm EDT
Marco Gonzales vs. Max Scherzer
I have been on the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets run lines so far this year, and I love getting a huge edge in the starting pitching matchup with an elite arm like Scherzer. Gonzales has been one of the worst F5 pitchers (-$409) while the Mets have been the most profitable (+$595). The Mariners have hit the skids in their last 15 games with a 3-12 record.
MLB Best Bet for Mariners-Mets: Mets -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +100)
Kansas City Royals 
vs. Colorado Rockies 
8:40 pm EDT
Zack Greinke vs. Kyle Freeland
The Royals are one of the worst teams in baseball and Greinke can't strike anyone out these days. The Rockies' huge run differential at home is something I will continue to bet on especially against a weak offensive team with terrible pitching. The Rockies average 5.8 runs per game at home and the total is 5.5. A great time to bet the Rockies is when they are coming off a road trip preferably having lost and not scoring as you get value from the oddsmakers.
From a statistical perspective, the Rockies are 7-3 as home favorites in their last 10. The Royals are just 3-13 as road underdogs in their last 16.
MLB Best Bet #1 for Royals-Rockies – Rockies -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (BetMGM +135)
MLB Best Bet #2 for Royals-Rockies – Rockies over 5.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +105)
Philadelphia Phillies 
vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 
10:10 pm EDT
Kyle Gibson vs. Clayton Kershaw
The Dodgers are 10-3 at home against the run line and we get a significant edge in starting pitching matchups. They have allowed just 1.0 runs in the first five innings at home. Kershaw has been lights out this year going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. The Dodgers are 26-4 straight up the last 30 starts and 12-1 L13 in which Kershaw has been a home favorite of -200 or greater. There is not much to go by on the Phillies' side, everything just leans heavily towards the Dodgers in this spot.
MLB Best Bet #1 for Phillies-Dodgers: Kershaw under 1.5 earned runs for 1 RW buck (BetMGM +110)
MLB Best Bet #2 for Phillies-Dodgers: Dodgers -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (BetMGM -105)
MLB Parlay Pick #1: FOUR-TEAM PARLAY – Dodgers -1.5, Rockies -1.5, Mets -1.5, Astros (FanDuel) 0.1 RW buck to win 12.9
MLB Parlay Pick #2: THREE-TEAM PARLAY – Nationals u3.5, Rockies o5.5, Tigers u4 runs (FanDuel) 0.1 RW buck to win 6.3
Before you place your bets, be sure to use all of RotoWire's MLB resources, like our MLB Lineups page, MLB Weather page, and the best batter vs. pitcher stats.
