NFL Across Borders: Analyzing the Impact of International Games on Players and Scores

Last week's matchup between the Colts and Panthers in Frankfurt, Germany was the fifth and final international game of the 2023 NFL season, and the 50th international regular-season matchup in NFL history. Below, we'll analyze all the international matchups to see how travel, international fans and other factors affect scores and outcomes. 

The 50 international non-exhibition NFL games to date break down into 36 United Kingdom matchups, six in Canada, five in Mexico and three in Germany. Since games in Canada or Mexico aren't all that different from traveling to Buffalo or Los Angeles, those won't be included in this analysis. That leaves us with 39 European clashes dating back to the Giants' 13-10 win over the Dolphins at Wembley Stadium in 2007.

Let's take a look at some stats and other takeaways from the previous international matchups, including how teams with better records coming into their international clashes fared, and the scoring totals in Europe compared to average NFL games that year. Scroll down further for a complete list of previous games, each team's records heading into those games and the final scores.

Statistical Breakdown

Among the 39 international games, 31 have featured one team with a better record than the other. Teams with a better record are 19-11-1 overall, but just 10-8-1 since 2016.  

The team with the most overseas experience is Jacksonville, as the Jaguars have played in London 11 times. The Jaguars are 6-5 in those games, and all six wins have come as the team with the worse record entering play. In international games excluding the Jaguars, teams with a better record coming in are 16-5-1. 

You can't chalk up Jacksonville's overseas success to being from Florida, as the Dolphins are 1-5 in Europe and the Buccaneers are 1-3. Still, lower travel time may provide a slight edge. Teams from the Northeastern states of New York, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania -- the Giants, Jets, Bills, Patriots, Eagles and Steelers -- are a combined 7-5 in Europe, with a pair of Bills-Jaguars matchups accounting for half of those losses. The teams with the longest journeys to Europe haven't seemed to mind, though. Teams near the West Coast -- the Cardinals, Chargers, Raiders, Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers -- have gone 5-4 in European games against teams outside of this subset, excluding the Rams' 2012 loss to the Patriots when the Rams still represented St. Louis.

Individual years may not offer representative data, but a 39-game sample is more robust, and over the entirety of international football in Europe, teams have averaged 22.0 PPG compared to 22.4 PPG in the NFL as a whole over that span, so traveling internationally has a slight negative effect on offense. The overall NFL sample excludes the year 2020, which had no international games and also saw a record-high average of 24.8 PPG per team.

Other Takeaways

The first two NFL games in Germany were won by Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, so last Sunday's QB matchup between Mac Jones and Gardner Minshew looked almost unrecognizable given the quality of quarterback play German fans have experienced up to this point. 

When the NFL goes to Europe, it rarely sends its best. The Chiefs-Dolphins game was only the second out of 39 NFL games in Europe that featured two teams with a record better than .500. The other such game was the Giants' win over the Packers last year. The league determines which teams will travel internationally when it makes its schedule before the start of the season, but with so few marquee matchups over the years, it's hard not to suspect that the league was loath to send top teams to play overseas until very recently. 

Conclusions

Based on the 39-game sample of NFL games in Europe to date, here are the top takeaways for sports bettors and fantasy football players.

• Take the under: scoring in European games has been slightly lower than the league average over the same span.
• The better team generally wins, unless Jacksonville's involved: teams with better records are 16-5-1 outright in European games that don't involve the Jaguars, which presumably correlates to betting favorites usually winning.

Every NFL European Game, Records and Results

2007

Giants (5-2) def. Dolphins (0-7) 13-10

2008

Saints (3-4) def. Chargers (3-4) 37-32

2009

Patriots (4-2) def. Buccaneers (0-6) 35-7

2010

49ers (1-6) def. Broncos (2-5) 24-16

2011

Bears (3-3) def. Buccaneers (4-2) 24-18

2012

Patriots (4-3) def. Rams (3-4) 45-7

2013

Vikings (0-3) def. Steelers (0-3) 34-27

49ers (5-2) def. Jaguars (0-7) 42-10

2014

Dolphins (1-2) def. Raiders (0-3) 38-14

Lions (5-2) def. Falcons (2-5) 22-21

Cowboys (6-3) def. Jaguars (1-8) 31-17

2015

Jets (2-1) def. Dolphins (1-2) 27-14

Jaguars (1-5) def. Bills (3-3) 34-31

Chiefs (2-5) def. Lions (1-6) 45-10

2016

Jaguars (0-3) def. Colts (1-2) 30-27

Giants (3-3) def. Rams (3-3) 17-10

Redskins (4-3) and Bengals (3-4) tie 27-27

2017

Jaguars (1-1) def. Ravens (2-0) 44-7

Saints (1-2) def. Dolphins (1-1) 20-0

Rams (4-2) def. Cardinals (3-3) 33-0

Vikings (5-2) def. Browns (0-7) 33-16

2018

Seahawks (2-3) def. Raiders (1-4) 27-3

Chargers (4-2) def. Titans (3-3) 20-19

Eagles (3-4) def. Jaguars (3-4) 24-18

2019

Raiders (2-2) def. Bears (3-1) 24-21

Panthers (3-2) def. Buccaneers (2-3) 37-26

Rams (4-3) def. Bengals (0-7) 24-10

Texans (5-3) def. Jaguars (4-4) 26-3

2020

No International Games

2021

Falcons (1-3) def. Jets (1-3) 27-20

Jaguars (0-5) def. Dolphins (1-4) 23-20

2022

Vikings (2-1) def. Saints (1-2) 28-25

Giants (3-1) def. Packers (3-1) 27-22

Broncos (2-5) def. Jaguars (2-5) 21-17

*Buccaneers (4-5) def. Seahawks (6-3) 21-16

2023

Jaguars (1-2) def. Falcons (2-1) 23-7

Jaguars (2-2) def. Bills (3-1) 25-20

Ravens (3-2) def. Titans (2-3) 24-16

*Chiefs (6-2) def. Dolphins (6-2) 21-14

*Colts (4-5) def. Patriots (2-7) 10-6

*=Game in Germany; all other games in United Kingdom