This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Wednesday at the clay-court Madrid Open will primarily feature early-round men's action, but there are also a couple of women's quarterfinals on the docket, as the WTA 1000 event is further along than the men's ATP Masters 1000 draw. A men's match between two household names on tour could wind up with the underdog coming out on top, while one of the top clay-court players in recent WTA history is poised to add to an impressive run in this tournament. All match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
The staggered nature of the men's and women's draws make this an interesting tournament to bet on, as we're entering the latter stages of the women's tournament while the men have shown us a much smaller sample size. Using players' results thus far in this tournament coupled with their recent form coming in and historical results can help pinpoint some betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Grigor Dimitrov (+155) vs. Diego Schwartzman
Dimitrov's a nice underdog play here, as it wouldn't be all that surprising to see him win this one. Despite clay generally being his least favorite surface, Dimitrov has shown he's capable of producing decent results on the slow stuff. He made the Monte Carlo semifinals last month before being done in by a tough early draw in Barcelona, where he lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas. Dimitrov also has a winning record against Schwartzman at 2-1, which is a remarkably small amount of clashes between two guys who have both spent the bulk of the past five years ranked inside the top 30.
Honorable Mention:
Cristian Garin (+200) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Value Bet
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-165) vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Davidovich Fokina will be the far fresher player here, as he beat Lloyd Harris 7-5, 6-3 on Monday while Hurkacz was pushed to the limit in Tuesday's 7-5, 6-7 (11), 6-3 win over Hugo Dellien. The Spaniard reached the final at the Monte Carlo Masters earlier in the clay court season, while Hurkacz lost in the quarterfinals of that tournament, and clay is generally Davidovich Fokina's favorite surface and Hurkacz's least favorite. Despite all three of their previous meetings coming on hard courts, Davidovich Fokina leads 2-1 head-to-head, so this particular matchup is a favorable one for him despite Hurkacz's superior ranking.
Honorable Mention:
John Isner (+115) vs. Cameron Norrie
Lock It In
Roberto Bautista Agut (-300) vs. Daniel Evans
Evans' first-round win over Federico Delbonis was just his third victory in his last 11 matches and second win in six tries on clay. Meanwhile, Bautista Agut has been one of the most consistent performers on tour this season. RBA is 17-6 overall, and he improved to 3-0 in clay with a convincing 6-0, 6-2 first-round win over Jenson Brooksby, avenging a loss to Brooksby in Miami. Anything other than a straightforward result in the Spaniard's favor would be surprising here.
Simona Halep (-205) vs. Ons Jabeur
Halep's probably the second-best clay-court player on the WTA Tour behind Iga Swiatek, having won the French Open once and reached the final on two other occasions. She has looked completely locked in for her first clay-court action of 2022, winning her first three matches without dropping a set, including a 6-3, 6-1 smack down of No. 2 seed Paula Badosa. The eighth-seeded Jabeur's a fine all-court player, but Halep has been the far superior performer so far in this tournament. The Romanian also leads their head-to-head 2-1, all on hard courts, with Jabeur's lone victory coming courtesy of a Halep retirement.
Honorable Mention:
Alexander Zverev (-575) vs. Marin Cilic
