The third WTA 1000 event of 2026 begins Wednesday, March 4 from the hard courts of Indian Wells, California. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina are the top favorites in a deep field full of players with a realistic chance of winning this title, including world No. 2 Iga Swiatek, as well as American hopefuls Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff and Amanda Anisimova. The top 32 seeds all have byes into the second round of the 96-player draw at Indian Wells.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at Indian Wells, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. Marketa Vondrousova (shoulder), Barbora Krejcikova (thigh), Daria Kasatkina (hip), Karolina Pliskova (knee) and Veronika Kudermetova (undisclosed) will miss the tournament due to injuries, while Danielle Collins and Ons Jabeur (maternity) also aren't among the entrants at Indian Wells.
After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Indian Wells Open WTA Picks
The Favorite for the 2026 Indian Wells Open
Aryna Sabalenka (+275) - Sabalenka's a clear underdog against the field, but she has the best title odds of any individual participant and looks like a nice value bet given her hard-court pedigree. The top-seeded Belarusian has played in the final of each of the last seven hard-court Grand Slams and she has reached the final of Indian Wells in two of the last three years, though this title has eluded her up to this point. After what
The third WTA 1000 event of 2026 begins Wednesday, March 4 from the hard courts of Indian Wells, California. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina are the top favorites in a deep field full of players with a realistic chance of winning this title, including world No. 2 Iga Swiatek, as well as American hopefuls Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff and Amanda Anisimova. The top 32 seeds all have byes into the second round of the 96-player draw at Indian Wells.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at Indian Wells, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. Marketa Vondrousova (shoulder), Barbora Krejcikova (thigh), Daria Kasatkina (hip), Karolina Pliskova (knee) and Veronika Kudermetova (undisclosed) will miss the tournament due to injuries, while Danielle Collins and Ons Jabeur (maternity) also aren't among the entrants at Indian Wells.
After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Indian Wells Open WTA Picks
The Favorite for the 2026 Indian Wells Open
Aryna Sabalenka (+275) - Sabalenka's a clear underdog against the field, but she has the best title odds of any individual participant and looks like a nice value bet given her hard-court pedigree. The top-seeded Belarusian has played in the final of each of the last seven hard-court Grand Slams and she has reached the final of Indian Wells in two of the last three years, though this title has eluded her up to this point. After what should be smooth sailing into the Round of 16, Sabalenka could face a tough fourth-round matchup against either Naomi Osaka or Iva Jovic, then take on either Anisimova or Victoria Mboko in the quarterfinals. Gauff is her chalk semifinal opponent, while Swiatek, Pegula, Rybakina and defending champion Mirra Andreeva -- who defeated Sabalenka in last year's final -- all landed in the other half of the draw. This will be Sabalenka's first tournament action since her loss to Rybakina in the Australian Open final.
In the Mix for the 2026 Indian Wells Open
Elena Rybakina (+550) - Rybakina won her second career Grand Slam title at the Australian Open but has gone just 3-2 since and retired in the third set of her last match in Dubai against Antonia Ruzic due to fatigue. Ailments and retirements have held Rybakina back at times over the past few years, even though she's among the WTA Tour's elites when she's firing on all cylinders. The 2023 Indian Wells champion is seeded third here this year, with Marta Kostyuk, Madison Keys and Pegula as Rybakina's chalk opponents in the third round through quarterfinals. If Rybakina can reprise her Australian Open form, her big serve and powerful groundstrokes can help her navigate this difficult draw and set up a potential semifinal against Swiatek.
Iga Swiatek (+700) - Swiatek's at her best in slow conditions, and Indian Wells has some of the slowest hard courts on the pro circuit, so it's no surprise that Iga's a multi-time champion at this tournament, having won in both 2022 and 2024. At slightly longer odds than Rybakina's, this is a nice buy-low opportunity on Swiatek after the six-time Grand Slam champion started her season with quarterfinal exits at both the Australian Open and Doha. The No. 2 seed could face some early tests, including a third-round rematch against Maria Sakkari, who just beat Swiatek in Doha. Karolina Muchova or Qinwen Zheng would present a test in the fourth round, followed by Andreeva or Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinals before a possible semifinal against Rybakina, who has an even 6-6 record against Swiatek in their careers.
Jessica Pegula (+1000) - Pegula has been in peak form to begin 2026, reaching the semifinals of the Australian Open before taking advantage of a depleted Dubai field without Sabalenka or Swiatek to win her fourth career WTA 1000 title. The 32-year-old American plays her best tennis on hard courts, but Pegula prefers conditions faster than those at Indian Wells, where she's just 8-7 in her career. The No. 5 seed has a pretty difficult draw here, too, with Jelena Ostapenko and Belinda Bencic as potential opponents in the third and fourth rounds before a possible quarterfinal matchup against Rybakina, who is the only player with a win over Pegula on the young season. Pegula tends to come up short against the cream of the crop, so she's unlikely to get through Rybakina, Swiatek and Sabalenka consecutively from the quarterfinals onward unless some upsets soften that path.
Coco Gauff (+1200) - Gauff has reached the semifinals only once in five tries at Indian Wells, which is surprising since the slow hard courts here should fit her game well given her defensive skills. The No. 4 seed has been battling some serving issues during a pedestrian start to 2026, in which she has sandwiched a pair of losses to Svitolina around an early exit in Doha at the hands of Elisabetta Cocciaretto. Gauff will have the American crowd in her corner, though, and the top-ranked player on her path to the semifinals is rapidly regressing No. 7 seed Jasmine Paolini, so Gauff has the potential to get back on track here. Alexandra Eala and Linda Noskova are her chalk opponents for the third and fourth rounds.
Amanda Anisimova (+1600), Mirra Andreeva (+1600), Karolina Muchova (+1600), Elina Svitolina (+2500) and Victoria Mboko (+2500) are the remaining top contenders for the Indian Wells title. Anisimova has sandwiched a pair of losses to Pegula around an early Doha loss to Karolina Pliskova in a match that Anisimova didn't finish. The 2025 Wimbledon and U.S. Open runner-up will be happy to land in the opposite half of the draw from Pegula, though the sixth-seeded Anisimova could face Mboko in the Round of 16 and Sabalenka in the quarterfinals. Andreeva is the defending champion here, but she's in far worse form in 2026 compared to this time last year, when she was riding high off a WTA 1000 title in Dubai. The 18-year-old Russian is just 3-3 in her last six matches, with losses to Svitolina, Mboko and Anisimova. Those are all "quality losses" but the No. 8 seed seems to lack confidence against top players at the moment and could face Svitolina in the Round of 16 before taking on Swiatek in the QFs.
Muchova won a WTA 1000 title in Doha, and the crafty Czech is one of the toughest outs on the WTA Tour when healthy but has a brutal potential draw against Zheng in the third round and Swiatek in the Round of 16. Svitolina has been among the WTA Tour's top performers in 2026 with a 15-3 record, including a Grand Slam semifinal showing at the Australian Open and a WTA 1000 runner-up finish in Dubai. Just missing out on a top-eight seed hurts the 31-year-old Ukrainian's title chances here, though, as she could face Andreeva, Swiatek, Rybakina and Sabalenka consecutively. Possible third-round opponent Liudmila Samsonova is also no slouch. The Mboko hype train is quickly gaining steam, as the 19-year-old Canadian has broken into the top 10 after a strong start to 2026 in which the ascendant teenager has emulated the results of her country's Olympic hockey teams with runner-up finishes at both Adelaide and Doha. Her elite athleticism should translate well to the slow hard-court conditions at Indian Wells, and Mboko could face the big-hitting Anisimova in a fascinating clash of styles in the Round of 16 before possibly getting another shot at Sabalenka, who knocked Mboko out of the Australian Open.
Sleepers for the 2026 Indian Wells Open
Naomi Osaka (+4000) - This will be Osaka's first tournament back from an abdominal injury that prevented her from playing after two matches at the Australian Open. The 2025 U.S. Open semifinalist is one of the best hard-court players on the WTA Tour when she's firing on all cylinders, and she seemed to get her mojo back after a coaching change in the second half of last year. The four-time Grand Slam champion surprisingly has only two career WTA 1000 titles, but one of those came at Indian Wells in 2018. She's 1-0 in her career against Sabalenka, whom the 16th-seeded Osaka could face in the Round of 16.
Qinwen Zheng (+6500) - Zheng missed the U.S. Open and Australian Open due to an elbow injury, but she was ranked as high as No. 4 in the world in June of 2025, so her No. 24 seeding here doesn't do Zheng's ability justice. She looked impressive in her first post-injury action in Doha, taking Rybakina to 7-5 in the third set after winning a pair of matches. The buy-low window on Zheng may remain open a while longer, though, as she'll have to navigate a tough draw, with Muchova in the third round and Swiatek in the Round of 16, not to mention the returning Jennifer Brady as a potential second-round foe.
Maria Sakkari (+15000) - When Sakkari faced Swiatek in the final here in 2022, the No. 2 ranking was on the line. Swiatek won that match and became world No. 1 shortly afterward as Ashleigh Barty announced her retirement. That moment was a launchpad for Swiatek's success but represented the peak for Sakkari, whose top highlight since then was another Indian Wells runner-up finish to Swiatek in 2024. Sakkari exacted a modicum of revenge with her recent win over Swiatek in Doha, and beating Swiatek in the third round here would have to feel sweet for the No. 32 seed. Given Sakkari's history of success at this tournament and renewed confidence, the former world No. 3 has some deep sleeper potential.
Indian Wells Open Prediction
Chalk rarely holds up on the WTA Tour, but this tournament could be an exception, as I'm picking the top two seeds Sabalenka and Swiatek to meet in the finals. Sabalenka's consistently in the mix at the biggest events, especially on hard courts, while Swiatek has won this title in two of the previous four years. Conventional wisdom would say to pick Swiatek in the championship match given her 25-5 career record in WTA Tour finals, including 11-2 in WTA 1000 events, but I'm picking Aryna Sabalenka to buck that trend and take home her 10th career WTA 1000 title.
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