The first round of Indian Wells continues Thursday from the hard courts of Indian Wells, California. The 32 seeds in the men's and women's draws have byes into the second round, but there are still plenty of big names in action, including a few prominent American underdogs looking to pull off upset on the women's side.
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All men's and women's singles matches at Indian Wells are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Sofia Kenin (+226) vs. Katerina Siniakova
Kenin has lost six consecutive matches since winning her first match of 2026, but the 45th-ranked American has been dealt some tough draws, with five of those losses coming against opponents ranked in the top 32. Siniakova is ranked just one spot ahead of Kenin in singles at No. 44 and has a 4-5 record in 2026. The Czech doubles specialist is adept at getting forward, but Kenin's superior power should allow the American to dictate play. Kenin has a far higher ceiling as a singles player than Siniakova, and having the crowd in Kenin's corner won't hurt, so this is a nice get-right opportunity for the slumping Kenin.
Jennifer Brady (+144) vs. Antonia Ruzic
Brady is set to appear in her first WTA 1000 event since 2023, as the 2021 Australian Open finalist has finally worked her way back from numerous knee injuries at age 30. Her power from the baseline made Brady one of the top hard-court performers on the WTA Tour in her prime. While she's unlikely to make a deep run in what is only her third tournament since returning, Brady has at least had a chance to shake off the rust and is certainly capable of winning one match. The 57th-ranked Ruzic is 6-7 this year, with four losses against players ranked outside the top 100, so she isn't exactly a high-floor player.
Honorable Mention
Venus Williams (+278) vs. Diane Parry
Indian Wells Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Alex Michelsen (-277) vs. Daniel Merida
The 139th-ranked Merida has been grinding on the Challenger Tour, and the 21-year-old Spaniard will likely just be happy to be playing in his first career ATP main-draw match after winning a pair of tightly contested matches in qualifying. Michelsen has accomplished a lot more at age 21 and should have far loftier aspirations for this tournament. The 44th-ranked American has been ranked as high as No. 30, and he has a 53-48 career record on his favorite hard-court surface. Michelsen reached at least the third round of three hard-court Masters 1000 events last year, including Indian Wells.
Botic van de Zandschulp (-234) vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Juan Manuel is a far less accomplished player than his brother Francisco Cerundolo, especially on hard courts, where the former has just a 7-12 career record. Most of J.M. Cerundolo's ranking points come from his results on clay, and the 24-year-old has never won a main-draw match at Indian Wells. Van de Zandschulp has a much more impressive hard-court resume, as the 2021 U.S. Open quarterfinalist upset Novak Djokovic en route to the third round of Indian Wells last year, and the Dutchman had a solid third-round result at this year's Australian Open. The gap between them on this surface is a lot larger than van de Zandschulp's 11-spot edge in the rankings.
Honorable Mention
Hailey Baptiste (-314) vs. Emiliana Arango
Indian Wells Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Nuno Borges (-167) vs. Emilio Nava
Borges is a rock-solid player with an all-court game that usually helps him navigate the early rounds effectively. He hasn't lost in the first round of a Grand Slam since Wimbledon of 2024, making at least the third round in all but one major since then. He has a 26-spot edge in the rankings over the 75th-ranked Nava, who gets most of his ranking points on clay. Nava's just 9-20 in ATP Tour-level hard-court matches, where opponents have often been able to overpower him. The California native will certainly have the crowd in his corner, but that likely won't be enough to bridge the gap against Borges.
Laura Siegemund (+101) vs. Petra Marcinko
Siegemund has played some surprisingly effective tennis since the second half of last year, reaching the quarterfinals of Wimbledon and the Wuhan Open, as well as the third round of both the U.S. Open and Canadian Open. The 38-year-old German knocked off No. 18 seed Liudmila Samsonova at this year's Australian Open and has climbed to 55th in the rankings. That's 17 spots ahead of Marcinko, who comes into this tournament on a four-match losing streak during which the 20-year-old Croatian has won only one set. The crafty Siegemund is likely to frustrate her inexperienced opponent with spins and slices, and Marcinko's poor recent form suggests she may not have the confidence to know exactly when to pull the trigger in rallies.
Honorable Mention
Grigor Dimitrov (-163) vs. Terence Atmane
