Both French Open men's semifinals will be played Friday on the red clay courts of Roland Garros in Paris, France. Alexander Zverev is two wins away from ridding himself of the dubious distinction of being the most accomplished ATP player ever without a Grand Slam title, and he's joined by three surprise semifinalists Friday, including a pair of Italians who are set to go head-to-head in the biggest match of their careers.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Friday's men's semifinal matches.
French Open Tennis Picks: Zverev vs. Mensik
Alexander Zverev (-399) vs. Jakub Mensik (+303)
The 26th-seeded Mensik will be Zverev's highest-ranked opponent yet, but the No. 2 seed deserves credit for taking care of business while all the other top contenders around him crumbled. Zverev did what you're supposed to do when the draw opens up, dropping just one set en route to the semifinals. He had no trouble handling the moment in the quarterfinals against 19-year-old Rafael Jodar, cruising to a straight-set victory after a tight first set, as the talented Spaniard seemed to run out of gas following his grueling run to the quarterfinals. Zverev infamously has yet to break through and win a Grand Slam, but this will be his 11th major semifinal. His 3-7 record in such matches leaves a lot to be desired, though Zverev has won two of the last three and gave eventual Australian Open champion Carlos Alcaraz (wrist) all the Spaniard could handle in this year's semifinal clash down under. Zverev defeated Mensik, 6-4, 6-7 (4), 6-3 on clay in Madrid last month in the first head-to-head meeting between these two nimble big servers.
Mensik is one of the most talented young players on the ATP Tour, which he proved by winning a Masters 1000 title at the Miami Open last year and is demonstrating again here. The 20-year-old Czech had some issues maintaining his focus and fitness in best-of-five set matches earlier in his career, as he was leading two sets to one in six of his last seven Grand Slam losses, but Mensik has a perfect 8-0 record in Grand Slam matches this year. He withdrew from the Australian Open due to an injury after winning three matches and has added five wins here, most recently ending 19-year-old Joao Fonseca's breakout run in straight sets after surviving two five-setters in the first four rounds. The 6-foot-5 Mensik and 6-foot-6 Zverev are two of the best movers on the ATP Tour for their size, so both are comfortable playing extended rallies and covering the court when they aren't winning quick points with their booming serves. Zverev is rightfully favored, but Mensik is the more appealing value bet as the underdog in a match that may come down to a few key conversion opportunities on rare break points.
French Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Zverev def. Mensik 6-3, 6-7, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
French Open Tennis Picks: Cobolli vs. Arnaldi
Flavio Cobolli (-269) vs. Matteo Arnaldi (+213)
To underscore just how improbable this matchup is, these two Italian compatriots faced off in the second round of the French Open last year and easily could have been matched up in the first couple rounds again this year given Arnaldi's No. 104 ranking. Cobolli won last year's Roland Garros clash in four sets, avenging Arnaldi's clay-court victory in Umag in 2023. They also played three times in non-Tour level events while working their way up the rankings, and Arnaldi took two of those three clay-court encounters. The 24-year-old Cobolli took a while to break out but has established himself firmly within the top 15 at this stage of his career, reaching the quarterfinals of Wimbledon last year on the Grand Slam stage and making a clay-court Masters 1000 quarterfinal in Madrid before taking the next step here thanks to a four-set quarterfinal win over No. 4 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Arnaldi got a much-needed physical reprieve in the quarterfinals, as fellow Italian Matteo Berrettini had to retire in the second set due to a hip injury. Prior to that point, Arnaldi had set a record for the most time spent on court to reach a Grand Slam quarterfinal, battling through two tight four-setters in the first two rounds before being pushed to five sets in the third and fourth rounds. Arnaldi's fitness is undeniable, but he lacks Cobolli's firepower off the ground. The 25-year-old Arnaldi had spent a couple years in the top 50, peaking at 30th in the rankings in 2024, before going through a lull that dropped him outside the top 100. He has regained confidence with a 12-1 record in his last 13 matches, starting with a Challenger-level title in Italy. Arnaldi has managed to outlast opponents during his unlikely run to the semifinals here, but the talent gap between him and the 10th-seeded Cobolli will be tough to overcome.
French Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Cobolli def. Arnaldi 6-4, 5-7, 6-2, 6-4
