This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The quarterfinal round of the French Open produced something of an unexpected result in the Women's draw, as Beatriz Haddad Maia showed she was no worse for the wear after a pair of grueling matches, triumphing over the seventh-seeded Ons Jabeur in a decisive 6-1 final set. Elsewhere, Iga Swiatek continued her march toward a second consecutive title in Paris, taking out last year's second-place finisher Coco Gauff in two routine sets. The last semifinal spot went to Casper Ruud, who easily sent away a clearly exhausted Holger Rune in four frames. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but prospective bettors should feel free to search for the best lines available for these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites.
As a reminder, the men play best-of-five-set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. As we've now reached the semifinal round, match analysis will be based almost exclusively on performance in previous rounds of this tournament, with nods to head-to-head records between competitors where appropriate.
French Open Odds: Sabalenka vs. Muchova
Aryna Sabalenka (-310) vs. Karolina Muchova (+245)
As quickly as the erratic version of Sabalenka seemed to reemerge in her first set against Sloane Stephens, she disappeared again in the match against Elina Svitolina, which saw the Belarussian blast 30 winners in a straight-set victory. Sabalenka's power has carried her through her time at Roland Garros, as she has been able to hit through opponents with regularity, which has resulted in the Women's No. 2 advancing to the semifinal round without conceding a set. That's not to say that Muchova has been far behind in terms of results. The Czech player has dropped just one set in this tournament (a bagel) to Nadia Podoroska en route to the sixth round.
While the stats break down much like you would expect between a power player and someone who relies more on their movement, what most concerns me about Muchova in this matchup is her first serve percentage, which dipped to 57 percent in her last tilt against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Having to hit that many second serves seems like a recipe for a short day at the office against an in-form Sabalenka, who will constantly be looking to attack and hit winners. That leaves Muchova with little room to maneuver, as trying to hump up on the first serve will likely result in more double faults. If Muchova can't find her accuracy on serve quickly, Sabalenka could make this line look like a value opportunity.
French Open Prediction: Sabalenka def. Muchova 6-4, 6-2
French Open Odds: Swiatek vs. Haddad Maia
Iga Swiatek (-1800) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia (+900)
Haddad Maia made me look foolish for putting so much stock in her time spent on court ahead of her match with Ons Jabeur, but I feel compelled to mention it again, as the Brazilian has now spent nearly 13 hours on court at Roland Garros. This is in stark contrast to Swiatek, whose five and a half hours on court seems like a brisk walk by comparison. Haddad Maia should be commended for working as hard as she has to reach her first Major semifinal, but the stats of these competitors tend to correspond to the betting odds, as Swiatek has a 14 percent edge on second-serve points won (59 to 45) and has hit 12 fewer double faults while conceding 34 fewer break points.
All that being said, Haddad Maia notched a win over Swiatek on the hard courts of Toronto's National Bank Open in August, but there has been a clear difference in the level of these two competitors throughout this tournament, and grit alone won't be enough to tackle an in-form Swiatek looking to claim her third French Open title in the last four years. Unlike the men who played on Wednesday, Haddad Maia and Swiatek don't get a day off following their fifth-round matches, which will only put more strain on the Brazillian, who is almost certainly at her limit.
French Open Prediction: Swiatek def. Haddad Maia 6-3, 6-2
