This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first round of the US Open continues Tuesday at the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Queens, New York. A couple of prominent players coming back from injuries make for nice values at discounted odds here, while a top-10 men's seed is on upset alert against a player whom he lost to earlier this month. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Picks: Upset Alert
Emil Ruusuvuori (+240) vs. Andrey Rublev
Ruusuvuori just beat Rublev in Cincinnati a couple weeks ago, pulling out a highly competitive 7-6 (10), 5-7, 7-6 (3) victory. Rublev's a former finalist in Cincinnati, so Ruusuvuori should take plenty of confidence from that hard-court win into this rematch against the No. 8 seed. That loss was the third in a row for Rublev, and a dangerous first-round matchup against a fellow big hitter who just defeated him certainly isn't what the slumping Russian was hoping for here.
Daniel Elahi Galan (+230) vs. Daniel Evans
If Galan pulls this upset off, it will be much less memorable than his first-round win over Stefanos Tsitsipas at last year's US Open, during which Galan lost just one game over the first two sets. The Colombian went on to reach the third round, so he has proven capable of producing good tennis at this venue. Evans won a title in Washington just under a month ago, but he has lost both of his matches since, and the 33-year-old Brit's record in 2023 outside of that one title run is a dreadful 8-20. Given the state of Evans' game, he shouldn't be comfortably favored against anybody.
Honorable Mention
Ashlyn Krueger (+220) vs. Marie Bouzkova
US Open Odds: Lock It In
Max Purcell (-235) vs. Christopher O'Connell
Only 26 ranking spots separate these two Australian countrymen, but the gap in their recent results has been much larger. Including qualifying, the 43rd-ranked Purcell just went 8-2 across the Masters 1000 events in Toronto and Cincinnati, then added three more victories in Winston Salem this past week. At the two Masters events, he notched top-20 wins over Felix Auger-Aliassime and Casper Ruud, while his losses were 7-5 in the third set to Andy Murray and 6-4 in the third to world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz. The 69th-ranked O'Connell lost in qualifying for both those events and enters the US Open with a 1-5 record in his last six matches.
Qinwen Zheng (-390) vs. Nadia Podoroska
Zheng is one of the most talented young players on the WTA Tour, as she's already up to No. 23 in the world at just 20 years of age. She possesses significantly more power than Podoroska, whose best results have come on clay. Podoroska is just 1-4 against top-100 players on hard courts in 2023, with the win coming against 90th-ranked Clara Tauson. At The US Open, Podoroska hasn't won a main draw match in three previous appearances, while Zheng reached the third round in her debut appearance last year.
Honorable Mention
Linda Noskova (-265) vs. Madison Brengle
US Open Predictions: Value Bets
Karen Khachanov (-170) vs. Michael Mmoh
Khachanov hasn't played since the French Open due to a stress fracture in his back, but if he's healthy enough to take the court, the No. 11 seed shouldn't have too many problems winning this match against the 89th-ranked Mmoh. Khachanov reached the semifinals here last year, then followed that up with a semifinal showing at the Australian Open and quarterfinals at the French Open. His measured game style makes Khachanov less timing-dependent than some higher-risk bigger hitters who would be more negatively impacted by a long layoff, and the Russian's fitness makes him especially effective in best-of-five set play, while Mmoh is just 6-13 in best-of-five Grand Slam matches.
Sofia Kenin (-165) vs. Ana Bogdan
The last time we saw Kenin, she was producing tennis not too far removed from the quality that helped her capture the Australian Open title in 2020. The 24-year-old American beat compatriot Coco Gauff at Wimbledon before losing in the third round to eventual semifinalist Elina Svitolina. Unfortunately, Kenin hasn't played a match since due to a thigh injury. Despite being ranked 41 spots back of her 60th-ranked opponent, Kenin is capable of producing far superior tennis than Bogdan, so she should be able to shake off the rust and get through against a player with a 13-22 career record at Grand Slams.
Honorable Mention
Jason Kubler (-110) vs. Matteo Arnaldi
