This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Men's and women's semifinals at the Canadian Open are on the docket Saturday. The top half of both draws features a match that will likely produce Sunday's title favorite, while the bottom halves involve players that were unlikely to make it this far, including three unseeded players. The lone American remaining on either side will need to pull off an upset to keep her run going, while the highest-seeded player left in either draw is in a tossup against a player he defeated in their only previous encounter. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars.
All the matches at this ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 hard-court event are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Jessica Pegula (+190) vs. Simona Halep
Halep's the rightful favorite in this match, but Pegula's +190 odds are selling her chances short. The hard courts in both Toronto and Montreal seem to be playing on the slow side this year, which fits into both of these players' consistent styles. While Halep is the more accomplished player in her career and has yet to drop a set in this tournament, Pegula has been better over the past 12 months, which is why she's ranked eight spots ahead of Halep at No. 7. Halep had some serving problems creep up with eight double faults in two sets against Coco Gauff last match, and Pegula won't donate as many unforced errors in big moments as Gauff did Friday.
Lock It In
Pablo Carreno Busta (-235) vs. Daniel Evans
Evans has surprised us with a few improbable upsets this week, but his run's likely to come to an end against the red-hot Carreno Busta. The 23rd-ranked Spaniard has thrived as both a favorite and an underdog in this tournament, upsetting a pair of top-15 players in Matteo Berrettini and Jannik Sinner while also holding off up-and-comers Holger Rune and Jack Draper, all without dropping a set. In addition to being ranked 16 spots ahead of Evans, Carreno Busta has significantly more experience in the latter stage of big tournaments as a two-time US Open semifinalist.
Value Bet
Karolina Pliskova (-125) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
Haddad Maia has notched some fantastic wins here, but this is uncharted territory for the Brazilian lefty, so she's likely to feel some nerves in her first semifinal in a tournament of this magnitude. Meanwhile, Pliskova has been a top-10 mainstay the last few years and has finally regained form after a hand injury delayed her start to the 2022 season and subsequently affected her results for much of the year. They have split two previous meetings, but this will be the big-serving Czech's match to lose.
Casper Ruud (-105) vs. Hubert Hurkacz
The slower conditions have benefited Ruud this week, and he proved Friday that he can neutralize a big server here, dismantling Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-1, 6-2. The fourth-seeded Norwegian admittedly got plenty of help from his opponent in that one, but Ruud deserves credit for keeping his foot on the gas while FAA imploded. Hurkacz has needed three sets to get through each of his three matches this week, including saving a match point against Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Ruud's able to execute a grinding baseline game similar to Ramos-Vinolas' at a much higher level. Ruud won their only previous meeting in four sets at this year's French Open, and while this court isn't playing as slowly as the French Open clay, the conditions should still play in Ruud's favor.
