The USMNT will make their 2026 FIFA World Cup debut Friday against one of the strongest defenses in the CONMEBOL region, Paraguay. It will be a strong test for manager Mauricio Pochettino's men, as the team will need to find solutions to score goals against a team that conceded just 10 goals in 18 matches during their qualifying path in South America.
Kickoff for USA vs Paraguay is slated for Friday, June 12 at 9 p.m. ET. Will the US open their campaign with a win, or will Los Guaranies pull the upset on American soil led by MLS star Miguel Almiron? Here are my three best bets for Friday's contest.
For predicted lineups and team news, see our USA vs Paraguay preview and our full 2026 World Cup coverage, including the Group D preview, predicted lineups and injury report.
USA vs Paraguay Picks & Odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| USMNT to win | -105 |
| Folarin Balogun anytime goalscorer | +225 |
| SGP: Under 2.5 goals and both teams don't score | -106 |
| Correct score prediction | USMNT 1-0 Paraguay |
USA vs. Paraguay Best Bets
USMNT to win -105
Paraguay have won three of their last four matches (L1), and on paper, their defensive prowess should be a tough matchup for a USMNT side that has been inconsistent with their play in the final third. However, the Stars and Stripes should enjoy massive support on the stands, and they'll look keep their streak of not losing the last three World Cup openers (W1, D2) alive here even if they've had bad results lately with three losses in their last four friendly matches (W1).
Even though manager Pochettino has been heavily criticized for some recent performances, the 2-1 loss to Germany was a step in the right direction, and that kind of display and intensity should complicate a Paraguay team that will probably rely on their defensive play to get a positive result here. Paraguay's best players are either out Julio Enciso (thigh) or in subpar form Miguel Almiron, so they shouldn't represent much of a threat in the final third. The hosts could also draw inspiration from their previous head-to-head meeting, in which the USMNT defeated Paraguay 2-1 last year.
Folarin Balogun to score anytime +225
The USMNT fought hard to convince Balogun to represent the team on the international stage, and for the most part, the AS Monaco star has delivered. Balogun averages 0.33 goals per match with the USMNT, scoring nine times in 27 appearances since making his debut in 2023. He posted strong numbers in the 2025/26 campaign as well after notching 19 goals in 43 domestic appearances across all competitions with Les Monegasques.
This game figures to be a closed-knit affair. Paraguay will drop deep and aim to exploit the counter, while the USMNT will probably monopolize the possession. Knowing that Paraguay's biggest strength is their defensive core, where names such as Omar Alderete, Gustavo Gomez and Andres Cubas stand out, the USMNT forwards might not have many chances to do damage. That's a scenario where Balogun, who lives and dies in tight spaces inside the box, should thrive. Look for the 24-year-old striker to find the back of the net in this World Cup opener.
SGP: Under 2.5 goals and both teams do not score -106
Our single-game parlay for this USMNT debut paints the picture of a tight contest, and that's mainly due to Paraguay's recent tendencies, as well as the Americans' inability to translate their dominance into goals. Even though seven of the USMNT's last eight games have seen both teams scoring, and six of those also having over 2.5 goals, this doesn't look like a game that could be high-scoring. It's hard to see the American squad breaking Paraguay's defense easily.
La Albirroja averaged 0.77 goals scored and 0.55 goals allowed per game in the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers in South America. Even though their friendly matches had far more goals, expect coach Gustavo Alfaro's men to deploy a more conservative, defense-first approach. Five of their last six competitive games, and eight of the last 12, have featured under 2.5 goals and both teams not scoring. With the USMNT struggling to break down tight defenses, a low-scoring game could be in order here.
USA vs. Paraguay Betting Picks
- USMNT to win: -105
- USA vs. Paraguay Anytime Goalscorer (Best Bet): Folarin Balogun to score anytime: +225
- USA vs. Paraguay SGP: Under 2.5 goals and both teams do not score: -106
Visit RotoWire's World Cup hub for more sports betting picks and daily betting articles. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. Claim over a thousand dollars in bonuses by signing up at the best sports betting sites using the best sportsbook promos.
