This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Manchester United look to build off their win over Arsenal in the FA Cup (and 2-2 draw at Liverpool last league match) when they host bottom-of-the-table Southampton at Old Trafford Thursday.
Manchester United have put together good back-to-back performances against Liverpool and Arsenal but are still bottom half of the table, sitting alone in 14th. Their last Premier League win was over a month ago against Manchester City, so three points is vital for them if they want to claw back into the top half.
Southampton are still at the bottom of the table and it doesn't look like they're getting out soon, eight points behind Leicester City (prior to Wednesday's matches). Ivan Juric hasn't really raised the level of performances, but they did get a nice 3-0 win against Swansea City in the FA Cup over the weekend.
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Premier League Best Bets for Manchester United vs. Southampton
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
The most important player for Manchester United is without a doubt Bruno Fernandes. He was pivotal in their last two matches and is the guy who is getting most of the production in the final third for Manchester United.
For the season, he's averaging almost three shots per 90 minutes and also leads the team with a 0.36 xG per-90 minutes scoring rate.
Southampton's defense has been bad and they often make mistakes in build up, which will only help Fernandes and Manchester United get quality opportunities.
I like the price on Fernandes at +175 to score anytime.
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Betting on Team Total Goals
Southampton have been terrible defensively this season, but I think there are a couple routes to them scoring in this match.
Manchester United have become a good pressing team under Ruben Amorim, but there are still some moments where teams have been able to play through them. Southampton have some good passers and ball carriers in Flynn Downes and Tyler Dibling who can cause United problems through the center of the pitch.
Manchester United have the worst set-piece defense in the Premier League, while Southampton are fifth in expected goals per set piece which is surprising given they have just 12 goals this season.
I like the value on Southampton to find the back of the net at -138.
Betting on Goalkeeper saves
I feel bad for Aaron Ramsdale at times because he's constantly under siege. He's been doing an admirable job with his post-shot xG plus/minus being right around the Premier League average.
Given how this match is likely going to play out, United are going to control a majority of the possession and tilt the field on Southampton. That means there will be a lot of shots on target and Ramsdale will be called into action for all 90 minutes.
He's averaging 4.2 saves per 90 minutes, but with him likely facing more shots than usual, I like the value on him over 4.5 saves at +100.
Manchester United vs. Southampton Betting Picks
- Bruno Fernandes Anytime Goalscorer (+175)
- Southampton Team Total Over 0.5 goals (-138)
- Aaron Ramsdale Over 4.5 saves (+100)
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