This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The midweek was highlighted by a bunch of Premier League teams that didn't care to be playing in the EFL Cup. While a few teams put out fairly strong sides, the majority of them rotated across the pitch and that resulted in a lot of ho-hum results (see: Newcastle vs. Manchester City). I'm not putting anything into those matches, including the Manchester United and Crystal Palace contest even though they play again this weekend.
Record: 13-11. Up $283 on $100 bets.
Want more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris Owen breakdown three matches and dish out a team parlay.
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EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Manchester United
Under 2.5 goals between Man United and Crystal Palace +105
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I was eyeing this bet before Tuesday's 3-0 result and fortunately that game improved the odds for me. This is a classic match in which Roy Hodgson will want to play for a 1-0 win. There's little reason to take anything from Tuesday's matchup when Hodgson rotated his side heavily, especially on the back line.
Will Hughes has played well in place of Jefferson Lerma and that gives me some confidence in Palace pulling this out. I think this could be similar to the Burnley match for Man United in which they got a goal almost out of nothing before the first half ended. Take out Odsonne Edouard and I'm not sure Palace will score. So, can the Red Devils score three goals again? I don't think so.
EPL Best Bets for Brighton & Hove Albion at Aston Villa
Aston Villa to beat Brighton +155
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Aston Villa and Brighton are in a similar spot. They were both upset in their UEFA debuts a week ago, bounced back with a league win and then lost in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday. While both teams are enjoying life in European play, the games are already stacking up, as both teams have had constant injury issues to open the campaign.
I prefer Aston Villa in this spot because Unai Emery adjusts his tactics based on opponent and Roberto De Zerbi seems to run out a similar style in every game when possible. Villa won both meetings last season and I expect something similar to happen here.
I'm still not completely sold on Brighton's midfield of Mahmoud Dahoud and Billy Gilmour while Pascal Gross is out, though I'm also not overly confident in Villa's back line. No matter, Villa are at home and I think this is a perfect spot for them to bait De Zerbi-ball and score off mistakes and on the counter.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester City at Wolverhampton and Brentford at Nottingham Forest
Parlay: Manchester City to beat Wolves and Nottingham Forest double chance against Brentford -105
I originally had Tottenham in this parlay, but I saved that pick for Kits & Wagers. The first piece to this parlay is Manchester City, who surely can't drop points in back-to-back matches. I know Rodri is suspended, but Wolverhampton were just outplayed by Luton Town and I'm not sure how they'll cope in this spot after losing last season's meetings by a combined 6-0 scoreline. City will dominate possession and seem likely for multiple goals unless it's a Jose Sa masterclass.
I think this is a great spot for Nottingham Forest, as well. Brentford are at maybe one of their biggest crossroads of the last couple seasons. They have injuries, suspensions and haven't looked right since the 3-0 win at Fulham. While Thomas Frank thought his team put in a good performance against Arsenal on Wednesday, a lot of that was built off allowing an early goal and pressing a mostly secondary unit for the Gunners the rest of the way. As for Forest, they're back at City Ground and rested after not playing midweek.
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EPL Best Bets for Chelsea at Fulham
Under 2.5 goals between Fulham and Chelsea -115
At what point do Chelsea get treated like a team near relegation that can't score? I know they have a top-six xG, but at some point they have to put the ball in the back of the net. Like last week, I'm taking the under in their match. With Fulham at home and under the lights at Craven Cottage, I assume Chelsea will get their chances, but there won't be many. Without Nicolas Jackson up front, can anyone step up and score?
Conversely, Chelsea aren't allowing that many opportunities and if Raul Jimenez starts again, I don't want to bet on Fulham to score. As long as the odds stay close to even in these Chelsea matches, I'll continue to take the under 2.5 goals.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 7
- Under 2.5 goals between Man United and Crystal Palace +105
- Aston Villa to beat Brighton +155
- Parlay: Manchester City to beat Wolves and Nottingham Forest double chance against Brentford -105
- Under 2.5 goals between Fulham and Chelsea -115
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
