DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Picks

For detailed stats and odds, check out the DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL heat Sheet

MATCHES (EST)
3:00 pm: Atlético Madrid vs. Juventus
3:00 pm: FC Schalke 04 vs. Manchester City

FORWARDS

Cristiano Ronaldo, JUV at ATL ($10,300): Fading Ronaldo on the two-day slate was a bit easier because you could also play Lionel Messi and Mohamed Salah, and while Manchester City offer plenty of options (more on them in a bit), there's no question that Ronaldo has the highest floor of any forward on the slate. He has no role on corners, though any direct free kick (he leads Serie A in free kick shots) and penalty will be his for the taking. His floor is mostly from his shot volume, as he's ripped off 35, including 15 on target, in his last six games, finding the back of the net seven times while also picking up three assists on 15 chances created and drawing 12 fouls. The matchup away to Atletico Madrid is certainly tough, but no player outside of Manchester City has higher anytime goal scorer odds, and Ronaldo's name recognition is likely enough to make him highly owned.

Sergio Aguero, MCI at S04 ($10,100): Given Manchester City's overwhelming win odds and implied goal total, a stack of their attackers is certainly in play. Aguero is the most likely to score, and he's shown his ridiculous upside lately with two hat tricks in his last three games. Consideration for Manchester City can go well beyond Aguero, as Raheem Sterling ($8,800), Leroy Sane ($9,100) and even Gabriel Jesus ($8,300) and Bernardo Silva ($7,900) could be owned in cash games as fantasy players try to capture all pieces of the Manchester City goals. This is a fairly regular problem for those who play DFS soccer, as City have a number of players who can go off in any game and you just have to hope that you land on the right pieces. Targeting multiple Man City attackers is obviously a viable strategy, but you're likely leaving yourself going into the slate hoping that any secondary piece (assuming you have at least one) will be better than what Ronaldo can put up.

Mario Mandzukic, JUV at ATL ($5,700): Mandzukic, lining up against one of his former teams, doesn't have nearly the upside of Ronaldo or Paulo Dybala ($9,000), but he's been very serviceable lately thanks to his contributions through shots, fouls drawn and tackles. He's probably not worth targeting in cash games because so many others will be taking two elite forwards, and there aren't really midfielders or defenders worth paying up for, but getting a $5,700 goal in GPPs is always helpful. On the other side of this match is Alvaro Morata ($5,000), who is also facing a former team, and while he's been decent in his three La Liga matches for Atletico Madrid after transferring from Chelsea, it certainly didn't help that he committed five fouls in each of those outings. You could also target the Schalke guys to differentiate in GPPs, with Mark Uth ($6,100) the most likely to score, unless Guido Burgstaller ($5,800) gets the start after recently returning from injury. That being said, targeting Schalke forwards in cash games is probably not the optimal direction.

MIDFIELDERS

Kevin De Bruyne, MCI at S04 ($9,000): De Bryne will have a role on set pieces for the biggest favorite on the slate if he starts, but it's a situation that hasn't led to a plethora of fantasy points this season. Manchester City are likely to win plenty of dead balls, but De Bruyne's crossing numbers are way down this season, and his price all but requires at least an assist. He could certainly be used as part of a Manchester City stack, but his high salary (he's the most expensive midfield-only player) likely requires you to pay down at forward on a slate that doesn't offer great cheap options, at least in cash games. David Silva ($8,600) is presumably a pivot from De Bruyne, but he also requires getting on the scoresheet to make his salary worth paying. The best bet might be Ilkay Gundogan ($6,000), who regularly has a role on set pieces when he starts, though he hasn't sent in more than five crosses in a match since October, and he rarely wins tackles or draws fouls.

Amine Harit, S04 v. MCI ($4,300): Schalke offer a number of lower-priced midfielders, which isn't surprising since they are overwhelming underdogs. Harit garners much of his fantasy value from shots and fouls drawn, highlighted by a match against Augsburg in December when he had four shots, including two on target, and eight fouls drawn; in fact, he's drawn at least five fouls in four consecutive starts. His spot in the starting XI isn't guaranteed, but we have alternatives in players like Daniel Caligiuri ($4,700) and Nabil Bentaleb ($4,200), who could have a path to set pieces, or guys like Weston McKennie ($4,100) and Sebastian Rudy ($3,800) if you're willing to go a little more defensive.

Rodrigo Bentancur, JUV at ATL ($3,200): Any analysis of Bentancur has to start with the fact that he's minimum-priced for a midfielder. His fantasy value comes from winning tackles and drawing fouls, which don't exactly scream upside. However, there are plenty of attackers worth paying up for and getting a player at this salary will be almost more valuable than the scattered fantasy points he might score.

DEFENDERS

Bastian Oczipka, S04 v. MCI ($3,600): Oczipka's potential role on set pieces could make him a popular option in cash games, even with Schalke as heavy underdogs against Manchester City. He has scored at least 6.00 fantasy points in each of his last three Bundesliga matches, and his low salary will surely be attractive to those looking to pay up for goal scorers. If you're looking for a punt play that no one will have, Matija Nastasic ($3,400) has taken two shots in each of his last two starts.

Alex Sandro, JUV at ATL ($5,000): Sandro and Joao Cancelo ($5,300) are the most attacking fullbacks on the slate, though it still feels like one that doesn't necessitate having them. It's not that they aren't good plays, but spending that much for one of them when you can get somewhat similar production for less salary seems less than ideal. That being said, they have a good chance of being the highest-scoring players at the position, so if there's salary left over, they could be worth spending on.

Santiago Arias, ATL v. JUV ($4,300): The Atletico Madrid fullbacks are probably better values on a per-dollar basis, so while Sandro and Cancelo may score more points, you're ultimately paying for them. Arias' attacking upside isn't that high, but he does solid defensive work that allows him to score fantasy points with crosses, tackles won and fouls drawn, so rostering him and spending a little more on attackers could be optimal.

GOALKEEPER

Ralf Fahrmann, S04 v. MCI ($3,600): Fahrmann represents the save upside since he's playing at home but still a heavy underdog. That save upside also comes with the most likely chance of getting lit up, so there's obviously plenty of risk at this low salary. Man City's Ederson ($5,900) is the most likely to get a win and clean sheet, but one goal conceded and his price is a waste. And the other match on the slate actually has a really low total, with a scoreless draw certainly a possibility. The match itself is pretty much a coinflip, which is why Jan Oblak ($4,800) and Wojciech Szczesny ($4,700) are only $100 apart with no strong reason to play one over the other.