This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
GAMES (EDT)
- 10:00 am: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Arsenal
- 12:30 pm: West Ham United vs. Wolverhampton
- 2:45 pm: AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace
For additional stats and odds, check out the
MIDFIELDERS
We start with midfielders because it's going to be the toughest position to fill, not because we have a lack of options but because we have a plethora of them. Opportunity cost is going to be the biggest issue because most of the guys we'll want to prioritize, at least in cash games, are going to be midfielders, and they come in all different price tiers. Additionally, because of the staggered start times (we'll only know the Brighton and Arsenal lineups at lock), we have to be extra cautious about players whose spots in the starting XI may not be that secure. Oh yeah, and these guys (other than Arsenal's) haven't played a competitive match in three months because of a global pandemic, they've only trained for about three-and-a-half weeks, each side will get five substitutes per match and they all play again next Tuesday (Brighton, West Ham), Wednesday (Wolves, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace) or Thursday (Arsenal) before lacing up their boots again next weekend.
Joao Moutinho, WOL at WHU ($9,000): 2019 Andrew would thrash me for even thinking about this, but 2020 is just making us do some weird things and here we are thinking about paying $9,000 for Moutinho, who has sent in more crosses and created more chances than any other player on the slate (he's respectively seventh and tied for fourth in those categories league-wide). There are four players on the slate who average more crosses per 90 minutes, though only two of them are likely to play Saturday, and it's possible they don't start (we'll know about one of them before lock). The most basic argument for Moutinho is that he has a monopoly of set pieces for the biggest favorite (they're +114 away favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook), and he's highly likely to start the second match on the slate. Does the price feel high? Sure, but it seems like we're going to have to pay a little more for lineup safety these days. West Ham's Robert Snodgrass ($8,600) is one of the players who is averaging more crosses per 90 minutes this season, with his 8.10 actually the highest on the slate, but he played 12 and one minute off the bench in each of the last two games before the league suspension, so we obviously have to question his lineup spot. Otherwise, you could pay down for Pablo Fornals ($7,100), who took a smattering of sets recently, or Mark Noble ($4,800), who also provides penalty upside. Then again, West Ham are the biggest underdog and Wolves have conceded the second-fewest crosses among teams on the slate, so I'm not sure why we're prioritizing them when there are plenty of other paths to take.
Harry Wilson, BOU v. CRY ($7,300): With Ryan Fraser ($8,200) seemingly done with Bournemouth because he is refusing to sign a short-term contract extension to finish out the season, Wilson is going to be tasked with extra attacking responsibilities, likely including set pieces, against a Crystal Palace side that that's allowed the most crosses, as well as the fifth-most corners, in the Premier League. It's worth pointing out that this is the latest game on the slate and pivoting away from Wilson could cause you to eat some salary if you don't have other roster spots to adjust, but he is certainly more likely to start than not. Set pieces are also a bit up for grabs if Junior Stanislas ($4,100) also starts, and while Stanislas' lower salary seems more attractive on the surface, he was highly unlikely to play 90 minutes when only three subs were allowed, and he's only made six appearances all season due to various injuries. If neither Wilson nor Stanislas start, we could see Andrew Surman ($3,400) take on those responsibilities, though that's also if Diego Rico ($4,900, defender) isn't in the first XI. The thing that separates Wilson apart from the others is that he's a viable open-play contributor, with only four projected starters averaging more shots per 90 this season. Fantasy players looking in Wilson's price range will also consider Brighton's Aaron Mooy ($6,900), but the Brighton set-piece situation has been such a mess because of multiple players who could take them (and they could all start together), and he's playing as a home underdog against Arsenal. If anything, Solomon March ($6,100) should get more attention because of his open-play value, but even then it might be worth paying down, possibly for Dani Ceballos ($5,500) or Mesut Ozil ($5,800); well, probably not Ozil.
James McCarthy, CRY at BOU ($4,600): McCarthy was sharing set pieces with Patrick van Aanholt ($6,300, defender) before the league suspension, and he's likely to keep that role as long as Luka Milivojevic ($6,400) doesn't start (he hasn't started their last three Premier League games). McCarthy isn't much of an attacking player, but he has seen his chances created and crosses increase because of the set pieces, and he's a regular contributor in defensive stats, which have no upside but at least help his floor. Similar to Wilson, he plays in the late game, so there may be some shuffling needed if the lineup is wonky, but McCarthy has a very safe floor, especially for his price. If anything, rostering McCarthy could allow you to easily pivot to Stanislas if it looks like he has a clear path to all of Bournemouth's set pieces, and while Crystal Palace have allowed the most crosses in the league this season, Bournemouth are fourth in the category (and second among teams on the slate).
FORWARDS
Nicolas Pepe, ARS at BHA ($9,800): Pepe did not play Wednesday against Manchester City, though it's unclear if that was always part of the plan or a result of Arsenal having to make two injury substitutions before the 25-minute mark and then going down to 10 men in the 49th. If he does start Saturday, he makes for a solid play as a set-piece taker for a favored side, albeit one that isn't that great and isn't that big of a favorite. The salary is definitely high, but Pepe's floor is consistent because of his shots, chances created and crosses, and we'll know if he starting because Arsenal play in the first game. Those looking for upside will understandably turn to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($10,000), who has the highest anytime goal scorer odds on the slate, or Alexandre Lacazette ($7,600) if he starts, though Wolves' Raul Jimenez ($9,600) may be more appealing after Aubameyang played 90 on Wednesday, and consideration for Jimenez likely has you considering Diogo Jota ($8,600) because he'll be lower owned, or Adama Traore ($9,500), who has a higher floor.
Wilfried Zaha, CRY at BOU ($7,400): Zaha's price officially makes him a poor man's Adama Traore, as they profile very similarly in terms of their fantasy floors, which are dependent on shots, fouls drawn, a few crosses and some chances created. The total lack of set pieces will always worry some people, but Zaha also has decent upside against a Bournemouth defense that has allowed the second-most shots in the league this season. There's a dearth of forwards with good floors, which could push plenty of fantasy players toward Zaha unless they just want to try their luck with cheaper goal-dependent guys. The only one who might be there is Leandro Trossard ($6,600), who could take set pieces if Mooy and Pascal Gross ($8,100) don't start, and at least we'll know that right away, but that situation seems unlikely.
Bukayo Saka, ARS at BHA ($5,500): Saka's spot in the starting lineup isn't guaranteed, but he took some set pieces Wednesday and would be a solid play at this price if Pepe doesn't start. The Arsenal lineup could be anywhere, so thankfully we'll get it first, and Saka is a decent pay-down option if you don't want to rely on guys like Callum Wilson ($6,300), Sebastien Haller ($6,400) or Christian Benteke ($6,100). Obviously all of those guys have goal upside, but their floors are quite minimal.
DEFENDERS
Aaron Cresswell, WHU v. WOL ($5,100): While the West Ham midfield rotation could give us any number of potential set-piece-taking combinations, Cresswell starting seems like a reliable outcome, which is helpful because he's been taking some corners as well. His salary isn't cheap, but there are plenty of paths for fantasy players to take that leaves money to be spent here. Crystal Palace's Patrick van Aanholt ($6,300) is the most expensive defender and also has a role on set pieces, and it wouldn't be surprising to see many cash lineups with both of them. In fact, fantasy players who roster Benteke would certainly benefit from the correlation with van Aanholt, with Zaha and Jordan Ayew ($7,900) less likely to be on the end of a PvA cross. The other possibility in this range is Diego Rico ($4,900) if he starts for Bournemouth because he usually has a role on corners when he's in, though he wasn't a regular starter before the league suspension, and he's playing in the late game.
Adam Smith, BOU v. CRY ($3,700): Smith was the reason Rico wasn't starting, and while he isn't nearly as productive as Rico in terms of fantasy points, that's why we get him at a decent discount. You can't expect too much here, but as one of the cheapest potential starting fullbacks, Smith will probably get some ownership, if only because he could be a key pivoting piece for some people who may need to adjust their lineups for the last game and need the salary relief. Admittedly, there isn't a whole lot that separates Smith from a center-back, so paying down further for someone like Nathan Ake ($2,700) can't be considered too cavalier on this slate even though there aren't a lot of guys that you have to pay up for in cash or GPPs.
GOALKEEPER
Lukasz Fabianski, WHU v. WOL ($4,200): The price difference between the top (Rui Patricio at $5,300) and Fabianski isn't that great, which happens when you have three games that are basically pick 'ems. Additionally, none of the games are expected to be high scoring, so this is truly a slate that comes down to taking whoever fits after you work out the rest of your lineup, with Fabianski obviously providing the most salary relief because he's the cheapest.
