DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Manchester City v. Arsenal Showdown Preview

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DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Manchester City v. Arsenal Showdown Cheat Sheet

The Premier League returns to DraftKings in a huge way, with one of the biggest soccer contests we've ever seen, awarding $50,000 to first place ($750 to 12th), a prize that is being fronted by DraftKings as guaranteed overlay (the 15,000 $10 entries only account for $150,000 of the $200,000 total prize pool). Those who regularly play soccer will be absolutely astonished that so much overlay is being thrown in, especially with how regularly $20,000 prize pools are shrunk to $12,000 after 1.5 percent overlay; but I digress.

The Coronavirus pandemic suspension has forced the Premier League into a very condensed schedule over the next few weeks, with Manchester City and Arsenal (as well as Aston Villa and Sheffield United) actually playing 10 remaining games instead of nine, which not only all but ensures we'll see lots of roster rotation from game to game, but we're also going to see more substitutes because each team is allowed to make five per match instead of three. That hurts fantasy players looking to target Manchester City the most because they have arguably the best bench in the Premier League, especially among their attacking players. Expectations for each player should probably be capped at 70 to 75 minutes, with anything above that just gravy. Every attacking player has a more-than-serviceable backup, and while you can try to predict substitution patterns in the hopes of landing on the player, or players, who go the full 90 minutes, I think it's best to make sure you're doing an apples-to-apples comparison by seeing what each team did the last time there was a mid-season multi-month break for a worldwide pandemic.

Now that we have that out of the way, we can discuss that Manchester City are -315 favorites (DraftKings Sportsbook) at home, with the over 2.5 goals sitting at -275 and over 3.5 at -103. A lot of that is because of the attacking strength of Man City, the highest-scoring team in the Premier League, but it also has to do with their defense, which has failed to shut out teams like Aston Villa, Burnley, Crystal Palace and Newcastle, to name a few. The Arsenal attack isn't nearly as productive as it's been in previous seasons, but they still have solid players who are fully capable of breaking a Manchester City clean sheet.

Kevin De Bruyne ($12,400) is the most expensive player on the slate, but that will happen when you have scored the most fantasy points in the league, including the most floor points. It's not really a fair comparison, but De Bruyne has scored more than twice as many fantasy points and floor points as the highest Arsenal player, Nicolas Pepe ($7,800). De Bruyne's hefty price, which accounts for 37.2 percent of the salary cap if he's used in the captain spot, isn't likely to reduce his ownership much, especially in cash games.

Most fantasy players are likely going to try to stack Manchester City in this game, but they are all so expensive that it won't be easy. Riyad Mahrez ($10,800), Sergio Aguero ($10,400) and Raheem Sterling ($9,800) could make up the attacking front for Man City, and if you try to play them with De Bruyne then you're left with $400 remaining for two roster spots. Even rostering two of them only leaves you with an average of $3,400 per spot if you captain De Bruyne. Essentially what this means is that you're really stretching if you try and roster three of the expensive Manchester City attackers, but even guys like Bernardo Silva ($8,600), David Silva ($8,000) and Ilkay Gundogan ($7,400) are fairly expensive, so you're not getting a much higher-caliber player with the extra salary you can use elsewhere.

This is a perfect multi-entry slate because you can anchor two or three Manchester City players and just let the lineup randomizer optimizer do the rest. You don't even need to use projections because there really isn't that much of a difference when it comes to the cheap players you're filling in around your Man City attackers, at least from a median projection standpoint. Sure, Rodri ($4,400) plays more forward than someone like Fernandinho ($3,600), but their projections are close enough that it doesn't matter when you have multiple lineups. 

Single entry is a different story, of course, but there are still likely to be a ton of De Bruyne/Aguero lineups, assuming both start. I'd venture to guess that will be the highest combination of two higher-priced players in both cash games and GPPs, with Mahrez and Sterling likely replacing one of them for those who want lower-owned players. Aguero and Gabriel Jesus ($9,600), who I don't expect to start, have the highest anytime goal scorer odds, followed by Sterling, Mahrez, Leroy Sane ($9,000, also unlikely to start), De Bruyne and Bernardo among the Man City attackers, with Aguero's -175 the highest on the slate. That's reason enough for many people to target him, and it's not like his salary is significantly higher than the others.

You aren't likely to create much of a contrarian lineup by fading one or both of De Bruyne and Aguero because Sterling, Mahrez, Bernardo and Gundogan will surely be owned too. The more beneficial move is to simply roster the Arsenal attackers, or at least one, instead. There is not enough salary relief with some of them where you can combine them with multiple Manchester City guys, but fading Aguero and De Bruyne for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($9,200) or Pepe would certainly be an interesting maneuver. Arsenal are obviously heavy underdogs in this match, but they definitely have the attacking chops to at least put one into the back of the net. Alexandre Lacazette ($7,000), who wasn't starting before the league suspension, would also be an interesting play if he's in because he offers decent salary savings. I suppose you could say the same thing about Edward Nketiah ($6,000), who was starting, though he seems less likely to score.

The cheaper guys all come down to whether you want somewhat attacking players on a huge underdog or more defensive players on the big favorite. Specifically, would you rather Arsenal's Mesut Ozil ($5,600), who could take one or two short corners, or Kyle Walker ($5,200), who moves up a bit in the Man City attack from his right-back spot but doesn't really cross much? Dani Ceballos ($5,000) has also taken some free kicks (Pepe is also in the rotation), but he could be outscored by Oleksandr Zinchenko ($5,200) if he gets the start ahead of Benjamin Mendy ($6,200). I don't want to say these guys are just names, but they are pretty much just the guys we're thinking about because we want to pay up for the attackers.

We'll also certainly see ownership for the cheapest players, with Granit Xhaka ($3,400) seemingly the one most likely to be that guy unless Pablo Mari ($3,000) starts at center-back for the Gunners. Xhaka's role on set pieces has pretty much disappeared this season, so that shouldn't be part of the equation, and you're just hoping that he finishes above zero if rostering him means you can get De Bruyne and Aguero, for example. Fernandinho will probably be the most popular cheap option because he's on a favorite, with clean sheet potential too, and it's a bit surprising he's cheaper than guys like David Luiz ($3,800) or Sokratis Papastathopoulos ($4,000). But, again, all of these guys have projections close enough to each other that even if you're a single-entry player, I'd run an optimizer for 100 lineups and see which one you like the best.