This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It all comes down to the final matches as the Champions League group stage wraps up this week. There are a handful of groups that have wrapped everything up, see Group G, so you'll want to be aware of possible squad rotation, but there is still plenty to play for in the others, including spots in the knockout round or a place in Europa League.
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UCL Best Bets for Tuesday, Dec. 12
Lens to beat Sevilla -105
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Sevilla seem to add more players to the injury list with every passing week and find themselves bringing just 18 players for the trip to Stade Bollaert-Delelis. In fact, just 11 players are considered first-team options with the rest of the squad filled out from the junior ranks.
Additionally, as of writing, Sevilla away fans have been banned from traveling to Lens as part of a broader French ban on traveling fans. This will only serve to create a more difficult environment for the Spanish club.
For their part, Lens secured a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture and will be looking to bounce back from a 6-0 thrashing at the hands of Arsenal last round.
Victor Osimhen to score -120
Napoli are the biggest favorite on the board Tuesday at -210 against SC Braga after winning the reverse fixture 2-1. The Italian side need at least a draw to secure their place in the Champions League knockout rounds, so they can't take this one for granted and need at least one point. The moneyline value isn't there to take the risk, but you could consider going Napoli -1.5 goals (+125) if you really believe in them.
Another route is to snag some value out of the goalscorer odds as Napoli have an implied goal total just north of two. Osimhen leads the team domestically with six goals despite playing in just 11 contests due to an injury. He's yet to score in three Champions League matches but should be in contention to break through in what projects to be a one-sided contest. Matteo Politano could be another option based on his five domestic goals at +180 odds.
UCL Best Bets for Wednesday, Dec. 13
RB Leipzig -1.5 goals against Young Boys -120
It seems like Manchester City are usually the biggest favorite on the board but that title goes to RB Leipzig this week, no doubt in part due to the German club playing at home (and City have nothing to play for). Even goalscoring favorite Lois Openda doesn't return enough value (-165) to consider taking him in this one.
In the reverse fixture, Leipzig secured a 3-1 victory which would cover the -1.5 goal spread, but with that match having been on the road, you could consider going to -2.5 to earn the bigger payout (+205). Perhaps the only worry is that Leipzig are firmly cemented in the second spot of Group G and could decide to give some of their starters a rest.
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Barcelona to beat Antwerp and over 2.5 goals +125
While Barcelona have secured a place in the knockout rounds, they could technically drop from the top spot in Group H depending on the result of the Porto and Shakhtar Donetsk matchup. The Spanish club may need a result but might not go full out like they did in the reverse fixture, defeating Royal Antwerp 5-0 in a rout.
Still, they should be able to score a trio of goals and at -170 are certainly favored to get the victory. It's away from home, which might explain why they aren't bigger favorites and it should be noted that regular starters like Robert Lewandowski, Ilkay Gundogan and Ronald Araujo will be missing the matchup.
Rather than focusing on the absences, it could be a good opportunity to look at Joao Felix (+180) or Ferran Torres (+185) as anytime goalscorers.
UCL Betting Picks Matchday 6
- Lens Moneyline -105
- Victor Osimhen Anytime Scorer -120
- RB Leipzig -1.5 goals against Young Boys -120
- Barcelona to beat Antwerp and over 2.5 goals +125
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