DFS KBO: Thursday Cheat Sheet

It's rainy in Korea these days. For much of the day yesterday, it looked as though only a pair of games were at risk of being canceled, but we wound up seeing just one of the five games go forward. That game turned out to be a low-scoring affair between the Tigers and Eagles, with the teams managing just three runs and nine hits between them in the Tigers' 2-1 win. Hyun Jong Yang rebounded from an awful stretch to strike out eight Eagles while allowing just one run in five innings to pick up the win. Rain unfortunately looks set to be a major factor again ahead of Thursday's slate, as all five games appear threatened as of writing. Wednesday's unexpected off day allowed some teams to skip their back-end starters in favor of better arms this time around, though there are still plenty of options to pick on if the slate does indeed go forward.

Note: with many of the pitchers who were originally scheduled to throw Wednesday remaining on the slate for Thursday's games, parts of this cheat sheet were pulled directly from Wednesday's version.

Pitchers

Aaron Brooks ($10,100 DraftKings, $30 FanDuel as "Kia Starting P") would likely deserve his steep price even if he weren't facing the last-ranked Eagles offense, but that assignment gives him a strong case as the clear top option on this slate. Brooks ranks among the league leaders in most relevant stats through his first 13 starts in Korea, sitting fifth among qualified starters in ERA (2.49), sixth in WHIP (1.12) and fourth in walk rate (4.5 percent). His 20.5 percent strikeout rate is merely good for 13th, but it's still solidly above average and gives him plenty of upside against the league's weakest lineup.

Drew Rucinski ($10,300 DraftKings, $27 FanDuel as "NC Starting P") is similarly expensive on both sites, though he's seen his price drop slightly on FanDuel. His excellent 2.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP may be slightly better than he deserves, as it's taken a .261 BABIP and an 86.5 percent strand rate to get him there, but he's still having quite the season even when taking those numbers into account. His 21.7 percent strikeout rate ranks ninth among qualified starters, and he's paired that number with a solid 7.1 percent walk rate. He's been almost unbeatable over his last four starts, allowing just two runs over 26 innings in a stretch which included three outings against top-five lineups. The sixth-ranked Lions unit shouldn't give him much trouble Thursday.

For a cheaper option, consider Geon Wook Lee ($6,800 DraftKings, $20 FanDuel as "SK Starting P"). The 25-year-old entered the year having thrown just two KBO innings, but he's produced a strong 3.08 ERA in nine starts and a pair of relief appearances so far this year. It's hard to place too much faith in that number, as it's taken a .248 BABIP and a 77.8 percent strand rate to get him there. He walks far too many batters (11.4 percent), but he does at least have an above-average strikeout rate (18.3 percent), and his 9:1 K:BB over his last two outings is quite strong. He's not much more than an adequate mid-rotation option, but he isn't priced as if he's anything more than that, and he'll get a rather easy matchup against the eighth-ranked Giants offense, an assignment made even easier by the fact that the lineup leans heavily right-handed.

Top Targets

The Heroes have swapped righty Won Tae Choi for lefty Seung Ho Lee in this contest. Lee is in the midst of a very poor stretch, posting a 16.20 ERA and a 2.52 WHIP over his last three starts, making him a prime target here, though he'll at least get the platoon advantage against the majority of the Bears' best bats, which was enough for me to recommend a different pair of stacks instead. I'd still be happy to select several Bears, though, especially righties like Kun Woo Park ($4,900 DraftKings, $13 FanDuel). Park started the season quite poorly but has been on fire since the final day of May, hitting .381/.403/.558 over his last 37 games. He's currently riding a 13-game hitting streak, a stretch in which he's hit .352 with three homers and 13 runs scored.

Twins righty Chan Gyu Lim has been having a solid season, as his 4.06 ERA is backed up by a 22.4 percent strikeout rate and a 6.1 percent walk rate, but he's been slipping lately, allowing four runs in two of his previous three starts before tossing six scoreless innings against the anemic Eagles his last time out. Even if he hadn't started to struggle, however, he wouldn't be nearly intimidating enough to keep me off Mel Rojas Jr. ($6,500 DraftKings, $18 FanDuel), something no one but the best starters in the league can do at this point. Rojas has very clearly established himself as the premier offensive weapon in the KBO, as his three homers in the last two games -- including a walkoff bomb Tuesday -- gave him 24 for the season, six more than anyone else in the league. He hit an absurd .524/.574/1.000 over his last 11 games, so there's basically no price too high for him at this point.

Bargain Bats

Chang Jin Lee ($3,300 DraftKings, $5 FanDuel) remains a steal as a minimum-price option on FanDuel and is quite affordable on DraftKings as well. The center fielder has only appeared in 13 games this season after missing most of the year due to a back injury, but he's looked quite good since his return, hitting .327/.393/.418. He's not an elite bat, as he hit a solid but unspectacular .270/.363/.383 with just six homers and eight steals in his lone full season last year, but he's certainly a good enough hitter for his price. He looks like a strong play Thursday, where he'll lead off and get the platoon advantage against Eagles lefty Chad Bell, who's struggled to a 7.96 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in eight starts while battling elbow issues.

Ji Young Lee ($2,800 DraftKings, $7 FanDuel) didn't make it into the Heroes stack discussed below, but he's an interesting budget option, especially for those looking to go cheap at the catcher position on DraftKings. He's normally blocked by Dong Won Park, one of the top catchers in the league, but Park is currently out with an abdominal injury. The 34-year-old Lee has hit like a backup catcher for most of his career, but he's seeing the ball well this season, hitting .322/.379/.378 in 160 plate appearances. His presence in a strong Heroes lineup against a weak opposing starter (discussed below) makes him worth a look here.

Stacks To Consider

Heroes vs. Chi Guk Park: Jung Hoo Lee ($5,100 DraftKings, $16 FanDuel), Keon Chang Seo ($4,700 DraftKings, $13 FanDuel), Ha Seong Kim ($6,200 DraftKings, $17 FanDuel)

The Bears were already struggling greatly with their rotation depth, and that problem only got worse when Chris Flexen was ruled out for at least a month due to a broken foot last week. Park will get the chance to fill in for him in his first start since 2017. The 22-year-old's 2.76 ERA in 29.1 innings of relief this season is quite good but isn't backed up by the rest of his stat line. It's taken a .267 BABIP to get him there, as he's struck out just 15.9 percent of opposing batters while walking 13.6 percent. Park threw 56 pitches in his most recent relief outing, so this should be closer to a true start than a bullpen game, but the fourth-ranked Heroes lineup should be able to do damage against both him and whichever long relievers the Bears bring in behind him.

Lee entered the season as an excellent contact hitter with minimal power, having never hit below .324 in his first three KBO seasons but never hitting more than six homers. He's having the breakout season every player dreams of in his age-21 campaign, however, as he's already hit 12 homers without sacrificing any contact, as he owns a career-best .356 batting average and an excellent 7.5 percent strikeout rate. As the number three hitter for a strong lineup who will get the platoon advantage against an unreliable righty, he should justify his high price here.

Leadoff man Seo will also get the platoon advantage here, making him the clear second choice. His three-hit day Tuesday represented his fifth multi-hit game in his last 11 contests, a stretch in which he's hitting .349. On the season as a whole, he's hitting .303/.401/.445 with far more walks (38) than strikeouts (28). He has quintessential leadoff speed, as his 16 steals are four more than anyone else in the league has managed and just one fewer than his total from last year.

Kim slots in right between Seo and Lee in the second spot in the order. He's quite expensive and won't get the platoon advantage, but he's talented enough to be worth consideration nonetheless. His .279/.388/.516 season slash line, which comes with 15 homers and 10 steals, would be a strong mark at any position, let alone shortstop. As with Lee and Seo, he's demonstrated an excellent eye, posting an excellent 14.7 percent walk rate to go with a 10.9 percent strikeout rate.

Wyverns vs. Won Sam Jang: Jeong Choi ($5,400 DraftKings, $14 FanDuel), Jamie Romak ($4,600 DraftKings, $12 FanDuel),  Dong Min Han ($4,200 DraftKings, $8 FanDuel)

Jang has made just four starts this year and has struggled greatly, posting an 8.38 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. A 45.8 percent strand rate undoubtedly inflates his ERA somewhat, but it's not as though he's pitched remotely well. He's struck out just 7.8 percent of opposing batters while allowing 1.9 HR/9. None of this should be much of a surprise for the 37-year-old lefty. He had some strong seasons early in his career but is well past his peak, as he hasn't recorded an ERA below 5.50 since 2014. Even a lineup as weak as the Wyverns shouldn't have too much trouble against him in this one.

While a lack of depth has doomed the Wyverns' lineup to a ninth-place ranking in runs per game, they're led by a hitter in Choi who would have a strong case as the top hitter on several teams in the KBO. He had an awful first three weeks of the season, slumping to a .494 OPS, but he's hit an excellent .344/.462/.662 in his last 45 contests. He's battled multiple minor injuries in the month of July, missing three games, but that hasn't seemed to affect his performance when he's been in the lineup, as he's hitting .373 with five homers in 15 games this month.

Like Choi, Romak will get the platoon advantage against the left-handed Jang. Unlike Choi, he'd been slumping lately, hitting just .125 with a .519 OPS heading into Saturday's game against the Heroes. He seems to have figured things out, though, as he's gone 5-for-12 with a pair of homers in his last three games, including a walkoff blast Tuesday. On the season as a whole, the Canadian's .264/.380/.493 slash line is a bit below his lofty expectations, as his .873 OPS is his lowest mark among his four KBO seasons, but that's still enough to justify his price, which has fallen out of the top tier on both sites.

Han won't get the platoon advantage in this one, but Jang is weak enough that he's worth a look anyway, especially on FanDuel, where he's quite cheap. It took him a bit to get going following a lengthy absence due to a bruised shin, as he grabbed just two hits in his first seven games, but he seems healthy now after going 2-for-4 with a homer in Tuesday's win. He showed big power in his 17 games prior to his injury, hitting six homers and slugging .667. That kind of power shouldn't be a surprise to see from him going forward, as he hit a career-high 41 homers in 2018.