This article is part of our The Daily Puck series.
Sunday's play featured the Flyers thrashing the Penguins, a beautiful overtime snipe from Tyler Seguin, and the Wild's continued slide down the standings.
For months, they were the top team in the Western Conference. Then March started and everything fell apart. They're 3-10-1 since the start of the month.
There's plenty of panic going around St. Paul, but let's take a sober look at what's happening and how it impacts your roster construction. The first question should be whether or not they're actually playing poorly or if they're just losing games, which obviously isn't good, but is a distinction that matters. Shot metrics say their on-ice play isn't necessarily that bad. In March, their adjusted CF% of 54.14% is third in the NHL. Overall this month, they're taking 55.23% of the shots on net.
You can break those March stats apart. As a rate, they're taking 33.14 shots per 60 minutes of game time. That's fourth in the league. They're also only allowing 26.87 shots against, which ranks fourth.
The ice is tilted their way in terms of shot totals. But what about shot quality? Well, they're taking 59.65% of the scoring chances. That's the best mark in the league and it's predominantly because they're limiting scoring chances from the opposition. Opposing teams are getting just 6.56 scoring chances per 60 minutes. No team is allowing fewer scoring chances.
As Jerry Seinfeld might say: So, what's the deal with the Wild?
For starters, pucks aren't going in. They're scoring 2.21 goals per 60 minutes which is well down from the 3.34 goals per hour rate they had prior to the slide. We already saw they're taking plenty of shots, so it's worth looking at their shooting percentage. As a team, they're shooting 6.67% in all situations (29th in the NHL) and it's even worse at even strength, where they are shooting 5.56% (28th in the NHL).
Even worse, they can't buy a save. As a team -- which is largely just Devan Dubnyk, since the team has little faith in Darcy Kuemper -- they have an .886 save percentage in March (28th) and an .897 save percentage at even strength (29th).
What does this mean for your roster? Things aren't as bleak as they look in the standings. If people are bailing on Wild players, it might not be a bad time to scoop them up. The shooting percentage should bounce back toward the team's average and they're getting plenty of opportunities to make it happen. However, you probably want to avoid their goaltending tandem until they prove they can make some saves.
Featured Matchups
Coyotes (PP: 27, PK: 25) at Blues (PP: 6, PK: 5), 8:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Mike Smith (18-24-8, 2.94, .914), Jake Allen (29-19-4, 2.45, .913)
Key Injuries:Alex Burmistrov (upper body), Kevin Connauton (upper body), Shane Doan (lower body), Robby Fabbri (knee), Dmitrij Jaskin (upper body), Jori Lehtera (concussion), Paul Stastny (lower body)
Today's featured games are about the mismatch. The league's worst teams are playing teams on a roll. The Blues are 9-1-1 over their last 11, which includes a 3-0 shutout of the 'Yotes. Meanwhile, Arizona is 4-6-1 over their last 11 and hasn't done much to right their tire fire of a season.
One of the most remarkable things about the Blues' run is they're spreading the scoring around. They're seeing production from the bottom of their forward group, particularly a third line comprised of individuals who have struggled. That makes them appealing fill-ins in daily formats. There's upside to the low price.
Rookie Ivan Barbashev isn't seeing much ice and he's not a volume shooter, but he's making the most of his opportunity. He has points in five of the last six games. Nail Yakupov continues to see time in the press box, but he has assisted in back-to-back games, his first games since March 15. Magnus Paajarvi has three goals and eight shots over the last three games. Patrik Berglund has three points and seven shots in the last three games. Kyle Brodziak is on a three-game point streak.
There's production coming from their depth and they're playing the cellar-dwelling Coyotes, who have a porous blue line. If you need to mine the depths of a roster, start here.
Avalanche (PP: 30, PK: 26) at Flames (PP: 14, PK: 14), 9:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Calvin Pickard (13-26-2, 2.91, .907), Brian Elliott (24-14-3, 2.49, .911)
Key Injuries:Semyon Varlamov (groin), Nikita Zadorov (ankle)
A healthy and hot Flames roster hits the slopes Monday to meet a historically bad Colorado squad. You've heard that a hundred times this year, but it's worth remembering. The Avalanche have been historically bad. Look at starting guys from the opposition every chance you get.
The Flames are 13-3-0 in their last 16, while the Avalanche seem to lose three for every one they win. Since Feb. 9, the Avs are 5-19-1 and are carrying a five-game losing streak into Alberta.
While the Flames don't necessarily have the deepest blue line, there's offensive production to be found on there. Dougie Hamilton continues to give the team a lot after a slow start. During this 16-game run, Hamilton has four goals and 10 assists. He's no Erik Karlsson, but he's having a career-year offensively.
Mark Giordano isn't having the incredible offensive season he had last year, but he still holds value and is picking up the pace. Over the last 18 games, he's put up six goals and seven assists. He's also averaged 2.33 shots per game over the last 12 contests. Start Flames and avoid the Avs like the plague.
Other Matchups
Panthers (PP: 25, PK: 1) at Sabres (PP: 1, PK: 28), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:James Reimer (16-14-5, 2.51, .920), Robin Lehner (21-23-8, 2.64, .922)
Key Injuries:Taylor Fedun (undisclosed), Cody Franson (undisclosed), Johan Larsson (wrist), Rasmus Ristolainen (suspension), Aaron Ekblad (neck), Jaromir Jagr (lower body), Roberto Luongo (lower body)
An outstanding power play meets and outstanding penalty kill. Flip it and a struggling power play meets a floundering penalty kill.
No small part of the power play success in Buffalo has been sophomore Jack Eichel. He may need to start getting the same consideration we give guys like Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Patrik Laine, or Claude Giroux. Eichel has been a dominant force on the power play. Over the last 12 games, he has four power play goals and nine power-play points. Overall, he's posted nine goals and 16 points over that stretch. It's baffling he's not stealing more headlines.
Predators (PP: 11, PK: 20) at Islanders (PP: 26, PK: 13), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Pekka Rinne (30-16-8, 2.48, .916), Thomas Greiss (25-17-5, 2.66, .914)
Key Injuries:Mike Fisher (lower body), Miikka Salomaki (lower body), Johnny Boychuk (lower body), Mikhail Grabovski (concussion), Nikolay Kulemin (undisclosed), Ryan Strome (wrist)
The Islanders have proven to be a fragile group this year. Every roster or coaching change has a domino effect. It's been a series of hot and cold streaks and it's made them tough to figure out.
However, with both teams capable of blowing a game open, the goaltenders in this match might not be the safest bets. The Nashville blue line is always dangerous, as is Filip Forsberg, who has struggled, posting just one goal in the last five games.
At the other end, John Tavares is on a tear and has that unstoppable look to his game. You saw it against the Bruins over the weekend when he went one-on-three and scored. He has points in six straight as well as five goals and seven assists over the last 11.
Red Wings (PP: 29, PK: 11) at Hurricanes (PP: 21, PK: 2), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Petr Mrazek (16-20-8, 2.99, .901), Eddie Lack (7-5-2, 2.48, .906)
Key Injuries:Jay McClement (lower body), Valentin Zykov (upper body), Jonathan Ericsson (wrist), Darren Helm (lower body), Niklas Kronwall (knee), Ryan Sproul (knee)
Despite an overtime win against the ailing Wild on Sunday, be wary of digging into the Red Wings roster. They're missing defensemen, are on the back-end of a back-to-back, and are on the road. To boot, they're facing a team that has struggled at times but boasts a strong blue line, a suffocating penalty kill, and a three-game winning streak.
In fact, the Hurricanes are 5-0-2 in their last seven. That run has featured serious contributions from their young core. Rookie Sebastian Aho is on a six-game point streak with three goals and five assists. Jeff Skinner has goals in five straight with a total of 10 goals and 14 points in the last 12. Teuvo Teravainen has seven points in the last 10 games. They've also got one more streaking player, but we'll get to him in a moment.
Blackhawks (PP: 17, PK: 24) at Lightning (PP: 5, PK: 15), 7:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Corey Crawford (30-16-3, 2.56, .918), Andrei Vasilevskiy (18-16-6, 2.63, .916)
Key Injuries:Artem Anisimov (lower body), Ryan Callahan (hip), Jason Garrison (lower body), Tyler Johnson (lower body), Cedric Paquette (lower body), Steven Stamkos (knee)
Even with a bevy of injuries to contend with, the Lightning are making a big push for the playoffs. They're 8-4-1 in March, but took losses to top teams like the Capitals, Rangers, Penguins, and, somehow, the Coyotes.
A lot of their success has been on the back of Nikita Kucherov, who is succeeding no matter who the team is playing. He's playing like an MVP finalist. He's just two goals from cracking 40 for the first time and it's hard to imagine he doesn't do it. He has goals in four straight games, over which he's totaled seven goals and two assists. He's making outbursts like that a regular occurrence. At the end of February, he had a five-game streak where he put up seven goals and 13 points.
Recommended Pickup
Elias Lindholm, C, CAR — Despite missing some games, Lindholm has quietly had a career year -- though he's not likely to top his 17-goal total from two years ago -- and he's been padding those totals lately. The 22-year-old is on a 10-game point streak and it's time to take notice. He's playing well and making the most of his ice time.
