Thursday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

My rankings are determined by a Corsi-based Rating System that I created, the average Rating is about 49 per game. Like Corsi, this represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, but it's also adjusted for shooting percentage and save percentage. Any shot attempt counts, whether it is on goal, off target or blocked, which is why the average hovers around 49, rather than the league average shots on goal (31.4). With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 58.5 (TOR) to a worst of 43.8 (NYR), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 42.7 (NSH) to a worst of 58.4 (OTT) -- Ottawa is so bad, the next worst team is 51.7 (NJ). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game.

Slate Preview: Thursday, December 27, 2018

The Main Slate on Thursday features 13 games with all 26 teams well rested after the three-day holiday break. Only Columbus is on the front end of a back-to-back, so it's likely we'll see most of the top tier goalies starting Thursday.

The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

*All stats are projected figures based on my ranking formulas, using 2017-18 and current year statistics.

Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line.)

BOS1 vs. NJ: David Pastrnak-1 ($8,500 FD, $7,800 DK), Patrice Bergeron-1 ($7,900 FD, $7,700 DK), Brad Marchand-1 ($8,100 FD, $7,100 DK) - The return of Bergeron reunites one of the best lines in hockey, while there is a chance Bergeron struggles in his return, this matchup is just too good to ignore and you should have some exposure to BOS1 in some way or another. New Jersey is just a mess all over the place, they have four subpar defensive forward lines, a terrible group of defensemen, and they have an inexperienced goalie starting Thursday.

PIT1 vs. DET: Sidney Crosby-1 ($8,800 FD, $7,600 DK), Jake Guentzel-2 ($7,200 FD, $6,400 DK), Bryan Rust-0 ($5,700 FD, $5,700 DK) - These guys were paired up on PIT1 five games ago and have just annihilated defenses ever since, putting up eight goals and 13 assists in those five games. The most shocking aspect is the breakout of Bryan Rust who through the first 29 games of the season had only recorded a single goal, but in the past seven games has tallied EIGHT goals. Detroit is one of the worst defensive teams in the league by many metrics (51.0 DR and 9.7 HDCA) which does not pair with the offensive firepower of the Penguins (51.1 OR and 9.9 HDCF).

TB2 vs. PHI: Nikita Kucherov-1 ($8,800 FD, $7,700 DK), Brayden Point-1 ($7,600 FD, $7,100 DK), Tyler Johnson-2 ($5,900 FD, $5,700 DK) - Steven Stamkos is in play tonight as well and might even be a good mix play with Point and Kucherov, but for my money the best line stack is TB2 who has produced eight goals and 15 assists over the past five games and draw the defensively-challenged Flyers (49.4 DR and the fourth-worst penalty kill figure on the slate, with 8.8 power-play goals allowed per 60 minutes of penalty-kill time). This does not bode well for Philadelphia as Tampa is the third-best team in my offense rankings (54.8 OR) and scores a league-best figure of 11.0 power-play goals per 60 minutes of power-play time.

WAS1 vs. CAR: Alex Ovechkin-1 ($9,000 FD, $8,100 DK), Nicklas Backstrom-1 ($7,400 FD, $5,700 DK), T.J. Oshie-1 ($5,500 FD, $5,800 DK) - Carolina's stats continue to befuddle me, as on paper they are a high-power offense and shut-down defense, but a league-worst shooting percentage (6.8%) and bottom-quarter save percentage (.896) have led to a 3-8 record over their last 11 games while they have been outscored 36-25. A date with the Capitals is not an ideal way for Carolina to figure things out, so I'm betting on Ovechkin and crew Thursday.

Also in play: VGK1 vs. COL, CLS1 at NYR, BUF1 at STL, MIN1 at CHI

Value Line Stacks

VGK2 vs. COL: Paul Stastny-2 ($5,600 FD, $4,800 DK), Alex Tuch-1 ($5,000 FD, $5,900 DK), Brandon Pirri-2 ($3,300 FD, $4,300 DK) - VGK1 is definitely a higher upside play Thursday, but for the cap savings there is a lot to like about VGK2 who have three talented players playing well right now in Stastny (two goals, one assist over past five games) & Tuch (one goal, two assists over past five games), plus the recent call-up Brandon Pirri who has scored three goals with an assist in his first three games with the Golden Knights this year.

DET1 at PIT: Dylan Larkin-1 ($6,600 FD, $6,400 DK), Gustav Nyquist-1 ($6,000 FD, $5,100 DK), Justin Abdelkader-2 ($3,500 FD, $2,800 DK) - Pittsburgh has a solid penalty kill, but they are one of the worst teams in the league in defense at even strength and on the power play, where they have allowed a league-high eight short-handed goals. Enter Larkin and Nyqvist (you can ignore Abdelkader and do something different from that slot), Larkin is one of the best 5v5 and PK players in the league and is underpriced as he is averaging near a point-per-game and taking the eighth-most shots-per-game in the league (3.7) while averaging about half the possible penalty kill time that Detroit logs on a nightly basis.

VAN2 at EDM: Brock Boeser-1 ($6,500 FD, $6,000 DK), Elias Pettersson-1 ($6,100 FD, $6,100 DK), Nikolay Goldobin-1 ($3,900 FD, $3,700 DK) - I am excited about VAN2 Thursday night as they are being reunited full time with Goldobin who was a presence with Petterson/Boeser during their strong start to the season. Edmonton is down three defensemen due to injury and has no shut-down defensive lines that should offer any resistance to this talented trio who should go underowned Thursday despite decent recent production (11 goals, 18 assists over last 10 games).

Also in play: MIN2 at CHI, CAR1 at WAS

Solo Forward Options

Steven Stamkos-1 TB1 vs. PHI ($8,300 FD, $7,400 DK) - As noted above in the TB2 write-up, Tampa is in a great spot tonight and Stamkos may even draw more favorable matchups than Brayden Point.

Phil Kessel-1 PIT3 vs. DET ($7,700 FD, $6,000 DK) - Kessel should fly under the radar in ownership due to his PIT3 alignment, but Pittsburgh rarely keeps him there all game, they typically slide him in where one of the weaker top-six wingers are lined up and tonight that is Dominik Simon on PIT2 -- so while the Malkin line appears to be weak tonight with Simon and Hornqvist, a sneaky stack is Malkin/Kessel/Hornqvist as I think this group will log more time together than the standard PIT2 line.

Bo Horvat-1 VAN1 at EDM ($5,700 FD, $5,400 DK) - Horvat offers a great solo play or contrarian stack option to use with VAN2, offing a nice floor with his shot totals (19 over the past four games) to go along with two goals and two assists.

Ondrej Kase-1 ANH1 at SJ ($4,400 FD, $6,100 DK) - I'm still not sure what formula FanDuel uses for their salaries, because Kase has been great in December with six goals and five assists in 10 games. There is no reason he should still be sub-$5,000, just look at his DraftKings price tag.

Tyler Bertuzzi-2 DET2 at PIT ($3,700 FD, $3,600 DK) - Andreas Athanasiou is out with an injury so Bertuzzi will slide up to the second line alongside Frans Nielsen, and he is likely the second-best wing option Thursday for the Red Wings.

Jesper Bratt-2 NJ1 at BOS ($3,300 FD, $3,500 DK) - Although the matchup at Boston is far from ideal, Bratt will fill in on the top NJ1 line due to the absence of Taylor Hall.

Defensemen

Alexander Edler-1 VAN at EDM ($4,700 FD, $5,100 DK) - Edler is probably my favorite play on the slate Thursday as he will be leaned upon to put up a big defensive effort against the EDM1 line, so he is likely to put up 25+ minutes of ice time and offers a huge upside and high floor as he has averaged 5.5 shots/blocks over the past four games while recording a goal and three assists.

Brent Burns-1 SJ vs. ANH ($7,100 FD, $6,300 DK) - As I've mentioned before I do not like targeting a rested John Gibson, but Burns' role on the Sharks' top power-play unit and the likely increased even-strength ice time is a situation where I am willing to pay the premium to roster him.

Torey Krug-1 BOS vs. NJ ($6,100 FD, $6,000 DK) – If you are looking to get cute with the BOS1 line, consider cutting one of the forwards but make sure to include Krug as a defenseman instead. Krug has two goals and three assists in his past five games and thrives on the big power-play line when they are together.

Seth Jones-2 CLS at NYR ($5,800 FD, $6,200 DK) - Jones is one of the best overall two-way defensemen in hockey and sometimes his defensive efforts take away from his offensive game, but he consistently sees 25+ minutes of ice time, and is always in position to get his name on the scoresheet, plus he has a great floor based on shots and blocks. The matchup against the Rangers (51.3 DR) is an excellent one.

Nate Schmidt-2 VGK vs. COL ($4,300 FD, $5,000 DK) - Shea Theodore is an option as well, but Schmidt has been the better player of late with a goal, three assists and 12 shots on goal over his past three games.

John Carlson-1 WAS vs. CAR ($6,200 FD, $6,600 DK) / Michal Kempny-0 WAS vs. CAR ($3,900 FD, $4,500 DK) - Squeezing in Carlson with Ovechkin and Backstrom can be difficult, so look at Michal Kempny as an option for some cap savings.

Also in play: Victor Hedman-1 TB vs. PHI ($6,200 FD, $5,700 DK), Ryan Suter-2 MIN at CHI ($5,100 FD, $5,300 DK), Shea Theodore-1 VGK vs. COL ($4,500 FD, $4,300 DK), Ben Hutton-2 VAN at EDM ($3,800 FD, $4,100 DK)

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Jaroslav Halak BOS vs. NJ ($8,200 FD, $8,000 DK) - Halak has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2018-19 season in net so far, with a 12-5-2 record, 2.19 GAA and .930 SV%, he is likely one of the frontrunners for the Vezina Trophy to this point of the season. Currently on a three-game win streak with a 1.00 GAA and .961 SV%, Halak is in a great spot Thursday against a Taylor Hall-less New Jersey team.

Andrei Vasilevskiy TB vs. PHI ($9,100 FD, $8,400 DK) - Philadelphia actually plays better hockey on the road (3.06 goals-per-game) than at home (2.76), buti Vasilevskiy and Tampa provide one of the toughest tests in the league defensively (45.3 DR) and Vasilevskiy should be in the Vezina trophy discussion come year's end with a 12-3-2 record, 2.39 GAA and .928 SV%

Braden Holtby WAS vs. CAR ($9,000 FD, $8,300 DK) - Holtby has allowed two or fewer goals in four of his last five starts (4-1 record). Carolina offers massive save total potential in what should be a great spot for Holtby even though he allowed five goals to this same Hurricane team recently, he only allowed one goal over the last 38 minutes and recorded a shootout victory.

Jonathan Quick LA vs. ARI ($8,100 FD, $7,700 DK) - Quick has had a subpar season to say the least, but this is a "Daily" game and Thursday he is a good option with a matchup at home against a poor offensive Arizona team. Quick has also looked great in his previous two starts, winning against Winnipeg and the Sharks while compiling a 1.48 GAA and .949 SV%.

Also in play: Pekka Rinne NSH vs. DAL ($8,700 FD, $7,900 DK), Matt Murray PIT vs. DET ($8,500 FD, $8,200 DK)

GPP Punts: Collin Delia CHI vs. MIN (N/A FD, $7,100 DK)