With the sports world paused due to the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, we've decided to take a look back and redo the first round of several past NHL Entry Drafts. Each article will feature a brief summary of who the team selected at the time, and who we believe they would select now in hindsight.
Part 1 -- featuring the class of 2011, is below...
(Note: team needs are not taken into account at the time of selection)
1- Edmonton Oilers: Nikita Kucherov (F, CSKA Moscow-KHL) - Original Pick: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F, Red Deer-WHL): RNH has turned out to be a useful player, but Kucherov is literally one of the top two or three offensive players in the league. Kucherov was selected 58th overall, so it's hard to get on the Oilers for the miss here.
2- Colorado Avalanche: Johnny Gaudreau (F, Dubuque-USHL) - Original Pick: Gabriel Landeskog (F-Kitchener-OHL): Landeskog was viewed as a safe, reliable selection at the time and he's been a safe, reliable NHL player. Gaudreau was in the midst of by far (58 points in 70 games) his worst pro season prior to the stoppage, but the thought of him playing alongside Nathan MacKinnon is salivating.
3- Florida Panthers: Mark Scheifele (F, Barrie-OHL), Original Pick: Jonathan Huberdeau (F, Saint John-QMJHL): The difference between Scheifele and Huberdeau is minuscule, at best. I gave Scheifele a slight boost because he plays center while Huberdeau has spent the past several seasons on the wing.
4- New Jersey Devils: Huberdeau, Original Pick: Adam Larsson (D, Skelleftea-SEL): Larsson was viewed as the consensus top defenseman in the 2011 draft and I remember thinking the Devils were lucky to grab him where they did. However, his offensive game never developed a lick, but New Jersey was able to swindle the Oilers into trading future league MVP Taylor Hall for Larsson in a one-for-one deal.
5- New York Islanders: Mika Zibanejad (F, Djurgardens-SEL), Original Pick: Ryan Strome (F, Niagara-OHL): It's taken some time, but Zibanejad has turned into a legitimate superstar. I'd go as far as saying there's a considerable chance he ends up second on this list when all is said and done. Strome had an up-and-down career with the Isles before being dealt to Edmonton for Jordan Eberle. Oddly enough, Zibanejad and Strome are now the top two centers for the Isles' main rivals, the Rangers.
6- Ottawa Senators: Sean Couturier (F, Drummondville-QMJHL), Original Pick: Zibanejad: Couturier has turned into a much better pro than I imagined. His floor is super high because he is perennially one of the best defensive centers in the league. He's also finished with exactly 76 points in each of the past two seasons. Ottawa, of course, dealt Zibanejad (and a second-rounder) to the Rangers for Derick Brassard in what will go down as one of the worst trades in franchise history.
7- Winnipeg Jets: Landeskog , Original Pick: Scheifele: The Jets would have made out just fine here. Landeskog and Scheifele are different types of players, but both have had excellent careers to this point.
8- Philadelphia Flyers: Dougie Hamilton (D, Niagara-OHL), Original Pick: Couturier: Hamilton has already played for three NHL teams despite the fact he won't turn 27 years of age until this summer. He is also unquestionably one of the league's best offensive defensemen. His play in his own zone will never be a strength, but he's still a useful asset and prior to this season, he had been healthy throughout his career.
9- Boston Bruins: John Gibson (G, US NTDP-USHL), Original Pick: Hamilton: Tuukka Rask is one of the best goaltenders in the league and has been for more than a decade. Boston -- like most teams -- never would have spent such a high selection on a goaltender, but Gibson is the next best player on the board. He would have Vezina Trophy potential if the team in front of him in Anaheim was a bit better.
10- Minnesota Wild: Jordan Binnington (G, Owen Sound-OHL), Original Pick: Jonas Brodin (D, Farjestad-SEL): I'm fairly sure I labeled Binnington a "non-prospect" at some point within the last couple years, but he has proven me and his many doubters wrong. He led the Blues to the Stanley Cup last season and was named an All-Star this past year. He's clearly an above-average NHL starting goaltender. Brodin, on the other hand, logs big minutes but his offensive game has never come around. On the bright side, he is still on the Wild.
11- Colorado Avalanche: William Karlsson (F, Vasteras-Sweden), Original Pick: Duncan Siemens (D, Saskatoon-WHL): There were quite a few "misses" in Round 1 back in 2011, but the Siemens selection is right near the top of the list. The Avalanche were betting on Siemens improving as time went on and it simply never happened. He played all of three NHL games and didn't even play organized hockey this past season. Karlsson was a non-factor for Columbus before a move to the then-expansion Golden Knights revitalized his career.
12- Carolina Hurricanes: Rickard Rakell (F, Plymouth-OHL), Original Pick: Ryan Murphy (D, Kitchener-OHL): Murphy led all OHL defenders in goals (26) in his draft year, but his lack of size and struggles defensively ended up outweighing whatever he brought to the table offensively. Murphy spent his entire 175-game NHL run riding the shuttle back-and-forth between the AHL and NHL. He finally moved to the KHL this season. Carolina would have been much better off with Rakell, who has developed into a clear cut top-six offensive weapon for Anaheim.
13- Calgary Flames: Nugent-Hopkins, Original Pick: Sven Baertschi (F, Portland-WHL): RNH is a solid player and it speaks to the depth of this draft that there are 12 guys I would take before him. Baertschi has shown flashes at times but he's never scored more than 35 points in any single NHL campaign.
14- Dallas Stars: Oscar Klefbom (D, Farjestad-SEL), Original Pick: Jamie Oleksiak (D, Northeastern-NCAA): Dallas was enamored by Oleksiak coming into the draft and it's easy to see why. He's 6-foot-7, strong as an ox, and moves pretty well. Dallas likes him so much that they traded him to Pittsburgh in December 2017 only to reacquire him just over a year later. Oleksiak is a bottom-pairing NHL regular. Klefbom would have clearly been a better option at this point.
15- New York Rangers: J.T. Miller (F, US NTDP-USHL), Original Pick: Miller: In this scenario, the Rangers end up with the player they took originally. Viewed by most as an early second-rounder leading up to the draft, New York reached for Miller and it paid off. He played plenty of good hockey for the club before being traded to Tampa Bay. He's now in his first season with Vancouver where he has already set career-best marks in both goals (27) and points (72).
16- Buffalo Sabres: Vincent Trocheck (F, Saginaw-OHL), Original Pick: Joel Armia (Assat-Liiga): Armia was one of my favorite picks of the first round and while I still think he is a better player than he has shown to date, Buffalo would have been much better off taking Trocheck. Trocheck has struggled over the past year-plus (partly due to injury) and was surprisingly dealt from Florida to Carolina earlier this season, but he's still a versatile top-six center and those guys are hard to come by.
17- Montreal Canadiens: Phillip Danault (F, Victoriaville-QMJHL), Original Pick: Nathan Beaulieu (D, Saint John-QMJHL): Montreal may not have drafted Danault but they ended up with him years later. That's a good thing because he's developed into one of the league's more effective two-way centers. Beaulieu was one of three Saint John Sea Dogs taken in the first round. His game has never translated to the pro ranks. Beaulieu is a sixth or seventh defenseman on a good team.
18- Chicago Blackhawks: Josh Manson (D, Salmon Arm-BCHL), Original Pick: Mark McNeill (F, Prince Albert-WHL): Manson was a sixth-round selection of Anaheim in 2011 so it's not as if the 'Hawks were the only team who passed on him repeatedly. The issue for Chicago is that they compounded the problem by taking McNeil. Full disclosure - I thought he was an uber-safe selection and a lock to play in the league for a decade given his legendary work ethic and leadership skills. That never happened and McNeill spent this past season playing in Austria.
19- Edmonton Oilers: Blake Coleman (F, Indiana-USHL), Original Pick: Klefbom: Coleman is your typical overachiever. He played four mediocre seasons at Miami (Ohio) and there was no reason to believe he would turn into such a useful player. He's scored at least 20 goals in each of the past two seasons and while his offensive numbers will almost certainly plummet now that he's been traded to a much better team in Tampa, Coleman brings enough other traits -- physicality, penalty killing -- to the table to make you believe the hefty package the Lightning gave up for him was potentially worth it.
20- Phoenix Coyotes: Ryan Strome (F, Niagara-OHL), Original Pick: Connor Murphy (D, US NTDP-USHL): Strome is perhaps the most baffling case on this list. He was in the midst of what was by far his best pro season (18 goals, 59 points in 70 games) prior to the stoppage, but his shooting percentage (11.7%) is high, his advanced metrics are lousy, and he's been playing alongside one of the league's three most talented players (Artemi Panarin) all season long. He's arbitration eligible after this season and should get a nice bump up from the $3.1 million he earned this year. Regardless, he's a better player than Murphy, who's turned out to be nothing more than a depth defenseman.
21- Ottawa Senators: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (F, Gatineau-QMJHL), Original Pick: Stefan Noesen F, Plymouth-OHL): Ottawa's draft would have looked a heck of a lot better if they took Pageau here and Noesen in the fourth round where they originally drafted Pageau. Pageau scored 24 goals in 60 games for the Sens this season before being dealt to the Islanders at the deadline, as he was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in the offseason. New York quickly signed him to a five-year, $30 million deal. That's almost certainly an overpay but that's the cost of doing business these days. Noesen is a big, strong kid who has already played for four NHL teams. He's nothing more than an emergency call-up.
22- Toronto Maple Leafs: Boone Jenner (F, Oshawa-OHL), Original Pick: Tyler Biggs (F, US NTDP-USHL): Toronto's 2011 draft was one of the worst in recent memory. It began with Biggs, who never developed any feel for the pro game. Biggs was just one of two first rounders from that draft to never play an NHL game. He has spent the past few seasons in the ECHL and finished the 2019-20 campaign in Great Britain. Jenner was a second round pick of Columbus. His ceiling is limited but he's a useful piece who can move up and down a lineup.
23- Pittsburgh Penguins: Brandon Saad (F, Saginaw-OHL), Original Pick: Joe Morrow (D, Portland-WHL): Saad ends up playing for his hometown team in this scenario. He is one of the most frustrating players in the league but he's legitimately talented and obviously a better player than Morrow. Morrow was never able to hold down a full-time job at the NHL level and is now playing in the KHL.
24- Ottawa Senators: Ondrej Palat (F, Drummondville-QMJHL), Original Pick: Matt Puempel (F, Peterborough-OHL): It's remarkable that Palat was the No. 207 selection in a draft that saw 211 players picked. He began putting up points the second he turned pro and hasn't stopped since. Puempel is the NHL version of a "Quad-A" player. He's probably too good for the AHL but his one-dimensional offensive game has never resulted in success at the NHL level. He's bounced around the league and it now toiling in the Detroit system.
25- Toronto Maple Leafs: Brodin, Original Pick: Stuart Percy (D, Mississauga St. Michael's-OHL): It's strange because the type of player Brodin has turned out to be -- a steady, minute-eating, penalty killer -- is what was expected from Percy. I thought he was one of the safest picks in the draft and was shocked he wasn't able to churn out as a career as an NHL regular. Percy has played a grand total of 12 NHL games and is now playing for his fifth AHL organization.
26- Chicago Blackhawks: Larsson, Original Pick: Danault: Larsson has his uses but he was clearly over drafted and being traded straight up for Hall didn't help matters. He's tough, throws the body around and is always willing to block a shot, but his lack of offensive skill is what is most surprising to me. I expected much more when he was drafted. I'd rather have Danault at this point.
27- Tampa Bay Lightning: Vladislav Namestnikov (F, London-OHL), Original Pick: Namestnikov: Namestnikov stays with his original team. I've always been a fan. He's not the offensive force he appeared to be back in 2017-18 when he spent most of the season alongside Kucherov and Steven Stamkos before being dealt to the Rangers, but he can fill a top-six role if injuries strike and he's always been underrated defensively. He should have plenty of suitors as an unrestricted free agent this summer (or whenever free agency happens).
28- Minnesota Wild: Ryan Dzingel (F, Lincoln-USHL), Original Pick: Zack Phillips (F, Saint John-QMJHL): Phillips joins Huberdeau and Beaulieu as the third Sea Dog selected. He also joins Biggs as the second first-rounder in this draft class to have never played an NHL game. Opinions on Phillips entering the draft were all over the map. He's a gifted goal scorer but his lack of foot speed ended up torpedoing any chance he had of succeeding in North America. Phillips has played all over the world the past several years. Dzingel was the 204th selection in the draft. That means Ottawa got Pageau in Rd. 4 and Dzingel in Rd. 7. Not a bad draft class.
29- Vancouver Canucks: Andrew Shaw (F, Owen Sound-OHL), Original Pick: Nicklas Jensen (F, Oshawa-OHL): Shaw can be a useful player if he keeps his head on straight and is deployed correctly by his head coach. The biggest concern at this point is all the injuries he has dealt with over the course of his career. Jensen was never able secure a full-time role at the NHL level but he has played exceptionally well for KHL Jokerit over the past three seasons. His rights currently belong to the Rangers but are set to expire at the end of June.
30- Anaheim Ducks: Armia, Original Pick: Rakell: Armia has quietly tallied at least 12 goals in each of the past three seasons. He's big (6-foot-4, 205 pounds) and has a great set of hands. There's consistency issues here but he's talented. Obviously Rakell is the much better player at this point but Armia is a useful piece.
Just Missed
- Joel Edmundson (D)
- Nick Cousins (F)
- Matt Nieto (F)
- Scott Mayfield (D)
- Rocco Grimaldi (F)
