Best NHL PrizePicks Picks & Props for March 5: Top NHL Player Plays & Odds

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Card Overview: 4-2 on Saturday, but I needed some good fortune to get there. Still not quite finding the rhythm in this cycle, but I think it's coming soon. 

Today's card is just okay. I thought it would be better with so many games on the slate, but there are only a couple of really good plays, and the rest are just okay. Once again, I would play this slate lightly. The nice thing is, with teams starting to get eliminated from the playoffs, we'll see some changes in ice time, which should open up some opportunities for us. 

BUILDING BLOCKS

Cale Makar 25.5 vs. Edmonton Oilers - 10:00 p.m. ET (LESS) 

The Avalanche are playing Makar like they have nothing left to play for in the regular season, and that's almost true, as they have the division all but wrapped up. Yes, they want to continue to win, but they aren't going to run Makar into the ground to do it. All the proof I needed came Sunday, when even though they were trailing for much of the game, against a team right behind them in the standings, Makar failed to play over 25 minutes...and the game went to a shootout! I guess in a trail script, Makar could go over here, but I just don't think they want to push him right now in a game that doesn't mean much. 

Moritz Seider 25.25 at Florida Panthers - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE) 

I was all over "less" on Seider out of the break, but that was when his line was at 26.75. Now that his line is much lower, we can think about taking the over again. I had "less" on Seider on Sunday, and that hit, but just barely. I thought with the addition of Justin Faulk, Seider would see a slight decrease in ice time, but that wasn't the case. Even though the Red Wings were up the entire game, Seider still played over 25 minutes. I was keeping a close eye on that game, and nothing weird happened; it looked like they just made a concerted effort to get Seider on the ice. With a playoff spot in the balance, I would expect the same tonight. As long as this one stays close, Seider should go over. 

Jackson LaCombe 24.5 at Winnipeg Jets - 8:30 p.m. ET (MORE) 

The formula for LaCombe has been pretty simple lately, though I failed to catch on earlier. Here it is, 6-D and a close game, and he goes over. A blowout, he's under, 7-D and he's under, so as long as we get a tight game tonight, we should be good as Anaheim has stuck with 6-D for the past three games. Anaheim enters as a slight dog tonight, which should help our cause, as a trail script for LaCombe is even better. 

SCRIPT/LINE/INJURY DEPENDENT

Zach Werenski 26.75 at Tampa Bay Lightning - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE) 

I was on "less" yesterday with Werenski because Dante Fabbro was back in the lineup for Columbus, which should have eaten into Werenski's time, but what I didn't see happening was an injury to Erik Gudbranson, which all but guaranteed that Werenski would go over. Gudbranson is expected out tonight, and if that's the case, I'd expect Werenski to pick up more ice time. This line is high, but Werenski is used to playing a ton of minutes, and now that he's 100% again, the Blue Jackets will rely heavily on him. 

Colton Parayko 21.5 vs. New York Islanders - 7:30 p.m. ET (MORE) 

I've been waiting patiently for Parayko to get back on the ice, and I'm hoping tonight is the night. Parayko is not a high-minutes guy normally, but with the trade of Justin Faulk, there are going to be minutes to soak up.  Philip Broberg has been taking on a lot of ice time the past two games, but I'm sure the Blues want to lighten his load a little. The key here is who Parayko is paired with when he returns. If he's with Broberg, then this is a slam dunk; if he's not with Broberg or Cam Fowler, then I might not make this play, as the plan might be to ease him back into the lineup. 

Aaron Ekblad 23.5 vs. Detroit Red Wings - 7:00 p.m. ET (LESS) 

I've been skeptical of Ekblad's playing time for the past week or so, but this pick has nothing to do with that. This pick has everything to do with the return of Seth Jones. There were reports of Jones taking contact again at practice on March 5th, and while I haven't seen reports that he's back, it could happen fast. If he's back, this is a smash spot. There isn't a better play on the board...if Jones is back. Ekblad is not a high minutes guy, but he's been carrying the load lately with a lot of guys out. Jones is the high-minute guy on this defense, so when he's back, expect Ekblad's minutes to drop into the 21-22 range. This play only works if Jones is back, though.