This article is part of our Ice and Fire series.
When stars don't produce, it's maddening. Sure, you may have cashed in a lottery ticket on David Desharnais, Tomas Plekanec or David Krejci late in your draft, even snagged Martin Jones and Jake Allen while other owners drafted Sergei Bobrovsky and Semyon Varlamov, but those top picks. At least Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf seem to be getting their legs back under them after a comically bad start. Erik Karlsson has 12 assists in 14 games, but seven came in two contests, leaving just five for the other 12. This season, more than most, it seems that first-round skaters have underperformed relative to their expectations and costs.
Vexed
Seeing the names Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin on a scan of the NHL's leading scorers shouldn't surprise anyone. It's the likes of Johnny Gaudreau, David Krejci and Blake Wheeler that are a little off. All three are great players in their own rights, but to see them in Art Ross contention as the season's quarter pole approaches has some owners scratching their heads about where their high-priced talent has gone.
Benn and Seguin went in the late first rounds of most drafts, even falling close to the second in some leagues. Only Alexander Ovechkin is in the NHL's top 10 in scoring out of skaters likely taken in the first round. Through Saturday, Ovechkin sits with a solid 15 points through 14 games owning eight goals on 62 shots. Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares and
When stars don't produce, it's maddening. Sure, you may have cashed in a lottery ticket on David Desharnais, Tomas Plekanec or David Krejci late in your draft, even snagged Martin Jones and Jake Allen while other owners drafted Sergei Bobrovsky and Semyon Varlamov, but those top picks. At least Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf seem to be getting their legs back under them after a comically bad start. Erik Karlsson has 12 assists in 14 games, but seven came in two contests, leaving just five for the other 12. This season, more than most, it seems that first-round skaters have underperformed relative to their expectations and costs.
Vexed
Seeing the names Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin on a scan of the NHL's leading scorers shouldn't surprise anyone. It's the likes of Johnny Gaudreau, David Krejci and Blake Wheeler that are a little off. All three are great players in their own rights, but to see them in Art Ross contention as the season's quarter pole approaches has some owners scratching their heads about where their high-priced talent has gone.
Benn and Seguin went in the late first rounds of most drafts, even falling close to the second in some leagues. Only Alexander Ovechkin is in the NHL's top 10 in scoring out of skaters likely taken in the first round. Through Saturday, Ovechkin sits with a solid 15 points through 14 games owning eight goals on 62 shots. Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares and Evgeni Malkin are currently lagging behind the likes of Johnny Hockey, Taylor Hall and Jeff Carter, to name a few.
Crosby's seven points through 14 games are among the league's more vexing statistics. The Penguins are winning games with defense, not lighting up the scoreboards as many believed they would. The irony here is that the Penguins have long been criticized for not shoring up their own end at the cost of offensive flash, yet now they are being knocked for not scoring enough. Crosby hasn't meshed as well with Phil Kessel as many had hoped, and his minus-6 rating is rather lacking. A silver lining with Crosby is that four of his points have come on the power play. Owners need to come to terms with the fact that the Penguins are a bit more defensive-minded now; they've surrendered the second-fewest goals in the league – just 28, including the five they gave up to Calgary on Saturday. Crosby's numbers have all the indications that his numbers will bounce back: 3:42 of power-play time per game and a healthy 2.78 shots per game. His numbers should rebound, but they won't be the Art Ross level numbers to which owners are accustomed.
Evgeni Malkin can look like the best forward in the world at times and then disappear for several stretches. The man literally can take over a game when he's on, and defenders bounce off him like he's Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl. Geno has scattered 11 points through 14 games, but has just one point in his last four and only one goal in the last eight. Sure, 11 points through 14 games are not bad numbers. They're better than those of a glut of skaters in the NHL, but from a player who likely cost a first-round pick in most leagues, owners simply expect more. Malkin, like Crosby, is seeing a healthy 3:37 on the power play, but also getting some time on the penalty kill. Malkin is close to a point-per-game player in his career, so the talent is there. His shots are a little down this season, though, with a modest 33 through 14 games, and he's collected just three of his 11 points on the power play.
Both Crosby and Malkin are featured on the top power-play unit along with Phil Kessel, but it's clear that the formerly dynamic duo can still post numbers – just those more befitting a second- or third-round pick. These two are not the offensive players they used to be. The potential is still there for them to break out, but Pittsburgh is unlikely to tinker with what could be a winning formula.
Tampa Bay, too, is a vexing team at times. Along with the Canadiens and the Rangers, the Lightning were picked by many to challenge for the Eastern Conference crown. Despite boasting a potentially potent offense, the Bolts have scored one goal or fewer in six of their last eight games, including three shutouts. Future Maple Leaf Steven Stamkos, if you believe what you hear out of Toronto, sits with a modest seven goals and 10 total points on the season. Those seven goals are still good enough for fourth in the league, leaving him tied with a host of other skaters such as Joel Ward, yet it somehow seems Stammer is underachieving. His shooting percentage, 18.3, is a touch better than what he usually produces, and four power-play points aren't shabby, but the consistency simply hasn't been there for a player most people paid a first-round price to acquire.
If you want to nitpick, three of his 10 points came in an Oct. 15 win over Dallas, leaving seven in the other 15 games; he followed a four-game point drought with a point in three consecutive contests last week. Tampa Bay's power play is no secret, as they look to feed the right-handed shooting Stamkos on the left circle, often cycling the puck on the right side to open up space. Most teams have figured this out and gameplan against it, opting rather to have the Triplets line beat them. Stammer's three power-play goals are still good enough for a third-place tie with a handful of other players, but he isn't delivering as much as owners would hope. He's on pace for fewer than 40 goals, something he hasn't done since his rookie season, excluding the 2013 lockout campaign and injury-shortened 2011-12 season. Again, goal totals in the range of 35-plus for a full season are still excellent, but not what owners expect. Stamkos is too good to be this quiet for too long, but you have to wonder how much the Bolts will keep forcing the puck to their star.
As for life in Brooklyn, the Islanders have been a tad enigmatic this season, but they figure to be in the mix for the final Metropolitan Division playoff spot or one of the Eastern Conference's Wild Cards. Captain John Tavares is the only skater not named Benn, Seguin or Ovechkin taken in the first round (or early second) to be at a point-per-game pace or better. Tavares has totaled 11 points through as many games while overcoming an illness that cost him three games. He's currently riding a three-game scoreless drought, but Tavares will likely find his name on the scoresheet often. While he is on a point-per-game pace already, owners still expect a bit more from the incredibly talented center.
Waiting out your stars to find their game is an exercise in patience. Owners looking to gamble on getting a star player well below market value will be wise to inquire. Most of the players discussed above will finish with solid statistical seasons, just not worth their original price tags. The floor on most of these players is still miles better than your average player, but the ceiling always beckons.
Don't panic.
This week's fun fact: Dale Weise has eight goals. That's eight more goals than Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler and Jonathan Huberdeau combined.
Comments, questions and suggestions for future pieces are welcome, so feel free to email me.