A historic Frozen Four field is headed to Las Vegas, Nevada, for the first time ever. The four teams making the trips are the four teams with the most National Championships, combining for 33 in total. Four freshman goaltenders will also start for their teams for the first time. All four goalies played in the CHL last season, something which was against NCAA rules last year.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs. Wisconsin Badgers (5 p.m. ET)
North Dakota is making its first trip to the Frozen Four since winning the National Championship in 2016. The Badgers made their last Frozen Four trip 16 years ago, when they lost the National Championship to Boston College. These two teams have faced off three times in the NCAA tournament, with North Dakota winning each matchup.
On paper, the Badgers are this year's Cinderella story, as they were the No. 12 seed heading into the tournament while the rest of the Frozen Four teams were ranked in the top 5. The club got off to a blistering pace and rose as high as No. 2 in the polls before enduring a disastrous January that put them back on the tournament bubble. However, they bounced back by winning eight of their final 11 games, including a win against Michigan and a road sweep of Penn State. Quinn Finley has been the Badgers' best player in that stretch with seven goals and seven assists, and Gavin Morrissey is trailing closely behind (six goals, seven assists). Perhaps the biggest riser has been blueliner Luke Osburn, who has taken the No. 1 defenseman job after Logan Hensler (knee) went out for the season. Osburn is a brilliant skater who loves to jump up on offense. The Sabres' draft pick logged 26:42 and scored a key goal in the win over Michigan State. However, the biggest question mark is freshman goaltender Daniel Hauser. The WHL product had a superb start to the season but lost his grip on the starting job multiple times while also dealing with a lingering upper-body injury. Hauser posted a .902 save percentage during the regionals, and although he made some massive saves, he was far from dominant. Out of the four goalies remaining, Hauser is clearly the shakiest. Still, the Badgers have provided ample defensive support, allowing just 2.32 xGA per game over the last seven outings while adding 3.94 xGF as offensive support. Overall, this year, their 3.8 goals per game are tied with North Dakota for third in the nation.
The Fighting Hawks have been steady all season, never suffering a sweep and posting a 17-6-1 record in a daunting NCHC schedule. Perhaps their biggest liability heading into the season was goaltending, but Jan Spunar has answered the bell since taking the starting job, posting a .917 save percentage through 26 games. Spunar has stopped all 53 shots he has faced during the NCAA tournament, too. The Fighting Hawks are a physical team that is loaded with skill from top to bottom. Senior forward Ellis Rickwood leads the charge with 36 points through 34 games, while freshman Cole Reschny trails with 35. They have six players with 10-plus goals, including freshman Will Zellers and senior Dylan James. Their depth allows them to run four lines comfortably, and their high-end talent forms a lethal power play that ranks seventh in the nation (26.7 percent).
Wisconsin will provide North Dakota with its toughest test of the tournament. The Badgers showed a unique ability to control the pace against Michigan State's star-studded lineup and physical play style. We should not write that off as a fluke, considering they are 4-3-0 against Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State this year. The Fighting Hawks may be the Badgers' toughest test, too, but Jan Spunar isn't Trey Augustine, at least not yet. The Fighting Hawks will have their hands full here. Wisconsin is a nightmare of an opponent from an analytical perspective, generating loads of offensive chances while providing strong enough defense. They play well with the underdog mentality, too, and with their recent offensive surge, they can win this game even with a mediocre effort from Hauser.
Wisconsin ML (+154 DraftKings)
Over 5.5 (-122 FanDuel)
Michigan Wolverines vs. Denver Pioneers (8:30 p.m. ET)
Michigan is seeking its first National Championship since 1998, but they have made it to the Frozen Four nine times since then. This will be their fourth trip in the past five years. Denver earned a Frozen Four bid for the third straight season and the sixth time (in eight tournaments) under head coach David Carle, who already has two titles under his belt. These two teams have played each other four times in the tournament, splitting the series 2-2.
Michigan was the No. 1 overall seed heading into the tournament. They dominated Bentley in the opening round and held on for a 4-3 win over Duluth on Sunday. With a 31-7-1 record on the season, they only lost one game to a non-ranked opponent (Minnesota). They often blow teams out of the water, too, as they lead the nation with 4.6 goals per game, far ahead of Quinnipiac's 4.1, which is second on the list. Jack Ivankovic has been among the best goalies in the nation as an 18-year-old freshman, posting a .923 save percentage and a 2.13 GAA through 34 appearances. The Wolverines have 13 draft picks, and they lean heavily on their two first-rounders, Michael Hage and Will Horcoff. Hage drives the offense and has piled up 51 points, and Horcoff has demonstrated a massive improvement from his freshman season by accruing 25 goals, tied for second in the nation. Perhaps no player is more important than senior T.J. Hughes, who is undrafted but has been consistent throughout his college career, as he leads the team with 56 points and is in Hobey Baker contention.
The Pioneers haven't lost a game since January 23rd, although they went to overtime in four of those 15 games. They dominated their regional, too, beating Cornell 5-0 before quickly finishing NCHC rival Western Michigan with a 6-2 decision. Their biggest revelation has been Johnny Hicks in net. Hicks has a .958 save percentage and a 14-0-1 record this season, and he has allowed more than two goals just once this year. It's a testament to both Hicks and the Pioneers' stellar defense, which features junior Eric Pohlkamp – a Hobey Baker finalist – and junior Boston Buckberger. There isn't a team in the nation with a stronger top-two defensemen. They're a deep group that is comfortable rolling out all four lines, which shows in the fast pace of their game and on the scoresheet, as they have eight players with 10-plus goals and five players with 30-plus points.
The Pioneers can undoubtedly keep up with the Wolverines' pace. The blue lines are comparable, as the Wolverines have upperclassmen Ben Roberston, Tyler Duke and Luca Fantilli to steer the ship. The Wolverines certainly have more star power, but that has yet to affect the Pioneers, who won their last three contests against Duluth and split a series against North Dakota in January – two teams that arguably have better high-end talent than the Pioneers. I suspect both teams will be able to score in this game, but it will ultimately come down to goaltending and game plan. Hicks has been unbeatable this season, while Ivankovic has a few more young flaws in his game. The Pioneers play with a swarming pace regardless of their opponent, and coach David Carle looks up to the task once again. We're rolling with Denver in the upset.
Denver ML (+110 DraftKings)
Over 6.5 Goals (+105 DraftKings)
