When the Masters tees off on April 9, the usual suspects of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau will be the favorites at sports betting apps. Bold-faced names like Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood will be right behind them.
Augusta National history is filled with legends of the game putting on the green jacket, from Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer to Tiger Woods. But the tournament has also had its fair share of shocking winners, like Danny Willett in 2016 or Charl Schwartzel in 2011.
As the team at RotoWire.com looks to provide unique and critical insights ahead of this year's edition, we ran 100 simulations with Google's AI assistant Gemini to see how often favorites came out on top, whether Tiger can make the cut and if a LIV player can capture the green jacket.
Check out our interactive graphic below for win percentage, Tiger Watch and hot takes from the data before heading to your top golf betting operator.
| # | Golfer | Top 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 45% |
| 2 | Rory McIlroy | 34% |
| 3 | Ludvig Åberg | 28% |
| 4 | Xander Schauffele | 27% |
| 5 | Jon Rahm | 25% |
| 6 | Bryson DeChambeau | 22% |
| 7 | Collin Morikawa | 19% |
| 8 | Brooks Koepka | 18% |
| 9 | Viktor Hovland | 17% |
| 10 | Hideki Matsuyama | 15% |
AI Simulations Favor Scheffler at Augusta
No surprise here. Scheffler easily posted the most wins in our simulations, with a 20% win rate, a figure that correlates with his +350 outright odds at operators like DraftKings (find a DraftKings promo code here before the tournament tees off). Scheffler will arrive to Augusta in somehwat unique fashion. He and his wife welcomed their second child this week, leading to his WD from the Houston Open, his typical Masters tune-up.
2026 hasn't been as dominant as 2025 so far for Scheffler, but with a win at the American Express, T3 at Waste Management and T4 at Pebble Beach - coupled with his two Masters wins already - our model couldn't look past him even if he heads to Georgia with one less start than originally thought.
Can Rory Go Back-to-Back?
No golfer has gone back-to-back at the Masters since Woods in 2001 and 2002, speaking to the difficulty of retaining the green jacket for 24 months. While on the subject of difficulty, McIlroy completing the career grand slam last April was not for the faint of heart.
Rory slayed the dragon in dramatic fashion, but is he truly live to win a second Masters so soon after his first? Our model says it's far from likely, with Rory winning 13 of the 100 simulations. Still good for second place behind Scheffler, but results that equate to about his +700 outright odds at DraftKings. McIlroy's best result this season was a second place at the Genesis Invitational, whereas last year he won Pebble Beach and The Players Championship leading into The Masters.
LIV Player Form Analysis: DeChambeau, Rahm
As with any major since 2022, this Masters features past major champions whose form on LIV require deeper analysis. We're looking at you, Bryson and Rahm.
DeChambeau will arrive at Augusta - where he played alongside Rory in the final group last year - having won his past two starts at LIV Singapore and LIV South Africa (where he beat Rahm in a playoff).
Yet, Bryson's simulations didn't quite align with his place on the odds board (around +1000, behind only Scheffler and McIlroy). Our model had Bryson winning just 7% of the time, behind the likes of Aberg (11%), Schauffele (9%) and his LIV counterpart in Rahm (8%). A bit surprising considering his recent winning ways and past two results at Augusta (T6 in 2024, T5 last year).
The simulations seem to agree with Data Golf, which have Rahm as the second-best golfer right now (behind Scheffler, ahead of McIlroy) and 7 spots ahead of Bryson (with Schauffele, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood and Russell Henley in between).
Suffice it to say, Bryson's recent two wins on LIV have not moved the needle in a significant way in the eyes of Gemini for this year's Masters. If there's a LIV golfer to back with a BetMGM bonus code, look to Rahm (who currently tops LIV's season-long standings with a win and three runner-ups).
Notable Contenders Who Simulation Didn't Favor
Players with less than 4% win probability in our model: Tommy Fleetwood, Chris Gotterup, Justin Rose, Cameron Young, Patrick Reed and Matt Fitzpatrick.
What To Expect From Tiger Woods at The Masters
In blunt terms, not too much. Woods has not played an official event since the 2024 Open Championship (missed the cut). He has not played four consecutive rounds since the 2024 Masters (finished 60th). Even at his TGL appearance earlier this week, he acknowledged the difficulty of his many injuries on his 50-year-old body.
Should he play this year's Masters, the interest will be in if the 5x Masters champ can make it to the weekend. Tiger hasn't missed a cut at Augusta since 1996. It's a course he knows like the back of his hand. But does Gemini think that streak stays alive through 2026? It's almost 50-50, with our model giving the 15-time major champion a 51% chance to play the weekend.
In terms of contending - it's hard to see. Woods came away with zero wins in our simulations and a mere 2% top-5 rate. Playing the weekend will be a victory in itself for Tiger and his fans.
AI Hot Takes On 2026 Masters
So Gemini likes Scheffler to win the Masters, of course. But what about some surprises that our model turned out? Take for example Jackson Herrington.
The 20-year old finished runner-up to Mason Howell last summer at the U.S. Amateur, which got him into his first Masters. Typically to make the cut as an amateur is viewed as a great accomplishment. Our model took it a bit further, with Herrington actually posting a top 5 finish in 12% of our simulations. Wouldn't be a bad weekend at all for the Tennessee Volunteer. In 2023, amateur Sam Bennett posted a T16. Ryan Gerard was a similar story, with the one-time PGA Tour winner also garnering some top 5's via the model.
What Our Simulations Tell Us About The 2026 Masters
If 100 runs of Gemini have made anything clear, it's that Scheffler remains the man to beat at Augusta National. A 20% win rate and 45% top-5 rate dwarf the rest of the field, and his track record in the green jacket speaks for itself. Behind him, Rory's quest to go back-to-back will be one of the defining storylines of the week. Our model respects his game but suggests the history books are working against him. And for those eyeing a LIV player, the simulations point to Rahm over Bryson as the smarter play, despite DeChambeau's recent hot streak.
Beyond the odds board, the 2026 Masters has no shortage of theatre. Tiger Woods -- at 50 years old and without a competitive round since 2024 -- faces a coin-flip to simply make the weekend, yet the five-time champion walking the Augusta pines will captivate the sports world regardless.
Meanwhile, 20-year-old Jackson Herrington will make his Masters debut after his run to the U.S. Amateur final, and our model thinks a top-5 finish isn't out of the question.
Augusta has always rewarded bold play and big moments, and this year's field is loaded with both.
Whether you're backing Scheffler at the top of the board, fading Bryson's LIV form or taking a flier on a longshot, fire up your preferred sportsbook before the first tee shot on April 9. The azaleas are blooming, the stakes are set and the green jacket is up for grabs.
