Fantasy Preview and Picks for LIV Golf Hong Kong
What a statement that Joaquin Niemann made by winning at Jeddah by four shots and for the second time through the first three events of the season. Combine that with four straight top-five finishes around the globe outside of LIV Golf and it was not hard to see why he has been granted a special invitation to both the Masters and PGA Championship.
Niemann got the better of two Stinger GC players in Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel who completed the podium in Jeddah. Bryson DeChambeau shot a final-round 62 to leap up into solo fourth and help Crushers GC to the team title. Last season's team champions hold an 18-point lead after three events this season over Smash GC, who took their second straight podium in Jeddah after winning the team championship in Las Vegas.
The focus now shifts to LIV Golf Hong Kong where the league makes their debut at the Hong Kong Golf Club. This course is no stranger to high level golf as it has hosted the Hong Kong Open since 1959. The event has seen some illustrious winners through the years and is now part of the International Series on the Asian Tour in which the leading player on the Order of Merit will earn a spot into the next LIV Golf season. The Hong Kong Open is scheduled for November again in 2024 after Ben Campbell held off Cameron Smith by one shot last year.
The Hong Kong Golf Club is a short course at just over 6,700 yards, but there is certainly still quite a bit of trouble out there if you aren't careful. Water will come into play on nearly half the holes and there are plenty of trees lining the fairways if players get off line. There will be a premium on accuracy off of the tee this week and will give everyone a chance to compete with the longer hitters. Approach play will be crucial as well with most of the second shots being hit from similar places. While the greens are larger than you would think for a course this short, they feature a fair amount of slope and are very well bunkered. You can leave yourself with a tough two-putt or tricky chip shot quite easily with a poor approach.
After some hot temperatures for the early week festivities, it should cool off to the mid-to-high 60s for the three tournament rounds. There's a chance we could see some rain, but it should be dry for the most part out there. We are projected to see some of the highest winds of the week for the final two rounds of the tournament. While this short golf course will well protected by trees, the wind could still certainly play a factor down the stretch of this championship.
The average winning score of the last 10 Hong Kong Open's is 14.6 under-par. March does tends to be a slightly cooler in Hong Kong than November. Combine that with one less round and 10- or 11-under-par seems like a realistic expectation for a winning score for the inaugural LIV Golf Hong Kong.
Captains (2)
Smith sits just a middling 20th in the LIV Golf standings after finishes of T8-T15-T41 through the first three events. That being said, this is a perfect spot for him to show why he is one of the best players in the League. As mentioned earlier, Smith finished second on this golf course last fall and always seems to play well in this part of the world. The Aussie should be helped out by not having to hit so many drivers and he remains atop the league in putts per GIR.
Hoping to avoid some of the chalk options this week for this category, Oosthuizen makes a fine choice as your Captain in Hong Kong. He is coming off a strong T2 showing at Jeddah where he was second in driving accuracy and third in scrambling. Keeping the ball in play and scrambling at a high rate around these tricky green complexes will go a long way. The South African scored a pair of wins in South Africa and Mauritius in December and he will be hoping to add another one here.
Non-Captains (5)
It's hard to leave Gooch off this category most weeks. The 2023 LIV Golf Champion has started 2024 consistent going T15-T2-T6 through the first three events. Gooch also has seen this course before having played in the Hong Kong Open in November. Not only is Gooch a strong ball-striker at third in driving accuracy and 15th in GIR percentage, but he also leads the league in scrambling.
If fairways and greens are the objective, you'd be hard pressed to find a man more up to the task than Casey. The Englishman is fourth in driving accuracy and leads in GIR percentage this season. Casey has also had an underrated short game throughout his career and he ranks 10th in scrambling early this season after consistent finishes of T11-T5-T29 through the first three events.
McDowell seems to be fitting in nicely at Smash GC having already notched a top-five this season in Las Vegas. He also played the last three International Series events of 2023 and logged top-15 results in all of them, including a T12 in Hong Kong. McDowell ranks top-10 in both driving accuracy and GIR percentage so far this season and we know he can get hot on the greens.
Hatton is about as safe of a roster add as you can get this week. He has finished T8-T12-T15 in his first three LIV Golf events and has finished top-15 in seven of his last eight starts overall. Hatton checks every box, he keeps the ball in play, has tremendous control with the irons, an underrated short game and can go pour in putts with the best of them when he is clicking.
I doubt most people would guess that Munoz is fourth so far this season in birdies per round. He has shown that he has the firepower to score that coveted first LIV Golf win, but he needs to minimize the mistakes. The good news is that ball-striking hasn't been the issue as he ranks top-12 in both driving accuracy and GIR percentage. Munoz has gone T13-T9-T22 to begin 2024.
Teams (2)
Stinger GC
The South African team had a poor outing in Las Vegas, but more than made up for it with a runner-up finish in Jeddah. Hong Kong sets up well for all their players because they all feature strong short games and know how to play positional golf. They have combined for four wins and five other top-three finishes in the last four months around the globe.
Smash GC
This team has been revamped this season and very well might be the ones to beat at the end of the year. Smash GC took home the team title at Las Vegas and was back on the podium at Jeddah. The iron play is what really stands out here as all four members rank in the top-15 this season in GIR percentage. Gooch and McDowell have been mentioned above, but Jason Kokrak also has finished top-six in the last two events and you know Brooks Koepka wants to break the tie for most LIV Golf wins with his fourth career title.
Sleepers (4)
Top 15 the last two LIV Golf events and also notched a top 15 in Hong Kong last fall. T8 in birdies per round this season and won the IRS Prima Malaysian Open a couple weeks ago.
Quietly finished top-15 in seven of his last eight LIV Golf events. Top-15 in both driving accuracy and GIR percentage this season.
Coming off back-to-back top-25 finishes. Ranks 11th in driving accuracy and fifth in putts per GIR this season.
Ranks third in GIR percentage this season. Racked up three straight finishes of T27-or-better, one of which at the International Series Oman.
Pick to Win
Even at age 41 Oosthuizen is still showing that he can get it done anywhere. His last six starts overall look like this: Win-Win-T8-50th-2nd-T2. Oosthuizen is due for his first LIV Golf win. He posts 11-under-par to beat out Gooch and Hatton by one stroke.
