This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Course: Port Royal Golf Course (6,828 yards, par 71)
Purse: $6,500,000
Winner: $1,170,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
This is the definition of an opportunity week. After the strongest field of the fall schedule last week at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina, we now get the weakest field at Bermuda. There will be just one player in the top 50 of the OWGR and that would be Ireland's Seamus Power. That being said, this tournament will still award the same amount of points as THE CJ CUP a week ago and the winner will be exempt through 2025 and earn a spot at this season's Masters, PLAYERS, and PGA Championship. There are plenty of young Korn Ferry Tour graduates eager to make a statement and lock up that job security, but there's also a host of veterans hoping their experience can come in handy to finally get back in the win column.
Port Royal Golf Course offers some of the most stunning views that can be seen all year on Tour. The players all say that the key to playing well is being in control of your golf ball, both distance-wise and trajectory. Like most island golf courses, the main the defense is the elements. We're going to get the full taste of that this week with storms in the forecast for each of the four tournament rounds and winds consistently blowing 15-to-20 miles per hour. Hopefully lightening will stay away and we avoid delays for this 132-man field where we will see a return of the standard 36-hole cut after two limited field, no-cut events in Japan and South Carolina.
Recent Champions
2021 - Lucas Herbert (-15)
2020 - Brian Gay (-15)
2019 - Brendon Todd (-24)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- SG: Putting
- Driving Accuracy
Champion's Profile
Port Royal Golf Course may be the longest course on the island of Bermuda, but at 6,828 yards it falls just shy of Pebble Beach (6,816 yards) for being the shortest course on the 2022-23 PGA Tour schedule. It's not about the length on the card at Port Royal, however. This is a course that has very high shot values. The wind and conditions will determine how you have to play each of these holes. The hole can play a 100 yards different from one day to another just based on where the wind is coming in off the Atlantic Ocean. Driving accuracy will be a key this week to keep the ball in play. The rough here is not overly long, but it can get sticky and lead to a lot of unpredictability on the shot. The greens are pretty average in size, but the windy conditions will make them play smaller and lead to extra importance on approach play. The putting surfaces will be running around 10.5 on the Stimpmeter, which will be a stark contrast to Congaree last week. You're going to have to make some birdies to win and do that you need to be rolling in putts. That's a big reason why a lot of the top finishers here over the years have performed very on the greens.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Russell Knox ($11,200)
Knox has already racked up a pair of top-25's this season and we're heading to a place that should be one of the best course fits for him on the entire PGA Tour. Knox is one of the shorter hitters on Tour, but he hits a ton of fairways and GIR's. Last season he ranked 19th in driving accuracy and fourth in GIR percentage. The Scot always plays great in the wind and went T11-T16-T12 the last three years at Port Royal.
Justin Lower ($10,800)
Lower has really picked his game up over the last few months. Over his last 10 starts, Lower has racked up three top-10s and seven top-30s. So far this season he is gaining in every measured category and is fifth in birdie average. Lower was in position to challenge going into the final round at Port Royal last season, but he faded with a 73 to finish T17.
Aaron Rai ($10,400)
Rai continues to be one of the busiest players around playing tournaments across both top tours. Early in the season on the PGA Tour he ranks top-35 in SG: Approach, driving accuracy, GIR percentage and 17th in birdie average. The birdie rate is well up this season, but last season he put together a very similar collection of strong ball-striking statistics.
Robby Shelton ($10,200)
Shelton has had a really good start to the season with a pair of top-25s in three starts. That came after a torrid summer on the Korn Ferry Tour where he notched a pair of victories and a runner-up. He led the KFT last season in putts per GIR and was pretty a pretty strong driver of the golf ball as well. This is a confident player who is at a very enticing price given the strength of this field.
Longer Shots with Value
Chesson Hadley ($9,600)
After a strong summer, Hadley hasn't started off the fall quite as hot, but Port Royal presents a good opportunity for him to get back on track. Hadley is gaining strokes on approach in six of his last seven tournaments and gaining with the putter in eight of his last ten. That combination will be good for making birdies at Port Royal, where he had a T16 in his only prior start.
Sam Ryder ($8,800)
Ryder is trending in the right direction to find success at Port Royal. Over his last six measured strokes gained tournaments, Ryder has positive strokes gained on approach in five of those and positive strokes gained on the greens in five of those as well. Those are encouraging numbers this week where his lack of distance will not be an issue.
Ryan Armour ($8,800)
There aren't a lot of places on the PGA Tour that suit a guy like Armour's game, but Port Royal is definitely one of them. Last season he was the most accurate driver on Tour. He was also 46th in SG: Off-the-Tee despite his obvious lack of distance. Armour also hits a lot of GIR's even with having longer clubs into greens. He has a pair of top-10s at Port Royal in three career starts and is coming off a recent top-15 at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Brice Garnett ($8,500)
Garnett has quietly been one of the best players over the last handful of years on these exposed resort-type courses on the ocean. In his career at Puntacana, Mayakoba, Puerto Rico and Bermuda, Garnett has notched a win among eight top-15 finishes. He fits the profile as a short hitter but accurate ball striker and is starting to make the weekend more consistently.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is definitely a week where those that really do some digging are going to be at an advantage given the lack of recognizable names to the average viewer. You're looking for players that hit a lot of fairways and greens in regulation that can get hot with the putter. That will lead to lots of birdies in the expected conditions at a course like Port Royal. Typically a lot of those players have had previous good finishes in Bermuda in the past or courses that profile out pretty similarly. I think this is a week where you want to avoid reaching into the $11,000+ range too many times because under about $8,500 is just a potluck of journey men who are going to struggle to have an exemption into double digit tournaments this season.
