This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL
Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $4M
FedEx Cup Points: 700 to the Winner
Location: Orlando, Fla.
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Yardage: 7,466
Par: 72
2023 champion: Kurt Kitayama
Tournament Preview
It's a bit hard to fathom that this will be the eighth Arnold Palmer Invitational without Arnold Palmer, who passed away in September 2016. It's also a bit hard to fathom that this will be the fourth Signature Event of the PGA Tour season, and we're barely into March. Connecting those two dots, we can't help but wonder what Palmer, the man who brought golf to the people, who became the first golf superstar of the TV age, would think of the current state of golf.
Rival tours are going at it in cutthroat fashion and billions of dollars have been pouring into the sport, all in the name of greed, er, we mean, growing the game. This changing landscape will have a profound effect on Palmer's beloved Bay Hill this week. As a Signature Event, it certainly is befitting of the King, who was as responsible as anyone for helping the sport grow to the masses in the late 1950s and '60s. The thing is, this tournament -- and all Signature Events -- are not open to the masses. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Just like with Tiger Woods' Genesis Invitational last month, the API will have a huge purse with not a lot of golfers to share the wealth. There's a field of only 69, the vast majority of whom will make the cut. Just like at Riviera, the top-50 and ties plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead will stick around for the weekend. Palmer of course is not around to voice his opinion of this new setup. Woods, being a current player, was limited in what he could and perhaps wanted to say. In June, the third and final Signature Event under this setup will be played, and we'll eagerly await Jack Nicklaus' thoughts on what's become of his Memorial tournament. We shouldn't expect anything earthshattering, though Nicklaus is better positioned to speak freely than Woods.
All that said, there's a golf tournament to be played, so here we go.
Almost all the top golfers on the PGA Tour will be playing this week. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas are the headliners. Woods, the eight-time Bay Hill champion, will not partake. There is hope that he will fulfill his play-once-a-month plan next week at THE PLAYERS Championship. Woods played Riviera on a sponsor's invite. The four such invitees this week are Nicolai Hojgaard, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott and Webb Simpson. Scott and Simpson are Policy Board members and, while Scott is still a top-50 player, Simpson is far from it, eliciting accusations of another instance of golf's good 'ol boy network in action.
There's also the Aon Next 10 golfers and the Aon Swing 5 golfers, helping the Tour save a little face amid accusations -- again, accusations! There so many in golf these days -- of favoring their version of the top 1 percent.
The only eligible big name who won't be playing this week is Tony Finau.
Bay Hill is traditionally among the hardest courses the golfers will see all year, ranking in the top-10 six of the past seven years. Last year, it ranked 10th, with Kurt Kitayama emerging as a one-shot winner over 2018 champion McIlroy and Harris English at 9-under. Two years ago, Scheffler won at 5-under. Before that came two golfers now with LIV Golf -- Bryson DeChambeau at 11-under and Tyrrell Hatton at a mere 4-under, though in Hatton's victory the weather was more of a factor than usual.
At 7,400-plus yards, Bay Hill is kind of long, but it is a par-72. There are some very long holes. All four par-3s are 200-plus yards and there are five par-4s over 450, including the famed 458-yard 18th. That means long iron play is important. That also tells us something about the par-5s. Three of the four are under 575 yards, one a mere 511, all are gettable in normal conditions and the golfers probably must make a big dent in them if they hope to win, though that wasn't the case last year when Kitayama bogeyed two of them and double-bogeyed another. In 2021, DeChambeau shot 10-under on the par-5s and just 1-under on the rest of the course.
They widened the fairways in 2015, so golfers can really let fly off the tee, though water is in play on half the holes. The greens are large at an average of 7,500 square feet and fast at 12 on the Stimpmeter, and most of the golfers will continue to do their happy dance on their beloved bermudagrass surface.
Since and extremely high percentage of the field will make the cut, that gives you a much greater chance to get all six of your guys through to the weekend (but of course the same goes for your opponents). That lends support to an imbalanced lineup approach because so many $6000s will make the cut. So if you want to get two or even three of the top guys in your lineup, don't fear dipping down low to fill it out.
Weather has been a four-letter word for the Tour this year, with last week's Cognizant Classic forced to a Monday finish. This week's forecast isn't pristine, either. Temperatures will warm, maybe even hot near 90 some days. There's a small chance of rain every day till Sunday, when there's a bigger chance of showers. The wind should be blowing all four days.
API Interesting Factoids: Bay Hill marks the beginning of the Open Qualifying Series in the United States. This year, the small field has affected that. In past years, the top three finishers not already exempt would get berths. This year, just one is available for entry into the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon. Can't imagine Palmer would be happy with that. The three other PGA Tour events with Open berths available will be the RBC Canadian Open, the Memorial and the John Deere Classic.
API Fun Factoids: Gary Koch, formerly with NBC, was a two-time winner, in 1977 and 1984, and Paul Azinger, also formerly with NBC, won in 1988. Koch still holds the final-round scoring record of 63 set in 1984. Palmer himself won the tournament in 1971, when it was called the Florida Citrus Invitational and played at Rio Pinar Country Club. Palmer hauled in all of $30,000 for his one-stroke win over Julius Boros.
Key Stats to Winning at Bay Hill
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Par-3 Efficiency 200-225
Past Champions
2023 - Kurt Kitayama
2022 - Scottie Scheffler
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton
2019 - Francesco Molinari
2018 - Rory McIlroy
2017 - Marc Leishman
2016 - Jason Day
2015 - Matt Every
2014 - Matt Every
Champion's Profile
In the past seven years, the winning score exceeded 12-under only once -- McIlroy at 18-under. Leishman was 11-under, Molinari at 12, Hatton at 4, DeChambeau at 11, Scheffler at 5 and Kitayama at 9. Kitayama had a pretty good template for victory -- he ranked tied for first in fairways hit and greens in regulation at about 70 percent for each, and also ranked second in SG: Putting. And this was with Kitayama pretty much butchering the par-5s. He scored only 4-under on those 16 holes. But he played the par-3s in 3-under, which is outstanding. We mentioned above how DeChambeau got 10 of his 11-under strokes on the par-5s. Well get this: Scheffler shot 11-under on the par-5s and won at 5-under, meaning he played the par-3s and 4s in 6-over! As easy as the par-5s are, that's how hard the par-3s are, all 200 yards or more. Scheffler played the par-3s at even, which is very good. The year before, DeChambeau beat Lee Westwood by one stroke, but he shot 4-under on the par-3s compared to Westwood's 2-over. This year, the over/under on the winning score per golfodds.com was set at 277.5 -- 10.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Rory McIlroy - $10,600 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +850)
McIlroy hasn't exactly lit it up in the early goings of the PGA Tour season. But him performing well at Bay Hill is one of the surest things in golf. He finished top-10 six of the past seven years, including a runner-up last year and a victory in 2018. Even though McIlroy didn't finish in the top 20 last week at the Cognizant, he led the field in SG: Off-the-Tee -- a good sign for this week.
Viktor Hovland - $9,900 (+1400)
Hovland closed 2023 with four consecutive top-5s, two of which were wins (if we're counting low-72 at the TOUR Championship). However, three starts into 2024, he has nothing better than a T19. At least that result came at Riviera, where the required skill set overlaps in many ways with what's needed at Bay Hill. Hovland was runner-up here to Scheffler in 2022 and tied for 10th last year.
Tier 2 Values
Max Homa - $9,200 (+2500)
Homa has played five times in 2024 and has yet to record a top-10. Heck, he barely finished top-10 in The Match last week and there were only four players. But he does have three top-16s, indicating he is close. And when you combine that with a good Bay Hill record -- four top-25s in four career starts, with one top-10 -- we're comfortable jumping on board.
Tommy Fleetwood - $8,800 (+2500)
Fleetwood already has a win on his ledger in 2024 -- yes, we know it didn't come on the PGA Tour. It came in Dubai. Bay Hill does seem like a track where that elusive first Tour win could come for the Englishman. Fleetwood has a best of T3 here in 2019, with two other top-10s. He's also coming off a tie for 10th at Riviera.
Cameron Young - $8,700 (+2500)
Young is another non-winner on Tour, though of course he's played far fewer tournaments than Fleetwood. He has finished 13th and 10th in his two visits to Bay Hill. What moved the needle for us on Young came last week at PGA National, where he ranked sixth in greens in regulation and 13th in SG: Putting, which normally isn't his strong suit.
Matt Fitzpatrick - $8,600 (+2800)
Like McIlroy, Fitzpatrick has been so-so for him so far in 2024 (three top-25s, no top-10s), but has almost been automatic at Bay Hill. He followed his runner-up here in 2019 with three more consecutive top-10s before "fading" to 14th last year. Fitzpatrick has been losing strokes on approach this season and is ranked 114th on Tour, which is fairly alarming. But we won't be fully alarmed until we see a bad Fitzpatrick outing at Bay Hill.
Tier 3 Values
Chris Kirk - $7,800 (+5500)
Kirk is playing so well tee-to-green, only to be dragged down by his putter. He is ranked top-20 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach and greens in regulation. Pretty stout. Yet he's 129th in SG: Putting. Since winning the season-opening Sentry, Kirk has cracked the top-20 just once in five starts. But he has had good success at Bay Hill, with four top-20s plus a top-10 and top-5 -- both of those coming in the past three years.
Byeong Hun An - $7,600 (+4500)
An playing in Signature Events in 2024 was so far-fetched to even think of a year ago. But here we are. Not only that, An has finished fourth at the Sentry and 16th at Riviera. And he's coming off a T21 at the Cognizant. In other words, he's playing very well. An is quite familiar with Bay Hill, with seven starts through the years. He has a top-10 and a top-15 to his credit.
Harris English - $7,300 (+5000)
As soon as we saw English's name and price, we recalled being high on him last month at the Genesis at a similar price. He finished seventh. We can envision another top-10 this week, especially since he was runner-up here a year ago. English has another top-10 and two other top-20s so far in 2024. He landed at No. 8 overall in our model and we are all over that.
Long-Shot Values
Min Woo Lee - $6,600 (+3500)
Here is one of those instances where the DFS price and betting odds are in complete disagreement. Lee, who is coming off a co-runner-up last week at the Cognizant, is in DFS long-shot territory. But he has shorter odds than the likes of Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark and all but 15 golfers. Now, you could think his odds are out of whack. And maybe they are a little short. But we think the DFS is more off, and this is one of the big steals of the week. Don't be fooled by Lee's missed cuts the past two years at Bay Hill. He's a far better golfer now.
Erik van Rooyen - $6,600 (+6000)
It was almost a year ago -- 10 months to be exact -- that van Rooyen began a brutal stretch of seven straight missed cuts to fall outside the top 200 in the world. He's now ranked No. 59 and playing in his third Signature Event of the year. The South African has obviously turned things around in a big way, winning in Mexico late last year. Back in Mexico a couple of weeks back, he tied for eighth, then shared runner-up last week at the Cognizant. van Rooyen is ranked top-25 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee and Putting, plus greens in regulation and SG: Total.
Adam Svensson - $6,400 (+10000)
It has not been a great start to the year for the Canadian. But the one bright spot came at the Signature Event at Riviera, where he tied for 10th. Svensson has never been a great putter, but so far in 2024 he's been especially bad. Otherwise, he's ranked top-50 in SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green. He tied for 24th at Bay Hill a year ago.
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