This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-110) vs. New England Patriots
Interesting game here. Someone asked following the Patriots/Bills game what the line for this game would be, and I put it at Colts -3, although I doubted books would hang that number and thought -2.5 was more likely as a result. Looks like it opened Colts -1.5 or -2 and has been trending in the Colts' direction all week, so the number is probably right around where it should be. That being said, I do think the Colts rate a nice edge here. While Patriots coach Bill Belichick generally excels at shutting down his opponent's best option, it's hard to see anyone slowing down Jonathan Taylor, especially with the Colts fully committed to him nowadays. He's so explosive that with just one crease or one step on the defense, he can immediately take one 50 yards to the house (which is why I prefer his combo prop, giving you access to all his touches). Just on volume, it's hard to shut a player like that down. The Colts also have a fine, play-making defense and a nice home-field advantage. For their part, the Colts may have the best defense that rookie QB Mac Jones has faced since Week 3 when he lost to the Buccaneers (hard to take much from the Bills game given the weather). I like the Colts laying less than the field goal at home.
Player Props
Jonathan Taylor over 19.5 receiving yards (-105)
As mentioned above, I prefer Jonathan Taylor combo props (rushing + receiving), but that option isn't available here. With that being said, this week I prefer his receiving prop to his rushing prop for a couple of reasons. First off, his rushing total is listed a few yards higher here than at other locations (always be sure and shop around for the best number). Secondly, I suspect the Colts will mix things up a little and try to get Taylor more involved in the passing game (where he's highly capable, given an opportunity) as a way to counteract whatever defensive measures Belichick employs trying to stop Taylor on the ground. Going a little further, it's notable that the Patriots defense ranks only 17th vs. running backs in fantasy points allowed, a ranking that surely doesn't come from their ground efforts, as the Patriots have allowed a league-low six rushing touchdowns. That would seem to indicate that running backs are finding some success through the air vs. the Patriots. And as is always the case with Taylor, he can break off 20 yards on a single play, so we don't even necessarily need much volume. With these factors taken into account, I think his receiving prop is preferable to his rushing prop this week, although you can never go too far wrong with Taylor rushing yards, as he consistently passes the century mark on the ground. As such, Taylor continues to offer value on his yardage props, even as they have continued to rise throughout the year.
Diontae Johnson over 6.5 receptions (-130)
Diontae is rarely a bad play at this number, as he gets 10+ targets pretty much every week, and has covered this number in 4-of-6 home starts this year. I would guess he might see a little more action than normal this week, as the Titans have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the league, and are much more vulnerable through the air. It also may help that Chase Claypool is coming off a big game, perhaps leading to a little more attention from the defense. Worth mentioning as well that this is likely Ben Roethlisberger's next-to-last start in Pittsburgh, so there should be some added incentive for all involved.
James Robinson over 81.5 rushing yards (-115)
Robinson has been getting a lot of hype this week, and rightly so. Reportedly, Jaguars players (including Trevor Lawrence) had been complaining that Robinson wasn't getting the ball enough, whereas the recently-fired Urban Meyer had blamed his offensive coordinator (also the new interim coach Darrell Bevell). Just based on that, you would expect a big uptick in Robinson's usage this week, but there's also a nice quote from Bevell stating, "James Robinson is our starting running back. He will be played as such." So that provides some confirmation on that point. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are facing the Texans this week, who have allowed the most rushing yards in the league. The Texans defense also ranks next-to-last in both rushing touchdowns and yards-per-carry, so this is indeed a very nice rushing matchup. With Robinson figuring to be highly active versus arguably the worst run defense in the league, and with the Jaguars possibly playing with a lead for a change, this seems like a very attainable number.
Tee Higgins over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
As mentioned the last couple of weeks, Higgins remains undervalued despite being a hugely important piece of the Bengals' passing attack. What's more, he's really come on recently, now having gone over 100 receiving yards in three consecutive games. For the moment at least, he appears to have taken over the #1 spot in the pecking order from Ja'Marr Chase (they act roughly as a #1 and #1A), and of course, the Bengals have enough weapons so that it's difficult for anyone to double-team him. Expecting another fine effort from the upwardly-mobile second year receiver.
Davante Adams over 90.5 receiving yards (-105)
Nice spot for Adams, as the Ravens came into this week having allowed the second-most passing yards in the league, including a hefty 7.8 yards per attempt. Take note, the Ravens are in the habit of allowing big games to wide receivers. Take a look at some of the recent performances they've allowed:
5-90 to Donovan Peoples-Jones in Week 14
8-105-2 to Diontae Johnson in Week 13
6-111 to Jarvis Landry in Week 12
5-121-1 to Darnell Mooney in Week 11
Things are looking pretty good for Davante Adams this week, in my opinion.
Taysom Hill over 43.5 rushing yards (-120)
Since taking over as the Saints starter a couple of weeks ago, Hill has recorded 11 rushing attempts in both games, rushing for 101 and 73 yards, respectively. It's just impossible not to like this number based on those results, especially when Hill is dealing with a finger injury that makes it difficult to throw. I should also mention (though it's not available here), Hill's anytime touchdown is offering big value once again, listed as high as +240. In a similar vein, you might also consider Cam Newton's anytime touchdown, as he has scored a rushing touchdown in all four games as the Panthers starter, and is currently being offered at +175. Clearly, both players are huge threats to score on the ground and are listed much too high at those kinds of prices.
