This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was a bloodbath! Roughly two thirds of pools got wiped out on the Steelers, Ravens, Buccaneers and Cardinals.
Let's take a look at Week 11:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TITANS | Texans | 49.2% | 437.5 | 81.40 | 9.15 |
| BROWNS | Lions | 19.8% | 430 | 81.13 | 3.74 |
| BUCCANEERS | Giants | 11.5% | 500 | 83.33 | 1.92 |
| Patriots | FALCONS | 5.9% | 275 | 73.33 | 1.57 |
| 49ers | JAGUARS | 5.1% | 265 | 72.60 | 1.40 |
| Ravens | BEARS | 2.6% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.76 |
| CHARGERS | Steelers | 2.2% | 200 | 66.67 | 0.73 |
| PANTHERS | Team | 1.0% | 168.5 | 62.76 | 0.37 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 0.8% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.31 |
| BILLS | Colts | 0.7% | 305 | 75.31 | 0.17 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are three top choices on the board, the Titans, Browns and Buccaneers, and it should come down to who has which team left in your pool. Based on those polling numbers, the order would be Bucs, Browns and Titans, respectively, but this late in the year, the data is noisy, so be sure to check individually.
My Picks
1. Cleveland Browns
The Browns got destroyed by the Patriots last week, but they head home and face a winless Lions team that just played five hard quarters in Pittsburgh. I give the Browns an 88 percent chance to win this game.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have lost two in a row, so they should be focused, but the Giants should be nearly healthy on offense after the bye, and they generally show up at least.
Last week was a bloodbath! Roughly two thirds of pools got wiped out on the Steelers, Ravens, Buccaneers and Cardinals.
Let's take a look at Week 11:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TITANS | Texans | 49.2% | 437.5 | 81.40 | 9.15 |
| BROWNS | Lions | 19.8% | 430 | 81.13 | 3.74 |
| BUCCANEERS | Giants | 11.5% | 500 | 83.33 | 1.92 |
| Patriots | FALCONS | 5.9% | 275 | 73.33 | 1.57 |
| 49ers | JAGUARS | 5.1% | 265 | 72.60 | 1.40 |
| Ravens | BEARS | 2.6% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.76 |
| CHARGERS | Steelers | 2.2% | 200 | 66.67 | 0.73 |
| PANTHERS | Team | 1.0% | 168.5 | 62.76 | 0.37 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 0.8% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.31 |
| BILLS | Colts | 0.7% | 305 | 75.31 | 0.17 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are three top choices on the board, the Titans, Browns and Buccaneers, and it should come down to who has which team left in your pool. Based on those polling numbers, the order would be Bucs, Browns and Titans, respectively, but this late in the year, the data is noisy, so be sure to check individually.
My Picks
1. Cleveland Browns
The Browns got destroyed by the Patriots last week, but they head home and face a winless Lions team that just played five hard quarters in Pittsburgh. I give the Browns an 88 percent chance to win this game.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have lost two in a row, so they should be focused, but the Giants should be nearly healthy on offense after the bye, and they generally show up at least. I give the Buccaneers a 78 percent chance to win this game.
3. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, while the Texans are coming off a bye and are not the doormat they were with Davis Mills under center. I give the Titans a 75 percent chance to win this game.
4. New England Patriots
The Patriots are in 2001 mode with a no-name team and young quarterback that's finding its stride. I think the Falcons will be focused off a bad loss to Dallas, but they don't have enough firepower. I give the Patriots a 72 percent chance to win this game.
5. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are strong on both sides of the ball, but the Colts are too, and Indy is desperate to stay in the playoff race. I give the Bills a 69 percent chance to win this game.
6. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers crushed the Rams Monday night, but this is a short-week road game, and the Jaguars, terrible though they are, have played better defensively of late. I give the 49ers a 69-percent chance to win this game.
7. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have played better of late, and getting Tua Tagovailoa back should help too against a weak, Joe Flacco-led Jets team. I give the Dolphins a 69 percent chance to win this game.
8. Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton wasn't good last year, but he's likely to be such an upgrade over Sam Darnold it could make the whole team better. I give the Panthers a 68 percent chance to win this game.
9. Baltimore Ravens
I don't trust the Ravens defense, and Justin Fields might have turned a corner. But Baltimore's offense is good, they're coming off a bye and better coached. I give the Ravens a 67 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Los Angeles Chargers -- The Steelers defense is stout, and the Chargers have not played well the last month. I'd stay away.
