This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
New England Patriots 
at Denver Broncos 
Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for NFL Week 16
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After squeaking by the Steelers in Week 14, the Pats were right back to their losing ways in Week 15 despite playing the defending-champion Chiefs competitively in a 27-17 defeat. At 3-11, the Patriots are one of three AFC teams eliminated from playoff contention and are facing increasing questions about whether Bill Belichick will still be coaching the team next year.
The Broncos are continuing to play well on most weeks down the stretch behind their own marquee head coach in Sean Payton, but Week 15 was an exception. Denver took a 42-17 shellacking from the Lions last Saturday night that dropped its record to 7-7 and leaves it firmly in the quagmire of an AFC wild-card race that has an abundance of teams in it with three games to play.
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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Betting Odds for NFL Week 16
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Broncos -350 (BetMGM Sportsbook) / Patriots +300 (PointsBet Sportsbook)
Point spread: Broncos -7 (PointsBet Sportsbook) / Patriots +7.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 35 points (BetMGM Sportsbook) / Under 35.5 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Broncos have always been favorites in this game since the line first opened in the summer, but their projected advantage has only grown, which is unsurprising considering how both teams' seasons have gone. A number that was once just -2 in favor of Denver, but that number has progressively been bet up to 7.5 in recent days.
The projected total has been going in the opposite direction, also unsurprising given the Patriots' abysmal offense. The number was already low when it first came out in the summer (41), and it dipped all the way down to 34 on multiple occasions this week before being bet up to 35.5 as of Friday morning.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Betting Picks This Week
The Broncos' stumble in Week 15 was naturally very untimely, but it hasn't derailed Denver's chances of getting into the postseason yet. That means we should certainly see a highly motivated Broncos squad on Christmas Eve, irrespective of what happens earlier in the day Sunday.
Denver hasn't set the league on fire offensively by any stretch in its first year under Payton's tutelage. However, there's no question that as presently constituted, the Broncos have the superior offensive cast behind Russell Wilson, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Javonte Williams. New England's Bailey Zappe-led air attack has had some moments, but it remains highly inconsistent.
New England's ground attack would normally be in a premium spot to have one of its better games in this spot, but even against Denver's highly porous run defense, it may not be fully able to capitalize with Rhamondre Stevenson once again out with an ankle injury.
On the other side, Wilson and his aforementioned pass-catching weapons will likely have the heaviest burden Sunday night, as the Pats have been near impossible to run against. New England is allowing an NFL-low 76.3 rushing yards per road game at a minuscule 2.9 yards per carry, so Williams, who already comes in averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per tote, could be rendered pretty useless early.
The combination of what will likely be a largely one-dimensional Broncos offense and a typically hapless Patriots attack should lead to an even lower-scoring game than the projected total already predicts, especially with Denver having shown some improvement on defense as the season has unfolded.
Patriots at Broncos Best Bets: Under 35 points (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Prediction
Broncos 17, Patriots 13
The Broncos are no offensive powerhouse, but they look like the 2007 version of Bill Belichick's squad next to these current Patriots. Denver will have to likely get most of its production through the air considering how good New England has been against the run, but behind Wilson and his weapons, they should have enough to muster a low-scoring victory.
