On Target: More Than Just The Looks

On Target: More Than Just The Looks

This article is part of our On Target series.

I understand what time of year it is, but can anyone please tell me why everyone still feels the need to do their best Jim Mora impression every time they hear the word 'playoffs'? Seriously. So tired, so overused and frankly, it's actually less funny than a reprise of Dennis Green's "They are who we thought they were." Surely we can do better, can't we?

But you're not here to listen to me complain about overused jokes, are you? You want to talk receivers and yardage, targets and receptions, touchdowns and...wait for it...playoffs! Fantasy playoffs, that is. For most leagues, the playoffs began in Week 14 and should carry over for the next two weeks. Lineup decisions are more important than ever and making the right choices could mean the difference between celebrating in the winner's circle and sitting alone on Sunday anxiously awaiting your fantasy baseball draft. So let's not waste any more time and get to this week's target leaders.

Top Targets for Week 14

Player NamePosTeamYardsTDPass AttTargetsRecptRZTgtsRZTgt%Catch %Target %
Brandon MarshallWRCHI1601531910150.0%52.6%35.8%
Calvin JohnsonWRDET118045131000.0%76.9%28.9%
Jeremy MaclinWRPHI104151139240.0%69.2%25.5%
Josh GordonWRCLE86030128444.4%66.7%40.0%
Jason AvantWRPHI133051127240.0%58.3%23.5%
Steve Smith

I understand what time of year it is, but can anyone please tell me why everyone still feels the need to do their best Jim Mora impression every time they hear the word 'playoffs'? Seriously. So tired, so overused and frankly, it's actually less funny than a reprise of Dennis Green's "They are who we thought they were." Surely we can do better, can't we?

But you're not here to listen to me complain about overused jokes, are you? You want to talk receivers and yardage, targets and receptions, touchdowns and...wait for it...playoffs! Fantasy playoffs, that is. For most leagues, the playoffs began in Week 14 and should carry over for the next two weeks. Lineup decisions are more important than ever and making the right choices could mean the difference between celebrating in the winner's circle and sitting alone on Sunday anxiously awaiting your fantasy baseball draft. So let's not waste any more time and get to this week's target leaders.

Top Targets for Week 14

Player NamePosTeamYardsTDPass AttTargetsRecptRZTgtsRZTgt%Catch %Target %
Brandon MarshallWRCHI1601531910150.0%52.6%35.8%
Calvin JohnsonWRDET118045131000.0%76.9%28.9%
Jeremy MaclinWRPHI104151139240.0%69.2%25.5%
Josh GordonWRCLE86030128444.4%66.7%40.0%
Jason AvantWRPHI133051127240.0%58.3%23.5%
Steve SmithWRCAR109035127120.0%58.3%34.3%
Justin BlackmonWRJAX5704312600.0%50.0%27.9%
Roddy WhiteWRATL117149119222.2%81.8%22.4%
Michael CrabtreeWRSF93023119266.7%81.8%47.8%
Aaron HernandezTENE58236118266.7%72.7%30.6%
Mike WallaceWRPIT11224211700.0%63.6%26.2%
Danario AlexanderWRSD88241117125.0%63.6%26.8%
Julio JonesWRATL66149115222.2%45.5%22.4%
Larry FitzgeraldWRARI203911100.0%9.1%28.2%
Andre JohnsonWRHOU9503610800.0%80.0%27.8%
Rob HouslerTEARI3603910700.0%70.0%25.6%
Vincent JacksonWRTB131134106125.0%60.0%29.4%
Reggie WayneWRIND64134106120.0%60.0%29.4%
Jimmy GrahamTENO56043105225.0%50.0%23.3%
Miles AustinWRDAL46043104133.3%40.0%23.3%
Kevin ElliotWRJAX3804310300.0%30.0%23.3%
Chris GivensWRSTL25039103125.0%30.0%25.6%
Tony SchefflerTEDET20145103150.0%30.0%22.2%

As expected, especially come fantasy playoff time, a number of the usual suspects remain on this list. They are your go-to guys and should be in your lineup each and every week, regardless of the match-up. You should be relying on them just as their quarterbacks are. Will we see a bad game every now and then? Of course, but the good, most definitely, outweighs the bad.

As for the outliers...

Please remember that the Eagles production this week had as much to do with the opponent being Tampa Bay as it did the Eagles themselves. Being the new number one in town, Jeremy Maclin will likely be seen here in the coming weeks, but it's hard to imagine Jason Avant not being interchangeable with Riley Cooper or some other fill-in wideout. A match-up with the Bengals pass defense next week should hammer this point home.

Josh Gordon saw double-digit targets for just the second time this season and yet still failed to produce double-digit fantasy points (standard league scoring) for the fifth time in his last six games. You might be able to sneak by with him next week when the Browns face the Redskins, but after that, it gets a little more complicated with road games in Denver and Pittsburgh.

With Cecil Shorts out with a concussion, Justin Blackmon saw a major increase in targets again this week. Regardless of the matchup, he'll probably continue to see that many looks if Shorts remains out. However, if Shorts is healthy, you can probably chop that target number in half. And you can probably forget all about Kevin Elliot if Shorts returns.

New favorite target Danario Alexander should no longer be viewed as an outlier. He has appeared here in three of the last four weeks and is now averaging 10 targets, just over six catches, 90 yards and one touchdown per game in that span. In fact, he has out-produced incumbent Malcom Floyd in everything from targets to catches to yardage to touchdowns to target percentage. Alexander is the clear-cut number one on the Chargers and should be started in all formats, even with match-ups against Carolina and the Jets next.

For the record, this was the Aaron Hernandez everyone thought they were drafting when they went reaching too high back in August. In the last two games, he's seen 24 targets and has come away with 16 catches for 155 yards and two touchdowns. You can expect more of the same in the coming weeks. It may be a little tougher against San Francisco next week, but with match-ups against Jacksonville and Miami to finish the year, things are looking pretty sweet.

I think you can expect more of the same from Tony Scheffler who is actually lining up in the slot these days as opposed to his usual tight end spot. Since Matthew Stafford has receivers like Mike Thomas and Brian Robieskie at his disposal, he likes to stick with what he knows, and that means more for Scheffler and Megatron.

Finally, a moment of silence for all those who made that last-minute switch to Chris Givens this week. I don't know who you benched, but I'm willing to bet that the move did not work out in your favor. It's not like he didn't see the targets, because as you can see he did. It just comes down to reliability and he simply hasn't proven his worth throughout the year. No consistency means little reliability.

No onto the overall...

Targets Percentage Leaderboard

Player NamePosTeamYardsTDPass AttTargetsRecptRZTgtsRZTgt%Catch %Target %
Brandon MarshallWRCHI134294071571011640.0%64.3%38.6%
Reggie WayneWRIND12204537163941527.8%57.7%30.4%
A.J. GreenWRCIN115110447134791933.9%59.0%30.0%
Steve JohnsonWRBUF7765407117611529.4%52.1%28.7%
Steve SmithWRCAR9992394112601120.4%53.6%28.4%
Wes WelkerWRNE11164500142951621.9%66.9%28.4%
Dwayne BoweWRKC801340611459412.1%51.8%28.1%
Michael CrabtreeWRSF76153469366718.4%71.0%26.9%
Andre JohnsonWRHOU1209345412282512.5%67.2%26.9%
Victor CruzWRNYG10049474127761721.5%59.8%26.8%
Brian HartlineWRMIA9251415111621122.0%55.9%26.7%
Vincent JacksonWRTB11458423113561627.1%49.6%26.7%
Larry FitzgeraldWRARI6524504134571829.0%42.5%26.6%
Calvin JohnsonWRDET15465592157961415.9%61.1%26.5%
Davone BessWRMIA778141510561510.0%58.1%25.3%
Jason WittenTEDAL8801536124921116.9%74.2%23.1%
Roddy WhiteWRATL11405511118771621.3%65.3%23.1%
Demaryius ThomasWRDEN11978483110741418.9%67.3%22.8%
Anquan BoldinWRBAL82844519958820.0%58.6%22.0%
Mike WilliamsWRTB736742392461322.0%50.0%21.7%
Sidney RiceWRSEA658734174451023.3%60.8%21.7%
Mike WallaceWRPIT7288481104591320.6%56.7%21.6%
Percy HarvinWRMIN6773401856259.6%72.9%21.2%
Greg OlsenTECAR691539483541120.4%65.1%21.1%
Torrey SmithWRBAL75374519543615.0%45.3%21.1%
Justin BlackmonWRJAX61434599645612.5%46.9%20.9%
Jeremy KerleyWRNYJ72824048452818.6%61.9%20.8%
Tony GonzalezTEATL8317511106811520.0%76.4%20.7%
Julio JonesWRATL9977511105631722.7%60.0%20.5%
Randall CobbWRGB77774439171712.3%78.0%20.5%
Kendall WrightWRTEN555447397591322.4%60.8%20.5%
Dez BryantWRDAL10289536109751218.5%68.8%20.3%
Donnie AveryWRIND7063537109521120.4%47.7%20.3%
Eric DeckerWRDEN790848398642027.0%65.3%20.3%
Marques ColstonWRNO8898540106651923.2%61.3%19.6%
Brandon LloydWRNE650450097571317.8%58.8%19.4%
Kyle RudolphTEMIN412840177451528.8%58.4%19.2%
Hakeem NicksWRNYG652347490501721.5%55.6%19.0%
Owen DanielsTEHOU62264548652820.0%60.5%18.9%
Jimmy GrahamTENO710854099641315.9%64.6%18.3%
Miles AustinWRDAL819553698551218.5%56.1%18.3%
Cecil ShortsWRJAX824745983431020.8%51.8%18.1%
Andre RobertsWRARI67555049153711.3%58.2%18.1%
Jeremy MaclinWRPHI646550090531225.0%58.9%18.0%
Jermaine GreshamTECIN636544780551119.6%68.8%17.9%
Malcom FloydWRSD7755466835400.0%65.1%17.8%
Heath MillerTEPIT679748185612031.7%71.8%17.7%
Antonio BrownWRPIT5922481855100.0%60.0%17.7%
DeSean JacksonWRPHI70025008845816.7%51.1%17.6%
Denarius MooreWROAK678653593421319.1%45.2%17.4%
Dennis PittaTEBAL488545177501127.5%64.9%17.1%
Danny AmendolaWRSTL576243373511022.2%69.9%16.9%
Brandon MyersTEOAK728453590701319.1%77.8%16.8%
James JonesWRGB562944374461322.8%62.2%16.7%
Josh MorganWRWAS42913626042511.6%70.0%16.6%
Donald JonesWRBUF443440767411223.5%61.2%16.5%
Golden TateWRSEA492734156371023.3%66.1%16.4%
Jacob TammeTEDEN4732483794968.1%62.0%16.4%
Lance MooreWRNO848454088531113.4%60.2%16.3%
Nate WashingtonWRTEN64844737639712.1%51.3%16.1%
Kenny BrittWRTEN520347376401017.2%52.6%16.1%

The return of Jake Locker to the Tennessee lineup has been a downer for Chris Johnson owners, but given the fact that he hasn't thrown the ball fewer than 35 times in each of his last three games, we're seeing a boon for the Titans receivers. It's taken nearly all season long, but Kenny Britt and Nate Washington have both managed to find themselves on the TPL this week. As the Titans try to finish out the season with respectability, you can bet that the two of them, along with Kendall Wright, will continue to see a high number of targets each week.

Word on the street says that Dez Bryant is 50/50 to play again this season. If that's really the case, then you can expect to see Miles Austin's target percentage get a boost, but more importantly, Jason Witten's red zone looks should increase.

With Dwayne Bowe likely headed for IR with a rib injury, you can probably expect Dexter McCluster's target percentage to increase – he's been on the TPL a few times before – and look for Terrance Copper to see more work. However, I don't see either having much relevance in fantasy, since the Chiefs will likely lean on the running game still.

Owners of Brandon Marshall are probably disturbed by the possibility of going through the fantasy playoffs without Jay Cutler under center, but even when the Chicago's quarterback was out earlier, Marshall still saw the bulk of the targets from Jason Campbell.

And finally, let's review some of the number twos we've been watching as they attempt to close the gap in target percentage with their team's top wide receiver...

As mentioned before, Danario Alexander has actually surpassed Malcom Floyd in target percentage over the last five weeks. While he hasn't shown up here yet due to missing the first eight games of the season, he's still the new number one in San Diego.

Eric Decker continues to hover around the 20-percent mark but remains firmly behind Demaryius Thomas. While Decker saw an increase in targets this week, he still hasn't seen double-digit looks since Week 9.

Miami's Davone Bess continues to close the gap between him and Brian Hartline and has now seen more targets than Hartline three times in the last four games. Unfortunately, neither receiver gets a whole lot of red zone looks, as the Fins don't get to spend a whole lot of time there, but with upcoming match-ups against Jacksonville, Buffalo and New England, Bess just might have a little flex appeal.

Mike Williams still makes for a solid number two, but Vincent Jackson has a stranglehold on being Josh Freeman's favorite target. Yes, last week, Williams saw more looks, but the overall target percentage is where the truth lies.

Just Missing the Cut This Week: Martellus Bennett (16.0%), Brent Celek (16.0%), Scott Chandler (16.0%), Vernon Davis (15.9%), Chris Givens (15.7%), Josh Gordon (15.6%), Andrew Hawkins (15.4%)

TPL Risers to Monitor: Jeremy Maclin, Justin Blackmon, Michael Crabtree
TPL Fallers to Monitor: Marques Colston, Jacob Tamme, Andre Roberts

Week 14 Matchup to Watch: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints – The last time these two teams squared off, Drew Brees and Josh Freeman combined for 797 passing yards and seven touchdowns. The Saints give up an average of 285 yards per game through the air, while the number is 312 per for the Bucs. This is a dream match-up for the fantasy playoffs, so if you've got any of the primary receivers from this game on your team, you better make sure they are active this week.

Potential Week 14 Breakouts: Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Kerley, Ben Watson
Potential Week 14 Busts: Wes Welker, Steve Johnson, Tony Gonzalez

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Have a question or need some advice from Howard Bender? Follow @rotobuzzguy on Twitter, or feel free to e-mail him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Howard Bender
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. For more from him, you can find his personal musings on his blog RotobuzzGuy.com or follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy. For questions, thoughts or comments you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.
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