On Target: More Than Just The Looks

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Updated on December 4, 2012 5:59PM EST

It was another big week for passing here in the always-crucial and highly pivotal Week 13, as eight of the top ten non-QB scorers in standard play (14 of the top 20) were wide receivers and tight ends. Despite reports of inclement weather in many areas, which was supposed to inhibit passing, the skies stayed relatively clear and plenty of quarterbacks were chucking the rock around as if running backs didn't even exist. In fact, eight quarterbacks threw the ball 40 or more times while an additional nine had 35 or more passing attempts. That's the highest we've seen since Week 3, when passing yardage was off the charts. So let's take a look at where all of these, or at least most of these, passes landed.

Top Targets for Week 13

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	171	1	46	20	13	1	16.7%	65.0%	43.5%
Wes Welker	WR	NE	103	1	40	18	12	4	57.1%	66.7%	45.0%
Brandon Myers	TE	OAK	130	1	54	15	14	1	25.0%	93.3%	27.8%
Chris Givens	WR	STL	92	0	39	14	11	0	0.0%	78.6%	35.9%
Brandon Marshall	WR	CHI	165	0	26	14	10	0	0.0%	71.4%	53.8%
Donnie Avery	WR	IND	91	2	54	14	5	4	57.1%	35.7%	25.9%
Jacob Tamme	TE	DEN	89	0	38	13	9	0	0.0%	69.2%	34.2%
A.J. Green	WR	CIN	85	0	39	13	9	2	28.6%

Top Targets for Week 13

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	171	1	46	20	13	1	16.7%	65.0%	43.5%
Wes Welker	WR	NE	103	1	40	18	12	4	57.1%	66.7%	45.0%
Brandon Myers	TE	OAK	130	1	54	15	14	1	25.0%	93.3%	27.8%
Chris Givens	WR	STL	92	0	39	14	11	0	0.0%	78.6%	35.9%
Brandon Marshall	WR	CHI	165	0	26	14	10	0	0.0%	71.4%	53.8%
Donnie Avery	WR	IND	91	2	54	14	5	4	57.1%	35.7%	25.9%
Jacob Tamme	TE	DEN	89	0	38	13	9	0	0.0%	69.2%	34.2%
A.J. Green	WR	CIN	85	0	39	13	9	2	28.6%	69.2%	33.3%
Aaron Hernandez	TE	NE	97	0	40	13	8	2	28.6%	61.5%	32.5%
Cecil Shorts	WR	JAX	77	1	41	12	7	2	33.3%	58.3%	29.3%
T.Y. Hilton	WR	IND	100	0	54	12	6	0	0.0%	50.0%	22.2%
Mike Williams	WR	TB	93	1	39	12	6	2	40.0%	50.0%	30.8%
Anquan Boldin	WR	BAL	81	1	34	12	5	2	66.7%	41.7%	35.3%
Jared Cook	TE	TEN	51	0	45	12	4	2	50.0%	33.3%	26.7%
Pierre Garcon	WR	WAS	106	1	21	11	8	3	100.0%	72.7%	52.4%
Lance Moore	WR	NO	123	0	50	11	7	1	25.0%	63.6%	22.0%
Michael Crabtree	WR	SF	101	0	32	11	7	0	0.0%	63.6%	34.4%
Marques Colston	WR	NO	71	0	50	11	6	0	0.0%	54.5%	22.0%
Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	99	2	38	10	8	3	60.0%	80.0%	26.3%
Danario Alexander	WR	SD	102	0	48	10	6	1	25.0%	60.0%	20.8%
Kendall Wright	WR	TEN	78	0	45	10	6	0	0.0%	60.0%	22.2%
Brian Hartline	WR	MIA	84	0	29	10	5	1	33.3%	50.0%	34.5%
Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	58	0	36	10	5	0	0.0%	50.0%	27.8%
Hakeem Nicks	WR	NYG	43	0	33	10	5	1	33.3%	50.0%	30.3%
Juron Criner	WR	OAK	26	0	54	10	4	1	25.0%	40.0%	18.5%
Owen Daniels	TE	HOU	43	0	35	10	3	1	50.0%	30.0%	28.6%
Michael Floyd	WR	ARI	22	0	31	10	2	0	0.0%	20.0%	32.3%

One of the things that is paramount to your success, particularly now during fantasy playoff time, is reliability and it's nice to see so many familiar names this week. Some, like Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall, we've seen all year, while others, like Cecil Shorts, T.Y. Hilton and Danario Alexander, we've seen fairly consistently over the last few weeks. These are the guys you should be starting each and every week as you move through the playoffs, rather than taking a shot on some outlier who, potentially, could put up 20 points in one week and zero the next. It's all about reliability at this time of year.

And speaking of some of the outliers...

Chris Givens actually made one appearance here back when Danny Amendola first went down, but even then, it was Brandon Gibson who was seeing the majority of targets. Well now, with Amendola trudging around in a walking boot and Gibson seeing just three targets with no catches over his last two games, it would appear that Givens is the new golden boy in St. Louis. He's certainly not a number one or number two guy, but with his strong deep-play ability, his upside is perfect for a WR3 spot.

Safe to say that Pierre Garcon is ready to be back in your starting lineup each week? Absolutely. Especially with the way RG3 looks for him regularly, as well as him seeing all of the red zone looks this week.

Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme has now seen 20 targets over his last two games and is finally starting to look like a decent option again. He started the year seeing plenty thrown his way, but tapered off as Peyton Manning was finding Eric Decker and Joel Dreesen instead. He could be worth a start in a favorable match-up, but be careful, as it could just be a matter of time before Peyton starts focusing on Decker and Dreesen again.

After weeks of sitting out due to injury, Antonio Brown makes his way back up the Targets Leaderboard thanks to Charlie Batch's strongest game in what seems like a bazillion years. Even so, monitor the situation before making any rash decisions, because Batch isn't going to bathe in the Fountain of Youth before each game. Also, with reports of Ben Roethlisberger's return in Week 14, Batch could be heading back to the sidelines. Though Brown has done hardly any endzone dancing this year, he could return as a strong PPR option when Big Ben is back under center.

Juron Criner? Really? With all the talent at wide receiver, Carson Palmer is picking Criner as his preferred target? I know the weather was supposed to be a disaster and the Raiders were gearing up for a much shorter passing game, but 10 targets for a relative no-name is pretty strong. However, once Oakland's coaches have a look at Criner's catch rate, he just might get phased right back out.

And speaking of a poor catch rate, will this be the last time we see Michael Floyd's name listed here (two catches on 10 targets)? I know the wind at Met Life Stadium can be a bit treacherous and I'm sure Ryan Lindley's overall accuracy has little to be desired, but really…? Just two catches out of a possible 10? You can only blame so much on the QB and the wind.

Now let's look at the overall...

Targets Percentage Leaderboard

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Brandon Marshall	WR	CHI	1182	8	354	138	91	15	39.5%	65.9%	39.0%
A.J. Green	WR	CIN	1107	10	414	126	76	18	33.3%	60.3%	30.4%
Reggie Wayne	WR	IND	1156	3	503	153	88	14	28.6%	57.5%	30.4%
Steve Johnson	WR	BUF	705	5	374	109	55	14	29.2%	50.5%	29.1%
Dwayne Bowe	WR	KC	731	3	385	112	57	4	14.8%	50.9%	29.1%
Wes Welker	WR	NE	1064	4	464	133	92	15	21.4%	69.2%	28.7%
Steve Smith	WR	CAR	890	2	359	100	53	10	20.4%	53.0%	27.9%
Brian Hartline	WR	MIA	891	1	382	103	60	11	26.2%	58.3%	27.0%
Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	883	8	439	118	68	15	22.1%	57.6%	26.9%
Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	1114	3	418	112	74	5	13.2%	66.1%	26.8%
Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	1014	7	389	103	50	15	27.3%	48.5%	26.5%
Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	650	4	465	123	56	18	29.0%	45.5%	26.5%
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	1428	5	547	144	86	14	16.3%	59.7%	26.3%
Davone Bess	WR	MIA	728	1	382	97	56	4	9.5%	57.7%	25.4%
Michael Crabtree	WR	SF	668	5	323	82	57	5	14.3%	69.5%	25.4%
Jason Witten	TE	DAL	818	1	493	120	88	11	17.7%	73.3%	24.3%
Roddy White	WR	ATL	1023	4	462	107	68	14	21.2%	63.6%	23.2%
Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	1114	8	447	103	69	13	19.7%	67.0%	23.0%
Anquan Boldin	WR	BAL	750	2	430	96	55	7	19.4%	57.3%	22.3%
Percy Harvin	WR	MIN	677	3	384	85	62	5	9.8%	72.9%	22.1%
Mike Williams	WR	TB	718	6	389	85	43	11	20.0%	50.6%	21.9%
Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	636	4	359	78	50	10	20.4%	64.1%	21.7%
Sidney Rice	WR	SEA	623	7	319	69	43	9	19.1%	62.3%	21.6%
Torrey Smith	WR	BAL	732	7	430	92	42	6	16.7%	45.7%	21.4%
Mike Wallace	WR	PIT	718	6	439	93	52	13	22.8%	55.9%	21.2%
Tony Gonzalez	TE	ATL	770	7	462	97	73	13	19.7%	75.3%	21.0%
Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	978	8	493	103	71	11	17.7%	68.9%	20.9%
Marques Colston	WR	NO	828	8	497	102	61	19	25.7%	59.8%	20.5%
Julio Jones	WR	ATL	931	6	462	94	58	15	22.7%	61.7%	20.3%
Jeremy Kerley	WR	NYJ	701	2	385	78	48	8	17.8%	61.5%	20.3%
Justin Blackmon	WR	JAX	557	3	416	84	39	6	12.8%	46.4%	20.2%
Kendall Wright	WR	TEN	516	4	438	88	54	12	22.6%	61.4%	20.1%
Randall Cobb	WR	GB	675	7	419	84	64	7	13.0%	76.2%	20.0%
Cecil Shorts	WR	JAX	824	7	416	83	43	10	21.3%	51.8%	20.0%
Eric Decker	WR	DEN	702	8	447	89	56	18	27.3%	62.9%	19.9%
Donnie Avery	WR	IND	675	3	503	100	49	10	20.4%	49.0%	19.9%
Owen Daniels	TE	HOU	598	6	418	83	50	8	21.1%	60.2%	19.9%
Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	412	8	384	75	45	15	29.4%	60.0%	19.5%
Hakeem Nicks	WR	NYG	585	2	439	84	46	14	20.6%	54.8%	19.1%
Brandon Lloyd	WR	NE	561	3	464	88	50	13	18.6%	56.8%	19.0%
Danny Amendola	WR	STL	576	2	394	73	51	10	24.4%	69.9%	18.5%
Andre Roberts	WR	ARI	639	5	465	86	50	7	11.3%	58.1%	18.5%
Brandon Pettigrew	TE	DET	556	3	547	99	57	12	14.0%	57.6%	18.1%
Jimmy Graham	TE	NO	654	8	497	89	59	11	14.9%	66.3%	17.9%
Miles Austin	WR	DAL	773	5	493	88	51	11	17.7%	58.0%	17.8%
Malcom Floyd	WR	SD	765	4	424	75	51	0	0.0%	68.0%	17.7%
Jermaine Gresham	TE	CIN	593	5	414	73	51	10	18.5%	69.9%	17.6%
Brent Celek	TE	PHI	601	1	449	79	50	10	23.3%	63.3%	17.6%
Brandon Myers	TE	OAK	721	4	505	88	69	12	18.8%	78.4%	17.4%
Heath Miller	TE	PIT	613	7	439	76	56	19	33.3%	73.7%	17.3%
Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	557	1	439	76	47	0	0.0%	61.8%	17.3%
Brandon LaFell	WR	CAR	577	4	359	62	34	6	12.2%	54.8%	17.3%
Denarius Moore	WR	OAK	635	6	505	87	38	13	20.3%	43.7%	17.2%
Jeremy Maclin	WR	PHI	542	4	449	77	44	10	23.3%	57.1%	17.1%
Lance Moore	WR	NO	822	4	497	84	52	10	13.5%	61.9%	16.9%
Jacob Tamme	TE	DEN	449	2	447	75	47	5	7.6%	62.7%	16.8%
Josh Morgan	WR	WAS	399	0	334	56	39	4	10.0%	69.6%	16.8%
Golden Tate	WR	SEA	486	7	319	53	35	9	19.1%	66.0%	16.6%
Donald Jones	WR	BUF	410	4	374	62	38	11	22.9%	61.3%	16.6%
Dennis Pitta	TE	BAL	442	4	430	71	45	10	27.8%	63.4%	16.5%

Backing up the notion of reliability, it just goes to show that you can't get too disgruntled after one of your prime receivers has a couple of off weeks. It's definitely a pain, but it certainly doesn't make a guy droppable unless you're in an eight-team league where everyone has crazy-good depth. Case in point: Brian Hartline. Last week, I noted the fact that Davone Bess had been closing the target percentage gap between him and Hartline over the last few weeks, only to see Ryan Tannehill go back to what he is most comfortable with: throwing the ball to Hartline. His 10 targets moves him back into the top 10 in overall target percentage, and should that continue, he should be back in the top 20 in PPR scoring in no time.

After a three-week lull, it looks like Tampa Bay's Mike Williams is back on track with Josh Freeman, as he saw a season-high 11 targets this week and came away with double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) for the first time since Week 9. Obviously Vincent Jackson is still the go-to guy for the Bucs, but Williams has been a solid number two for most of the season and was starting to close the gap in target percentage until his slump. He should continue to see similar results to his Week 13 performance, with favorable match-ups against Philadelphia, New Orleans and St. Louis coming up over the next three weeks.

And speaking of number twos closing the gap on number ones with respect to target percentage, what has happened to Eric Decker recently. A nod to all of you who swore that Decker would never surpass Demaryius Thomas, but I never thought it would separate this much by the end of Week 13. Maybe it's the type of coverage the Broncos are facing, maybe it's the play calling or maybe Decker said something derogatory about Peyton's momma, but whatever it is, he's just not getting the looks anymore. As I said above with respect to Jacob Tamme, who finally returns to the TPL this week, perhaps the two will rekindle their on-field relationship, but until they do, Decker is certainly no longer a must-start as he drops down the list here.

Sometimes, certain changes in a team's receiving pecking order can be tough to see when looking at an overall leaderboard and that's what's happened in San Diego. If you've noticed, Malcom Floyd has seen a steady drop down the TPL over the last month, but because we're looking at pass attempts from the entire season in our calculations, the target percentage of Danario Alexander doesn't come close to cracking the top 60. However, over the last four weeks, Alexander's target percentage is at 22.4% while Floyd's sits at 15.5% and that difference is showing up in receptions, yardage, touchdowns and fantasy points. Thus, be sure when making your lineup decisions that you're looking at current situations in addition to overall results.

Another name you won't see here but is certainly on the rise is Green Bay's Greg Jennings, who saw a team-high eight targets this week. With the Packers offensive line starting to wither here in the closing weeks of the season, it looks like reliability is where Aaron Rodgers is looking, and after all these years, that reliability sits with Jennings. Also, with Jordy Nelson out, Jennings should start to see a whole lot more work, which may come at the expense of targets for Randall Cobb and James Jones.

Just Missing the Cut This Week:James Jones (16.5%), Vernon Davis (16.4%), Mario Manningham (16.4%), Scott Chandler (16.0%), Martellus Bennett (15.5%)

TPL Risers to Monitor:Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, Antonio Brown
TPL Fallers to Monitor:Larry Fitzgerald, Denarius Moore, Justin Blackmon

Week 14 Matchup to Watch: New Orleans Saints at New York Giants – For the second week in a row, I'm looking at Big Blue here for a potential explosion in the passing game. It wasn't exactly a points bonanza last week against the Redskins, but sometimes those division rivalries can change a lot of what we would normally expect. Not in this case though, as the Saints give up an average of 287 yards per game and have coughed up 23 touchdowns through the air this year. They are weak in every aspect of pass coverage, so look for Eli Manning to find Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks in usual fashion, while we could see another explosive week from tight end Martellus Bennett. For the Saints, you can't tell me that Drew Brees isn't looking for some vindication this week. I don't see him tossing five INTs to zero TDs this week at all, especially against a defense that has allowed 245 passing yards per game and 19 passing touchdowns. Expect Marques Colston and Lance Moore to get their usual work in, but look out for Devery Henderson as a sleeper pick for me this week. The G-Men have played the tight end pretty strongly this year, so temper your expectations for Jimmy Graham.

Potential Week 14 Breakouts:Dennis Pitta, Reggie Wayne, Owen Daniels
Potential Week 14 Busts:Percy Harvin, Brandon LaFell, Brandon Pettigrew

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