On Target: More Than Just The Looks

Written by

Updated on November 20, 2012 5:25PM EST

It was another strong passing week in the NFL here in Week 11, but it was more of a feast or famine distribution as only six receivers cleared the century mark, tying Week 7 for the lowest number of 100-yard receivers this season. Sure, we had a number of the usual suspects pony up some killer fantasy points, but between injuries, ineffective ground games and under-performing quarterbacks, several players on whom we count each week failed to provide us with the necessary production to keep our fantasy teams in the win column.

Let's have a look at who did what…

Top Targets for Week 11

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	273	1	55	19	14	2	22.2%	73.7%	34.5%
Reggie Wayne	WR	IND	72	0	50	18	7	0	0.0%	38.9%	36.0%
Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	145	1	50	15	12	1	20.0%	80.0%	30.0%
Roddy White	WR	ATL	123	0	46	13	8	2	28.6%	61.5%	28.3%
Justin Blackmon	WR	JAX	237	1	35	13	7	1	14.3%	53.8%	37.1%
Randall Cobb	WR	GB	74	1	37	12	9	0	0.0%	75.0%	32.4%
Anquan Boldin	WR	BAL	79	0	32	12	8	0	0.0%	66.7%	37.5%
A.J. Green	WR	CIN	91	1	29	12	6	1	50.0%	50.0%	41.4%
Miles Austin	WR	DAL	58	0	50	12	6	1	20.0%	50.0%	24.0%
Danario Alexander	WR	SD	96	2	40	11	7	1	50.0%	63.6%

Let's have a look at who did what…

Top Targets for Week 11

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	273	1	55	19	14	2	22.2%	73.7%	34.5%
Reggie Wayne	WR	IND	72	0	50	18	7	0	0.0%	38.9%	36.0%
Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	145	1	50	15	12	1	20.0%	80.0%	30.0%
Roddy White	WR	ATL	123	0	46	13	8	2	28.6%	61.5%	28.3%
Justin Blackmon	WR	JAX	237	1	35	13	7	1	14.3%	53.8%	37.1%
Randall Cobb	WR	GB	74	1	37	12	9	0	0.0%	75.0%	32.4%
Anquan Boldin	WR	BAL	79	0	32	12	8	0	0.0%	66.7%	37.5%
A.J. Green	WR	CIN	91	1	29	12	6	1	50.0%	50.0%	41.4%
Miles Austin	WR	DAL	58	0	50	12	6	1	20.0%	50.0%	24.0%
Danario Alexander	WR	SD	96	2	40	11	7	1	50.0%	63.6%	27.5%
Wes Welker	WR	NE	80	0	35	11	7	2	50.0%	63.6%	31.4%
Dallas Clark	TE	TB	58	1	46	11	7	2	33.3%	63.6%	23.9%
Danny Amendola	WR	STL	41	0	44	11	7	2	33.3%	63.6%	25.0%
Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	94	1	46	11	6	1	16.7%	54.5%	23.9%
Dwayne Allen	TE	IND	69	0	50	11	6	0	0.0%	54.5%	22.0%
Davone Bess	WR	MIA	50	1	28	11	6	1	100.0%	54.5%	39.3%
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	143	1	39	11	5	1	33.3%	45.5%	28.2%
Brandon Myers	TE	OAK	55	1	40	10	6	3	50.0%	60.0%	25.0%
Tony Scheffler	TE	DET	22	0	39	10	2	1	33.3%	20.0%	25.6%
Garrett Graham	TE	HOU	82	2	55	9	8	2	22.2%	88.9%	16.4%
T.Y. Hilton	WR	IND	100	2	50	9	6	1	50.0%	66.7%	18.0%
Steve Johnson	WR	BUF	79	0	27	9	6	1	20.0%	66.7%	33.3%
Owen Daniels	TE	HOU	57	0	55	9	6	2	22.2%	66.7%	16.4%
Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	42	1	42	9	3	3	60.0%	33.3%	21.4%
Mike Williams	WR	TB	29	0	46	9	3	0	0.0%	33.3%	19.6%
DeSean Jackson	WR	PHI	5	0	46	9	2	1	100.0%	22.2%	19.6%

With the help of an overtime period, a red hot Matt Schaub and a Jacksonville pass defense that looked like something out of a high school game, Andre Johnson turned in a beast of a performance this week, leading the NFL in targets, receptions and receiving yards for the week. It was his highest fantasy point total since Week 1 and his numbers were staggering in PPR play. You couldn't ask for much more, and with upcoming match-ups against Detroit, Tennessee and New England could just be scratching the surface here.

After what seemed like the slowest start of his career, Calvin Johnson has now passed the century mark in yardage in each of his last three games and has found the end zone in his last two. Perhaps it has something to do with his 75-percent catch rate over the last three weeks, a number he has most certainly improved upon here. Through his first seven games, he had a catch rate of just 54.7-percent, and while this was a tough week for him catch-wise, he has definitely gotten back to the Megatron we all loved and revered.

We could go on and on about some of the staples here, but let's take a look at some of the potential outliers…

Justin Blackmon finally found a quarterback he could jell with and his performance and the team's investment in him could spark an interesting debate if Blaine Gabbert is healthy enough to play in Week 12. We've always known the potential was there, but he had been a disaster up until now. Maybe Gabbert is their choice for the future, but If Chad Henne is truly the answer, then the Jags really have no choice but to make the switch. It's not like Gabbert has done anything special to date, has he? The biggest loser in this could be Laurent Robinson who failed to catch a pass all day and saw just two looks the entire game.

It looks like Danario Alexander is turning into the top guy in San Diego lately and should be treated as such after these last two weeks. Since the benching of Robert Meachem, Alexander has 18 targets with 12 catches for 230 yards and three touchdowns which actually surpass the two-week production of both Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates combined.

Until we get a full report on the concussion situation for Donnie Avery, I wouldn't get too excited about T.Y. Hilton's performance just yet. He's been spectacular in two of the last three weeks so that is certainly working in his favor, but in order to be counted on each and every week, Avery needs to take a back seat. His targets have been a little on the inconsistent side.

With Brandon Pettigrew and Owen Daniels still active in their respective houses, endorsing a pick-up of either Tony Scheffler or Garrett Graham isn't quite in the cards just yet. First of all, Scheffler's catch rate for the day doesn't exactly have anyone brimming with confidence, including Matthew Stafford, and Daniels was banged up and in coverage which allowed Graham to break out. We'll see how it plays out, but with it being Week 11 and these being season-highs in targets for both, the outlook is murky, at best.

Welcome back to the NFL, Dallas Clark. The 11 targets was a season high and he's now found the end zone in two straight games. Josh Freeman is suddenly expanding his target selection, so if the match-up is right, like it is in Weeks 14 and 15, you may want to give him a look.

And finally, another tight end emerging is Dwayne Allen who saw a season-high 11 targets and looks like he's on Andrew Luck's radar a lot more than Coby Fleener was. Maybe Luck and Fleener didn't get along in college as well as we thought they did.

Now let's check the aggregate…

Target Percentage Leaderboard

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Brandon Marshall	WR	CHI	925	8	297	107	69	15	48.4%	64.5%	36.0%
Reggie Wayne	WR	IND	1003	3	412	130	76	10	27.0%	58.5%	31.6%
A.J. Green	WR	CIN	911	10	345	104	64	16	37.2%	61.5%	30.1%
Dwayne Bowe	WR	KC	626	3	336	93	49	4	22.2%	52.7%	27.7%
Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	743	7	376	104	60	13	23.2%	57.7%	27.7%
Steve Smith	WR	CAR	710	1	304	84	44	8	19.0%	52.4%	27.6%
Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	863	7	319	88	42	15	31.9%	47.7%	27.6%
Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	596	4	382	104	52	15	25.4%	50.0%	27.2%
Brian Hartline	WR	MIA	790	1	327	88	53	10	25.0%	60.2%	26.9%
Percy Harvin	WR	MIN	677	3	316	85	62	5	11.4%	72.9%	26.9%
Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	870	3	335	90	60	5	16.1%	66.7%	26.9%
Wes Welker	WR	NE	890	2	396	105	73	10	16.9%	69.5%	26.5%
Davone Bess	WR	MIA	586	1	327	82	48	4	10.0%	58.5%	25.1%
Michael Crabtree	WR	SF	541	5	266	66	47	5	18.5%	71.2%	24.8%
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	1117	3	440	107	65	11	15.7%	60.7%	24.3%
Jason Wittten	TE	DAL	636	1	404	97	73	10	21.7%	75.3%	24.0%
Roddy White	WR	ATL	946	4	397	93	62	13	23.2%	66.7%	23.4%
Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	933	5	372	85	57	9	15.8%	67.1%	22.8%
Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	539	3	304	69	45	10	23.8%	65.2%	22.7%
Sidney Rice	WR	SEA	475	6	255	57	34	8	21.1%	59.6%	22.4%
DeSean Jackson	WR	PHI	691	2	394	87	44	8	21.6%	50.6%	22.1%
Anquan Boldin	WR	BAL	627	1	345	76	48	5	16.1%	63.2%	22.0%
Tony Gonzalez	TE	ATL	650	6	397	87	64	11	19.6%	73.6%	21.9%
Danny Amendola	WR	STL	538	2	337	72	50	10	27.8%	69.4%	21.4%
Mike Williams	WR	TB	597	5	319	68	34	9	19.1%	50.0%	21.3%
Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	735	4	404	86	57	8	17.4%	66.3%	21.3%
Eric Decker	WR	DEN	621	8	372	79	50	17	29.8%	63.3%	21.2%
Marques Colston	WR	NO	721	7	406	86	51	18	28.1%	59.3%	21.2%
Mike Wallace	WR	PIT	565	6	369	78	46	13	24.5%	59.0%	21.1%
Miles Austin	WR	DAL	727	4	404	84	49	9	19.6%	58.3%	20.8%
Brandon Lloyd	WR	NE	525	3	396	82	46	12	20.3%	56.1%	20.7%
Justin Blackmon	WR	JAX	486	2	349	72	33	4	8.3%	45.8%	20.6%
Torrey Smith	WR	BAL	555	7	345	71	32	6	19.4%	45.1%	20.6%
Randall Cobb	WR	GB	574	7	357	71	54	7	15.2%	76.1%	19.9%
Kendall Wright	WR	TEN	390	4	353	70	43	11	25.6%	61.4%	19.8%
Owen Daniels	TE	HOU	535	5	335	65	43	6	19.4%	66.2%	19.4%
Julio Jones	WR	ATL	736	5	397	77	47	11	19.6%	61.0%	19.4%
Jeremy Kerley	WR	NYJ	578	2	321	62	38	7	18.4%	61.3%	19.3%
Rob Gronkowski	TE	NE	748	10	396	76	53	17	28.8%	69.7%	19.2%
Andre Roberts	WR	ARI	547	5	382	73	41	5	8.5%	56.2%	19.1%
Jimmy Graham	TE	NO	562	8	406	77	51	11	17.2%	66.2%	19.0%
Donnie Avery	WR	IND	553	1	412	78	41	6	16.2%	52.6%	18.9%
James Jones	WR	GB	495	8	357	67	42	13	28.3%	62.7%	18.8%
Malcom Floyd	WR	SD	639	3	340	63	43	0	0.0%	68.3%	18.5%
Vernon Davis	TE	SF	487	5	266	49	35	4	14.8%	71.4%	18.4%
Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	306	6	316	58	34	10	22.7%	58.6%	18.4%
Cecil Shorts	WR	JAX	642	5	349	64	32	8	16.7%	50.0%	18.3%
Jermaine Gresham	TE	CIN	517	3	345	63	43	7	16.3%	68.3%	18.3%
Denarius Moore	WR	OAK	584	5	417	75	35	12	21.4%	46.7%	18.0%
Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	499	1	369	66	42	0	0.0%	63.6%	17.9%
Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	577	5	357	63	43	9	19.6%	68.3%	17.6%
Donald Jones	WR	BUF	391	4	324	56	34	10	25.0%	60.7%	17.3%
Brent Celek	TE	PHI	509	1	394	68	41	9	24.3%	60.3%	17.3%
Dennis Pitta	TE	BAL	381	3	345	59	38	9	29.0%	64.4%	17.1%
Heath Miller	TE	PIT	453	6	369	62	45	17	32.1%	72.6%	16.8%
Brandon LaFell	WR	CAR	489	3	304	51	29	5	11.9%	56.9%	16.8%
Lance Moore	WR	NO	638	4	406	67	42	7	10.9%	62.7%	16.5%
Jeremy Maclin	WR	PHI	449	4	394	65	36	8	21.6%	55.4%	16.5%
Golden Tate	WR	SEA	334	6	255	42	26	8	21.1%	61.9%	16.5%
Scott Chandler	TE	BUF	380	5	324	53	29	8	20.0%	54.7%	16.4%

Ask any Wes Welker owner if the production has matched the draft position and even the happiest of owners in PPR leagues will tell you no. However, things could change now that Rob Gronkowski is out with a broken arm and Brandon Lloyd has been demoted out of two-receiver sets. Sure, Julian Edelman will steal some looks, but Tom Brady should start leaning on his go-to guy a little more often in the coming weeks.

While it's too soon to tell, it would appear that Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill is starting to distribute the ball a little more evenly to his receivers as Brian Hartline and Davone Bess are seeing the gap between their target percentages start to close. Bess found the endzone for the first time this season and if he can start garnering some additional red zone looks over the next few weeks, he could really increase his overall value.

Suddenly the gap between Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker is starting to widen again. Decker is still getting his red zone targets and finding the endzone, but he's only seen nine targets over his last two games as opposed to 20 for Thomas in the same span. I wouldn't say Decker should be downgraded to a WR3 just yet, but he's going to need to rack up some more yardage to maintain his WR2 status.

Julio Jones' ankle issue is obviously hampering his overall value, but Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez owners are more than happy to reap the benefits. Remember when these three were right on top of each other in target percentage? Now if we can only get Matt Ryan to never play like he did in Week 11 ever again…

With 23 targets, 18 catches and 143 yards over his last two games, it is safe to say that Danny Amendola is officially back and Sam Bradford is one happy quarterback. He should continue to climb back up the TPL in no time.

Carolina's Brandon LaFell has finally found his way back to the TPL this week and should continue to stay here with some favorable match-ups coming. Starts against Philadelphia, Kansas City and Atlanta should be productive as the first two seem to have a bit of trouble with opposing number two receivers while the Atlanta match-up could be a strong passing day if the Panthers need to play catch-up.

And finally, beware of receivers on teams with shaky quarterback situations right now. Pittsburgh, Arizona, Philadelphia and San Francisco for right now with Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Chicago also looking potentially suspect.

Just missing the cut this week:Hakeem Nicks (16.2%), Brandon Myers (16.1%), Josh Morgan (16.0%), Mario Manningham (15.8%), Dexter McCluster (15.8%), Brandon Gibson (15.7%)

TPL Risers to Monitor:Golden Tate, Scott Chandler, Vernon Davis
TPL Fallers to Monitor:Jeremy Maclin, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Lloyd

Week 12 Match-up to Watch: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars – A lot could unfold in this match-up of two AFC bottom-feeders, both of who have suspect pass defenses. Jake Locker returns from a bye week having now spent two weeks studying how to expose a Jags defense that allows 277 passing yards per game with 14 passing touchdowns. Look for Kendall Wright and Nate Washington to excel. On the other side, you've got a definite QB controversy here with a whole lot of potential. The Titans pass D allows an average of 266 yards per game through the air while they've also coughed up 20 passing touchdowns. Cecil Shorts could have big days regardless of who is under center while Justin Blackmon and Marcedes Lewis could be in for another strong week with Chad Henne at the helm.

Potential Week 12 Breakouts:Sidney Rice, Dustin Keller, Michael Crabtree
Potential Week 12 Busts:Kyle Rudolph, James Jones, Vincent Jackson

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Have a question or need some advice from Howard Bender? Follow @rotobuzzguy on Twitter, or feel free to e-mail him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com