This article is part of our On Target series.
The way a lot of my drafts have shaken out this season, I quite frequently end up with a glut of running backs in the single-digit rounds and I'm generally not a fan of the many of the later-round RB's (there are a few like Jordan Wilkins and Rob Kelley in whom I invested). This often leads me to drafting players in the 12-16th rounds who might be needed as a WR3-4 or a flex play on a given week.
As such, we know that volume is the No. 1 indicator of future fantasy points. You can argue about skill or talent for weeks on end, but if a player is on the field and getting targets, they are likely to be usable for fantasy. This is a list of players who are outside the top 50 in WR ADP per FantasyPros who have a realistic path to 100 targets, ranked from most to least likely.
John Ross
A.J. Green had 134 targets last season as the No. 1 WR in 16 games for the Bengals and No. 2 WR Brandon LaFell had 89 targets … and LaFell is no longer on the team. The offense projects much better in 2018 than in 2017. Ross is the projected starter opposite AJG and even if he's not great, he's an upgrade on the boring LaFell who is now departed. Joe Mixon will get all of the early down work with Jeremy Hill gone, another upgrade. Most important, Tyler Eifert seems to
The way a lot of my drafts have shaken out this season, I quite frequently end up with a glut of running backs in the single-digit rounds and I'm generally not a fan of the many of the later-round RB's (there are a few like Jordan Wilkins and Rob Kelley in whom I invested). This often leads me to drafting players in the 12-16th rounds who might be needed as a WR3-4 or a flex play on a given week.
As such, we know that volume is the No. 1 indicator of future fantasy points. You can argue about skill or talent for weeks on end, but if a player is on the field and getting targets, they are likely to be usable for fantasy. This is a list of players who are outside the top 50 in WR ADP per FantasyPros who have a realistic path to 100 targets, ranked from most to least likely.
John Ross
A.J. Green had 134 targets last season as the No. 1 WR in 16 games for the Bengals and No. 2 WR Brandon LaFell had 89 targets … and LaFell is no longer on the team. The offense projects much better in 2018 than in 2017. Ross is the projected starter opposite AJG and even if he's not great, he's an upgrade on the boring LaFell who is now departed. Joe Mixon will get all of the early down work with Jeremy Hill gone, another upgrade. Most important, Tyler Eifert seems to be healthy, which should increase longer scoring drives as he is a unique weapon when on the field. Lazor's 2015 Miami offense split the WR2 targets between DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills, but those together equaled 113 targets and in 2014 both Mike Wallace and Jarvis Landry saw more than 110 targets. If Ross can play at all and stays healthy, he is one of the surest bets for volume in the later rounds.
Michael Gallup
Michael Gallup is better than Allen Hurns and has legitimate star potential. This rookie wide receiver class was not as ballyhooed as years past but Gallup has an argument to finish with the most raw volume of anyone. NFL.Com's Bucky Brooks wrote this after Gallup's touchdown in Week 1 of the preseason: "The rookie receiver has been the buzz of Cowboys training camp as an athletic playmaker with WR1 potential. Gallup displayed those skills in the preseason opener when he raced past the 49ers' defense on a 30-yard touchdown down the boundary." It is true; if you run a Google News search for Gallup, there is nothing but breathless and glowing reports from Cowboys training camp and very little about Hurns. The last time a Cowboys No. 2 WR got more than 100 targets was in 2012; that was also the last time that the No. 2 Cowboys WR under Jason Garret wasn't Terrance Williams. When Dez Bryant and Miles Austin were on the roster, both got used in addition to Jason Witten. This season, the team doesn't really have a starting TE, a pass-catching running back or anyone established other than Beasley. Gallup is a close to a lay up for me at his current ADP.
Taywan Taylor
Now, we are starting to drift into longshot territory. #FootballTwitter absolutely loves Taywan, and when he took a 47-yard touchdown to the house in Week 2 of the preseason, the ADP spike was inevitable. Even LeBron James reacted to Taylor's 95-yard, two-TD game! However, the team did just offer injured WR Rishard Matthews a one-year extension, which seems to suggest he will be back and healthy for Week 1, and the Titans also have potential superstar Corey Davis raring to go in addition to Dion Lewis and Delanie Walker. The upside scenario for Taylor is that new OC Matt LaFleur drastically increases the amount of 11 personnel the Titans run, Matthews' never gets fully healthy, Delanie Walker plays like a 34-year-old and Mariota becomes the offensive power that he was in college. All of these outcomes are plausible, not to mention that Taylor himself is quite good and might force his way onto the field with his elite short-area agility and reliable hands.
Josh Doctson
To refresh: Josh Doctson is actually good. He is 6-foot-2, 202, with a 93rd percentile catch radius, an elite agility score for a player SMALLER than him and didn't have the disaster of a season that you think he did last year. Some second-year comparable players to Doctson's sophmore effort (Less than 85 targets, six or fewer touchdowns, more than 500 receiving yards but less than 700) are Kenny Britt, Santonio Holmes, Marvin Jones, Greg Jennings, Javon Walker, Robert Meachem and Austin Collie. It's a spotted list in terms of future NFL contributors, but his second season was clearly not a death sentence. Doctson is more capable than Paul Richardson at playing Flanker (the most important position in the West Coast Offense). Richarson will be the split end while Crowder is the slot WR, which leaves Doctson good intermediate and deep routes. Alex Smith was the most efficient deep ball QB in the NFL last year and the injury to Derrius Guice is going to make this Washington team pass more than it intended to. Doctson DOES have loads of competition with Richardson, Crowder, Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson, so this is certainly not a victory lap, but I am a long-term believer in Doctson's skill set.
Corey Coleman
Corey Coleman is better than Kelvin Benjamin. Benjamin's yards per game since coming into the league: 63, 58, 49 and then 36 with Buffalo last year in six games. He did have one 100-yard game with Cam last season (converting four targets into four catches) but had only one other 100-yard outing since his rookie season. Coleman was mostly horrible last season, but his quality of QB was legitimately the worst in the league; per PFF he had only 27 catchable passes in 50 targets last season. Coleman was a Biletnikoff winner with 2,482 yards and 31 touchdowns his sophomore/junior years at Baylor who then went to the worst and most dysfunctional coaching staff in the NFL and requested a trade when he got benched. This is easily the longest shot on this list because 1) Coleman is not even guaranteed to start over Zay Jones, 2) the Bills might pass the least in the NFL and 3) the starting QB situation could be so bad that no one is fantasy viable in the whole offense. All that said, I believe that Coleman has untapped potential and the Bills can get it out of him.
