NFL Reactions: The Sunday Before the Super Bowl

The Sunday before the Super Bowl is always a weird day. After 21 weeks of routine on NFL Sundays, the afternoon is eerily quiet. Fortunately, I was on the Rotowire show on the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Channel to talk football for two hours. It helped ease the withdrawal symptoms. After the show, I went to the gym. While doing cardio, the NFL's revamped Pro Bowl activities were on the television. Not that I'd ever watch the Pro Bowl, but when I saw Jared Goff leading the NFC, I could not have been any less interested. Anyway, with no real football to react to, let's talk about the Super Bowl!

Sunday Musings

• I know, with one game on the slate and two weeks to talk about it, this game gets picked apart like no other. What I will do is share what we may expect to see during the game. Maybe it can serve as a viewer guide. Or possibly it can help when betting on the game, be it ATS or props.
• When the Eagles have the ball, they should have a number of advantages.
• The first advantage is their offensive line. Although this is one of the better run-defense units we've seen from the Chiefs in years, The Eagles offensive line should be able to impose their will on this unit. Philly could very easily decide they don't want to get into a shootout with Patrick Mahomes. If that's the case, they could choose to lean on Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts in the running game. If the Eagles should have a lead with say eight or so minutes left in the fourth quarter and the ball in their own territory, don't be surprised if they run the entire clock out.
• Also, if the Chiefs decide to be aggressive with the blitz, it may not be very effective against an offensive line that has no weak links. As great as Chris Jones is, he'll likely be double-teamed often. And there won't likely be a spot that he can be moved to create an advantage for the defense. Back to the blitz, should those show early success, don't be surprised if Hurts is coached up to tuck the ball and run. If Kansas City sacrifices bodies at the second level to blitz, Hurts could make them pay with his legs.
• The concern for the Eagles would be if the Chiefs find a way to get Hurts on the move as a passer. And while doing so, they may want to play a lot of zone. During the season, though in a very small sample size, Hurts has been at his worst when trying to pass while moving out of the pocket against zone defenses. Should that work, an interception and/or fumble could easily change the course of the game.
• When the Chiefs have the ball, they may need Mahomes to be really close to 100 percent on his ankle against this defense. Unlike when they faced the Jaguars and Bengals, the Eagles have a pair of excellent outside cornerbacks along with five excellent pass rushers in their front seven. Even with a wide receiver group that is banged up coming into this game, if Mahomes is able to buy time and make plays, he's often too much for any defense to handle. If he isn't himself, this defense could make things tough on him. However, I've learned that betting against Mahomes is foolish.
• Also, Kansas City may want to attack the Eagles in the middle of the field. Throwing away from cornerbacks James Bradberry and Darius Slay may be the best approach. Although C.J. Gardner-Jonhson and Avonte Maddox are solid in pass coverage, they provide nowhere near the level of coverage that the outside corners do. Also, the other safeties and depth corners are adequate, but not excellent in coverage. Obviously, the middle of the field is where Travis Kelce often lives. It's a great place for the Chiefs to have an advantage.
• Usually, the Chiefs get good rushing production out of Isiah Pacheco. With defenses normally having to worry about the pass, his downhill running style often gets him quickly to the second level. Philly may not need to overplay their defenders too far downfield. And even though may think their run defense is a liability, they gave up just 4.09 yards per carry in the second half of the season. This may not be a mismatch.
• I'll plan on posting another 'Reactions' column within an hour or so after the completion of the Super Bowl. During the week, I'll be on Rotowire Twitter and Instagram quite a bit doing preview videos. I'll also do a livestream Q&A on RotoWire YouTube Sunday at 11 AM ET. I'll also provide analysis on prop bets, and you can also find out to get a free copy of my 21-page Super Bowl notes document on Twitter @JimCoventryNFL.